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Political parties face test in federal byelections

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My NDP friends in New Westminster think that the Conservatives are doing a good job, so if they and others like them vote for Dilworth, she just might win. This should be interesting.

David Lorne

Political parties face test in federal byelections

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Political parties face test in federal byelections

Ian Munroe, CTV.ca News

Date: Sun. Nov. 8 2009 9:38 PM ET

A general election may seem far off on the horizon, but Canada's four major political parties face a test of their popularity on Monday. That's when voters head to the polls in byelections across three provinces.

"It's a bit of a test of the mood of the country, politically," CTV's Craig Oliver said by phone from Ottawa. "Even though byelections aren't a test of the government, they do give you a feel for where things might be at."

None of the ridings are particularly representative of the country's political landscape, University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman told CTV.ca, and voting rates are usually lower outside of general elections. But the results could still shed light on how Canadians feel about how their political parties are performing.

British Columbia

Front and centre is B.C.'s New Westminster-Coquitlam riding. Voters are set to choose between two leading candidates, the Conservatives' Diana Dilworth and the New Democrats' Fin Donnelly.

Donnelly has been campaigning with NDP Leader Jack Layton, who has visited the riding four times since the byelection was called in June. Donnelly opposes the province's proposed Harmonized Sales Tax, presenting it as a key issue in the election.

Meanwhile Dilworth, a local city councilor, has been keeping a low profile during her campaign, apparently opting to run on her party's reputation.

"She's not showing up at campaign events," Wiseman said. "The Conservative machine has told her to lie low: 'Your appearance will only hurt us, we can win without you campaigning.'"

Whether that strategy will pay off is hard to tell. The Conservatives won the riding in 2004 but the NDP has held it since then, and the race is expected to be close.

Quebec

Two byelections are taking place in Quebec on Monday. The Montreal riding of Hochelaga is considered a stronghold for the Bloc Quebecois. Daniel Paillé, a former Parti Québécois cabinet minister, will likely win the seat.

Farther down the St. Lawrence River, voters in the Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup riding are heading to the polls.

Bloc Quebecois candidate Nancy Gagnon is favoured to win. However, a former mayor named Bernard Généreux is hoping to steal a victory for the Tories.

"That would be a real coup," Wiseman said. "The Conservatives have got a decent chance because their candidate is known and the Bloc candidate isn't known."

But outrage over Ottawa's plans to scrap the federal long-gun registry may work in favour of the Bloc, as the program is popular in the province.

The Liberals aren't expected to produce a strong showing in either riding. Polls show they have been losing popularity in the province, partly because of recent squabbling within the party.

Nova Scotia

On the East Coast, voters in the riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley will likely send Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong to Parliament Hill.

While the NDP won its first majority government in Nova Scotia in the last provincial election, the Tories have enjoyed widespread support in the riding for a half-century.

"If that seat doesn't go Conservative then that is a real slap in the face for the government," Wiseman said.

The NDP may be able to take consolation in the fact that, according to recent polls, they don't appear to have been hurt by their decision to support Stephen Harper's Conservative government, Wiseman added.

Instead, he said the Liberals' popularity has waned after announcing in September that they would try to bring down the Conservative-led government. But whether such national sentiments will play out in a handful of the country's 308 federal ridings is hard to say.

Comments are now closed for this story

pat sk
said
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Time for Iggy to book his flight back to the good old USA!! Liberals are on the road to extinction!!!


Rick in NB. Ste Marie
said
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In the west it's a NDP vs Tory, as in NS In Quebec it's Bloc vs Tory. If anything it may be a measuring stick to guage new reformed conservative support, or lack thereof.

Gord. Robson, Nova Scotia
said
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If the Conservatives win in B.C. ,one in Quebecand Nova Scotia then look out Liberals !


bcdarr
said
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Having a candidate 'lie low' seems an odd way to run a campaign. But it does point out the oddity of Canadian politics. The majority of votes for John Smith, Liberal/Conservative/NDP etc. have nothing to do with John Smith and EVERTHING to do with Liberal/Conservative/NDP etc.Perhaps we should just run Party Robots in the various ridings. Oh wait, we already do. :-)


WatchinginPortMoody
said
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While Mr. Wiseman sits in a chair watching from Toronto, I have had the pleasure of watching the campaign from right here in Port Moody. Let me tell you Mr. Wiseman what I've seen on the ground.I've never gotten so much as a phone call from the NDP or the Liberals. I guess my vote isn't worth a free local call. I have been called by the PCs, they were very friendly.I have not seen either the NDP or the Liberals in my neighborhood door knocking. I haven't seen them in any neighborhood door knocking for that matter. Now true, I could have missed them. I did get some literature at one point at the very beginning of the campaign. I have seen the Tory team in my neighbourhood door knocking, I've seen the candidate herself talking to people at the doors. I've heard a lot about the supposed all candidates debates held in this riding. Did anyone bother to check to see who organized these? Nothing like walking into a loaded room of NDP or Liberal supporters. Rather counter productive I should think. If the only message you're going to hear is from one side, why bother inviting the others?At the end of the day, I've not seen or heard from the Liberal candidate, I've heard ABOUT the NDP candidate but he didn't think I was worth a phone call, and the Tory candidate, has called me, shown up at my door, and I've seen her talking with people who she would ultimately represent.Hmm, I think I know who I'm voting for tomorrow.


LM in AB
said
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Who knows, A Couple more byeletions and maybe a few Nervous Nelly floor crossers and we might have a Conservative Majority without a general election? Hmmm......


Wade Ens
said
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There is only one party that can deliver the goods.


Adele Hay
said
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I notice most Liberals are calling themselves independents these days. With the Liberals doing so badly the independents can go left to the NDP or the centre or middle with Harper. Harper had none of the seats to begin with so he can't lose.


david sawkiw[saskatchewan farmer]
said
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So,,, Jumpin Jack Flash is out helping out in the hinterland.Maybe someone should tell iggy to stray just a bit away from the ivory towers to help out some liberal candidates. Or maybe he is just going to make the move south to help his buddy Barrack implement the health care plan.

ron
said
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Here in B.C. the battle is increasingly between the New Democrats and the Tories. Anti-HST(Harper Sales Tax) sentiment and a well-known and respected candidate who is not afraid to come to all-candidate meetings will translate into a NDP victory.What is fascinating is the upsurge of support on Hochelaga and in Nova Scotia for the New Democrats. The Liberals could come third in all four ridings! Perhaps they should have had a real leadership convention rather than appointing Iffy.


Peter in MB
said
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Re: LM "Who knows, A Couple more by-elections and maybe a few Nervous Nelly floor crossers and we might have a Conservative Majority without a general election".That would be nice, 3 years of stable govenment.This happened back in 1926.The 8 liberals who voted to kill the long gun registry last week might as well cross the floor now because their political careers as liberals are over. Just like what happened to the 7 liberals back in 1996 that did not support the bill john Chretien did not renew their candidate papers instead he parachuted new liberal Candidates into their ridings.


Red X
said
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Hey! The Liberals will still have 77 seats after the by elections. It will be the seat that Casey won as an Independent that will go back to the Conservatives. As for Harpy, he will never get a Majority because he can't reach the 155 seat level in the 308 seat parliament with byelection wins...


David Lorne
said
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My NDP friends in New Westminster think that the Conservatives are doing a good job, so if they and others like them vote for Dilworth, she just might win. This should be interesting.

Phil in London
said
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The Liberals are the clear losers here, If they don't get a second place somewhere they are tagged as dropping further.The Bloc has lots to lose because they should win the two Quebec seats.It's hardly a lock but it's not a stretch that the Conservatives OR The NDP could squeak out three seats. It's more likely they get one each which would still be a pickup for a sitting government.An upset in Quebec (Hochelaga for the Dippers or the other riding for the Conservatives) woud be detrimental to the Bloc. I'm going to make a bold guess and say the Bloc loses on seat and the government gains two


Chris in Ontariariari-Oh!
said
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Good point Peter in M.B. ,The only big thing I think is that bye election's tend to have a low turn out and if the party faithful get out to vote then election's can be determined without pundit's and political guru's.As far as the tax harmonization is concerned that 's something that is strictly up to the province's to institute.I am in Ontario where it doesn't seem to matter what people think here as long as Mcguinty keep's apologizing for his never ending failure's Ontarian's seem willing to forgive oblivious of the cost.I own my own business and now I have to tell my customer's they will have to pay more for something that wasn't taxed before,I guess it suck's to be me.They just take and take and for whatever reason the media does'nt seem to bother to investigate these liberal faux paux.If this were Mike Harris they would have prepared a lynching party. What a joke we have for investigative journalism we have in this country.


David
said
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There must be some Liberals starting to second guest why there with that party. These by-elections could cause more of them to quit or cross the floor. Mr Iggy will soon wish he was back in the good old US of A.


Ron
said
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These are the death throes of the Lie-beral party and good riddance to a corrupt rotting corpse that tried to destroy Canada. At least Iggy still has "my country too" the USA to flee to or maybe "my adopted home" the UK...


Samual
said
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I'm 51 years old, have lived in BC all my life, I have never met anyone here that would vote conservative.


LM in AB
said
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RE: Red x, Last time I checked the Conservatives were only 12 seats away. And other than byelections, there are I'm sure some Liberals that don't want to go down with the Liberal ship, And that ship is listing as we speak. Tomorrow we'll see if it springs another leak.


Claude
said
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The Liberal Party will lose all 4 of these by-elections but they are far from being down and out for the next election. Ignatieff has not had a good showing and it will show at the ballot box. I believe the Bloq and NDP have the most to gain or lose.


Ronald
said
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It matters little should the Libs decide to cross the floor, Cons don't need a re-hashed bunch of loserswho will then become (problem children).The Conservatives are doing quite well on their own and are continuing to gain numbers in the polls.Mr. Ignatieff and his caucus should speak well of his enemies, after all, he made them!


Spitfire
said
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Iggy is NON ENTITY, and only in Canada can we have a provincial party masquerading as a federal one, all the wile trying to suck Canada for all she's worth. Conservatives are the only qualified party to govern in this country. Someone has to clean up Cretin's mess!


Gord in Sask
said
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I wish the media would quit treating these by-elections as a poll on how all of Canada feels about the present government. They are by-elections where voters in a few ridings will vote on the government from their perspective. The vast majority on Canadians will give our opinion during the next general election.


Adam
said
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As a gay man I feel the only party's that would shift more benefits to us for CPP survivor benefits is the Liberals and NDP. Conservatives are too focused on traditional families them seem to just care about straight people and jobs.


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