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Is Tory victory in a Bloc stronghold a 'game changer'?
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More evidence that there won't be a general election for a while...
Ron
Is Tory victory in a Bloc stronghold a 'game changer'?
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Is Tory victory in a Bloc stronghold a 'game changer'?
CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Tue. Nov. 10 2009 10:44 PM ET
The Conservative government put the Bloc Quebecois on notice Monday night with its byelection win in a Bloc stronghold, proving that its fortunes in Quebec are stronger than pundits predicted, experts say.
Conservative candidate Bernard Genereux won in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup by more than 1,400 votes over Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon, grabbing a riding that's been held by the BQ since 1993.
The win "is a game-changer off the island of Montreal," L. Ian Macdonald, editor of Policy Options magazine, told CTV.ca in a telephone interview. "This is a Bloc bastion that has fallen to the Conservatives not by a few votes but by 1,500, five points."
"Five points is a big win," Macdonald added. "We're not in recount territory here. This means that they won all the way down the river, from Montmagny all the way down to Riviere du Loup."
Recent polls have shown Conservative support in Quebec to be either stagnant or on the decline, while Liberal fortunes have been on the rise.
But the win, Macdonald said, clearly indicates that the Conservatives have established themselves as the competitive federalist alternative in Quebec, the so-called "block the Bloc party."
"The Conservatives...had a message which was, 'You can be in government,'" Macdonald said. "And since they weren't the issue -- it wasn't one of those by-elections where you get to fire the boss -- they were able to make that case."
Byelections are viewed as a measure of the party-in-power's fortunes, and are often won by opposition parties.
But the Conservatives pulled out two of four ridings up for grabs Monday night, with the Liberals finishing third in all of them.
However, the Liberals were not expected to challenge in any of the ridings, having placed a distant third in three in the 2008 election, and a distant second in the fourth.
"The Liberals have not been players in any of these ridings for many, many, many years," CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife told News Channel on Tuesday morning. "And while clearly it's not good news for the Liberal Party, it would be a disservice to them to say that this is bad news for them because they haven't placed very well. They haven't placed well for many years."
In the three other byelections Monday night:
- The Bloc won the Quebec riding of Hochelaga by more than 5,500 votes over the NDP, with the Liberals and Conservatives trailing in third and fourth place, respectively.
- The NDP beat the Conservatives in New Westminster-Coquitlam by more than 3,300 votes, with the Liberals again running a distant third.
- The Conservatives re-claimed the Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley by 4,900 votes over the NDP, with the Liberals third.
The Conservative win in Riviere du Loup was not a complete shock, Macdonald said, given that eight of 10, now nine of 11, Tory Quebec MPs are from the 418 area code region, in the eastern part of the province.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper spent the summer and early fall shoring up support in the 418, Macdonald said, including making a number of government announcements in the region.
Ultimately, the Conservatives have shown that they have not been hurt by crises such as swine flu and the economic downturn and have emerged as a threat in Quebec, Fife said.
"(Riviere du Loup) is a francophone area, it's rural Quebec and the Conservatives won there, and they are going to be a threat to the Bloc Quebecois outside of the island of Montreal," Fife said. "And the Bloc, if anybody, have to be very uneasy about this Conservative win."
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I applaud the budget, even though Health Care and education may stay unscathed. Sadly this cannot last and I worry to later this year where cuts will become enviable. If anything, this provides the Wildrose Alliance plenty of ammo when an election is called.


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Game's the same
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The fact is, the Liberal party did WORSE in 3 out of the 4 elections than they did in 2008. That's right. Under Dion, the Liberals scored better in the two Quebec and 1 BC contests. This is reason enough to label them the big losers of the evening - Ignatieff, despite personally campaigning in all four ridings, could not meet the bare minimum in expectation - hold the line on support. But, that's OK folks - Mr. Fife is happy to pretend that since nothing was expected of the Liberals and they delivered less than nothing, all is well with their world.
I Be Smart
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1. One doesn’t need to be a political pundit (I’m definitely not one by any long shot) to see why the LPC performed so dismally in all the four contested seats. The NDP on the other hand has demonstrated a strong will of leadership and a very good sense of direction. All these political dynamics have been recognized and endorsed by the voters. NDP came out first (in BC) and second (elsewhere).
2. While it remains too early to draw meaningful conclusions about the future of the different parties and leadership concerns, there is reason to believe that current political activities contributed significantly in producing these results.
3. From the CPC perspective, the PM remained quite visible on the limelight (both nationally and internationally). The stimulus package by the government was well-received. Voters remain upbeat about the prospects of the economy.
4. With regard to the NDP, I believe the leader’s latest appearances on television coupled with his strong alliance with the ruling party contributed enormously in projecting the image of the party. The leadership successfully avoided any dicey situations by clearly affiliating itself with government initiatives. This was primarily done by voting with the conservatives and hence avoiding the potential of any election. All these initiatives were in line with voter’s wishes.
5. For the LPC, I believe there is still a leadership vacuum. It may sound too early to conclude at this point. The message though is written everywhere. For example, the current leadership’s latest decision to withdraw support from the CPC did not go well with mainstream Canadians. And the party undoubtedly is paying a heavy price for that ill-conceived initiative.
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