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Forecast predicts less snow in Canada this year

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CTV National News: John Vennavally-Rao reports
After seeing unseasonably warm temperatures, the forecast is about to flip for eastern parts of the country. Those in the West and North though, may feel less chilly.
Canada AM: David Phillips, senior climatologist
A climatologist with Environment Canada shares what Canadians from coast to coast can expect when it comes to winter weather for 2010.
CTV Toronto: Tom Hayes speaks with golfers
Toronto went through the month of November without a single flake of snow, a remarkable turnaround from 2008. Tom Hayes reports.
CTV Toronto: Andria Case on a sunny day in the city
This could be the first time we've had no snow this month since the weather records began but outside of Toronto, people have not been as lucky.
CTV Montreal: Transitioning to winter
If there's one thing people love to talk about, it's the weather -- especially when we grumble about soggy summers or winters without end. Award-winning weather expert David Phillips chats with Todd van der Heyden about the changing seasons

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tue. Dec. 1 2009 10:17 PM ET

It may not be a white Christmas in Canada after all as a senior climatologist predicts the country will likely see less snow this year.

Dave Phillips issued his winter forecast Tuesday during an interview with CTV's Canada AM.

Phillips said the current weather patterns lead him to predict warmer temperatures in the north and the west, near normal conditions in northern Ontario but cooler than typical weather in eastern Canada.

He explained that the season has seen moderate El Nino breezes -- the warm currents that come off the Pacific region. He said when the El Nino breezes are intensely warm, they can make their way all the way to the east coast of Canada but that this year, the tropical weather pattern has only wafted to Winnipeg.

"What happens is that the cold air that is pent up in the North does an end sweep so that we have the east freezing in the dark and the west basking in the sunlight and that's what we're seeing," he said.

Cold temperatures are expected from Windsor, Ontario to the Atlantic Provinces.

But the cold weather doesn't necessarily mean there will be a heavy dumping of snow, Phillips said.

Nonetheless, snow shouldn't be a problem in British Columbia when it hosts the 2010 Olympic Winter Games this February. Phillips said the weather should co-operate nicely, especially in Whistler.

"Whistler is almost immune (to weather patterns). It's so high up -- 1,900 meters -- and it's not affected by these Spanish El Nino breezes.

The case is not the same in the Maritimes, but ski hill manager Mark Rutherford says the snow will come.

"We see the temperatures are looking like they will start falling for us and our snow making efforts will come into play," he said.

Snow in T.O.

In Toronto, snow was a no-show in November but the first hours of December saw a light dusting of the white stuff in the city's north end.

The north end of the city saw light snow fall at around 3 a.m., just hours after Toronto ended a month-long streak by not having any traceable amounts of snow on the ground.

According to Environment Canada's records, this is the first time in recorded history - 70 years - that snow has not fallen in the city in November. In an earlier interview, Phillips said some weather records suggest the warmer November weather may have broken a 162-year snow streak.

Snow was also reported throughout Ontario's York region.

Monday night's snow melted by sunrise but nonetheless, the winter weather prompted police to warn commuters about driving at high speeds Tuesday morning and to be mindful of slippery roads.

Environment Canada is predicting more wet flurries in the city for Thursday.

Comments are now closed for this story

dano
said
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Keep guessing boys, can't believe they get paid for this. They can't forecast the weather 3 days in advance let alone a few months


Portes
said
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Less hurricanes this year and a warmer winter, thanks to El Nino a recurring cycle in the Pacific ocean, happens every 8 to 10 years. Does not take a genius to figure this out


Frank Buchan
said
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Based upon their past performance then we can expect to be buried up to our necks after the first snowfall. I realize we need these folks to make the effort, but long term forecasts are almost always impossible-- and why do the private meteorologists seem to have a better hit/miss ratio?


Edb
said
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Isn't this the same guy who predicted a warmer and drier summer for southern Ontario? We all know how that turned out. I guess if he is correct, the climate gate hacks can put it to global warming and weasel some more free money from the rest of us. Gotta save the planet you know. And what better way than with fabricated data and a private jet.


jay, ottawa
said
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Portes said "Less hurricanes this year and a warmer winter, thanks to El Nino a recurring cycle in the Pacific ocean, happens every 8 to 10 years. Does not take a genius to figure this out" >> this is the most strangely hostile posting I've seen in a long time. What's with that genius line?


LAC
said
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As usual he mentions Toronto. Toronto is always mentioned. He also mentions Northern Ontario, it's a big province, what's the predicitons for it? I'm sure they're way off anyway. It will be sunny, with some cloud and some precipitation and some wind....that way they cover all weather.

Rick in NB, Ste Marie
said
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@ Portes. I Guess your right, you came up with it.


Anne
said
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Yes well, it seems to me that weather forecasters are most accurate when they do what the rest of us do - look out the window. Otherwise, not so much. We'll still tune up the snowblower.


Elaine
said
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Is this not the same guy that said we were going to have a very hot, dry summer?I rest my case.


Constance Bay
said
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Why is this even news. The weather forecasters have proven to be almost useless over the past few years. I'll beleive it when I see it. Of course there is always the small chance that they are right and that gives them the credibility to keep on forecasting. Keep guessing guys. Some day you will get it right.


James B.
said
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His analogy of eastern Canada is inaccurate. though the future is, literally, unknown, here in N.B., up until this past full moon, it has been substantially warm - day and night. the most amount of "freezing in the dark" we've experienced is the frost, which quickly disappears when the sun rises over the horizon. that's NOT to say things can't change though.


Craig from NS
said
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T.O. should continue to keep the military on speed dial, just in case. ;)


Mike Anthony
said
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Weather pattern, smeather pattern. I could have told him that without all the expensive electronic gadgets meteorologists use. Pay attention to the insects and you'll get it right most, if not all the time. The wasps are nesting in the ground this year and the Wooly Bears weren't very heavily coated either. That indicates that not much snow is coming.


Doug @ BC
said
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Well, I certainly don't agree with "Portes" on every issue .But,to defend the post,and from someone living on the west coast,El Nino,and the weather patterns that it brings, are indeed very predictable.Within reasonable limits,of course. As to the snow,given what Vancouver got last year,a whole lot less would be welcome for most of us.Though,for those who have never been here in winter,a swing of only a couple of degrees,and we put the snowshovels away and start building arks. I don't put a lot of faith in these longer term forecasts.But,there is one thing I can say with certainty,no matter what the weather,or the entire winter turns out to be,the spin masters will be out in full force,It will be a political tool if we get snow,and it will be a political tool if we don't get a single flake. Live,my friends.Like it or not,the universe will unfold as it should.Live up to your beliefs and don't waste your prescious time debating every thing under the sun.In a lot of cases you are simply conducting a duel of wits with unarmed opponents.


Patrick Beliveau
said
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Portes.... El Nino happens at irregular intervals every 2-7 years... not 8-10... might be why genius' are having a hard time figuring it out.


Jjaycee
said
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West Coast "basking" in sunlight? Try record snow falls in the mountains (Whistler/Blackcomb are deliriously happy) and record rain measurements through the lower mainland. Where the snow is not falling is accross the Prairie grain belt-but then they don't count until a Steak in Toronto costs $35 and a Loaf of Bread cost about $7..


ian patterson
said
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how much are we the taxpayer on the hook for this gong show of enviornment canada. has anyone the time to look back on philips predictions the past few years, what are we paying for here.


Bryan
said
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I just decided I want to buy a snowblower and you went and spoiled it!!


Portes
said
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Rick in NBYou figured it out so you must be one of the people that I am talking about. My point was and I am sorry that I did not explain. I meant that all the people at Enviroment Canada can figure it out since it is an El Nino year and that is all I meant. It does not take a genius to figure out the patterns


D from T
said
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This guy is virtually always 100% wrong in his predictions. Im betting on a snow filled winter.


Tim
said
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This is great to hear after we here in central Alberta just got 20 cm of snow in the last 24 hours. Does life exist outside of Ontario?


margie
said
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I'm sorry but between everyone....these guys can't organize a trip to the can!!!!! In Ottawa here it's bad enough not getting it right day by day...so forget long term...I'm getting out my super warm coat and high boots cause we're gonna have a ton of snow...and I don't even get paid big bucks to say that!.....LOL


Decon
said
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Too funny.
People actually getting upset over someone's predictions.
It is the weather.


Brian fr Langley
said
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To Decon, They used to call it the weather. Now they call it global warming.


Jeff, Calgary
said
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Lets not forget that the mathematical theory of chaotic systems came out of atmospheric research. Given the nature of the system they are dealing with its amazing that they get it right as often as they do. With the math involved it is easier in some ways to predict trends than details. Some locations are harder than others. Calgary for example can have several very different systems over or near the city at the same time, with the junction point drifting around very erratically.


stubblejumper
said
0 0

What's the old adage across this nation?: If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes.


SJC
said
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I've found the best predictor of Winter to be the animals around your house especially if you have a backyard. The squirrels I've observed this year (in my neighbourhood in Toronto) seem to be as fat as they were two years ago....Remember the mounds of snow we had in 2007-08? (Last year (2008-09) they were not as fat...and true enough the snow petered out by February). My (amateur) prediction is a LOT of snow for TO this year. Not sure how cold it will get though :)


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