CTV News | WHO close to declaring H1N1 flu pandemic

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WHO close to declaring H1N1 flu pandemic

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CTV News: Jill Macyshon on the troubling cases
CTV Winnipeg: Jon Hendricks on the spread of H1N1 in Aboriginal communities
CTV Winnipeg: Shaneen Robinson on the H1N1 flu in Manitoba
CTV News Channel: Dr. Neil Rau on the spread and how the WHO are reacting

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tue. Jun. 9 2009 7:03 PM ET

The head of the World Health Organization warned Tuesday the worldwide H1N1 flu outbreak appears to have reached pandemic proportions.

In Geneva, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said "on the surface of it, I think we are in phase 6," or a pandemic. The WHO expressed particular concern about Canada.

While the WHO has yet to officially declare a global pandemic, many flu experts say this is already the case.

Chan said it was important to verify the reports that the virus is becoming established outside North America before raising the alert level and declaring a pandemic.

"The decision to make a phase 6 announcement is a heavy responsibility, a responsibility that I will take very seriously, and I need to be convinced that I have indisputable evidence," Chan said.

On Wednesday, the WHO will hold a special conference with international health officials after which a formal announcement may be made.

WHO officials say they're wary of panicking populations around the world.

"One of the critical issues is that we do not want people to panic if they hear that we are in a pandemic situation,'' Feiji Fukuda, WHO's acting assistant director-general, said in a media call Tuesday.

"We know the virus is spreading and we are now seeing activity picking up in a number of countries. We know that we are getting closer to probably a pandemic situation,'' Fukuda said.

Canada has the third-highest number of cases worldwide (2,225), behind the United States (13,217) and Mexico (5717).

There have been four H1N1 flu deaths in Canada, and 121 hospitalizations.

The WHO head expressed concern about the "disproportionate number'' of serious cases on a remote native reserve in northern Manitoba.

Hundreds of aboriginals in the community of St. Theresa Point (population 3,200) -- 500 kilometers northeast of Winnipeg -- have reported symptoms, more than a dozen have been treated in hospital, several are reported to be on ventilators.

"These are observations of concern to us,'' Fukuda said.

Speaking on CTV News Channel, infectious disease specialist Dr. Neil Rau called the Manitoba outbreak "puzzling."

"What I find unusual here with the Manitoba situation is that they're describing so many at once. Genetic susceptibility of people of First Nations background is being raised as an explanation," Rao explained in Toronto.

"But no other flu virus has disproportionately affected one ethnic group over another historically so this would be a really new turn if that's the case here."

Experts say -- globally -- the disease pattern is different from what officials see with a normal flu outbreak.

Victims include not the very young, the very old and the very sick. Perfectly healthy people in their prime are falling ill.

The new H1N1 flu, a mixture of swine, bird and human viruses, has now infected 25,288 people in 73 countries, with 139 deaths.

With files from The Associated Press

Please Add Comments( )

Kerrie
said
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Should we be afraid of this Pandemic or treat it like any other flu. As summer approaches I may reconsider my plans to vacation in populated areas am I overreacting?


Tono
said
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I'll be buying my NBC suit.


not fooled
said
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This is great for Merck ! scare tactic to sell Tamiflu,because,"Avian Flu" didnt work like they hoped,but this might !


shane MAC
said
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we've been at phase 6 as per the WHO's own guidelines for a couple weeks now. the expontenal growth factor now has increased to numbers to which health responses are now only beginning to feel the strain of dealing with localized outbreaks. things will deteroate quicker now and WHO knows it. The risk of a recombination into a more virulent virus has now increased signifcantly (if it has not already happened...st. theresa's first point nation)


Mike Stokes
said
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The WHO is going to confirm something we already know? Everybody PANIC! the mortality rate of H1N1 is less than that of seasonal flu no need for the alarm.



Matthew
said
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More people died of aids yesterday than of the flu. Last year, something like 30,000+ people died during the "nomral flu season (New York Times). I don't recall seeing a call for Pandemic in either of these two cases.

WHO credibility is being tested.


Vincent
said
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Pandemic is a measure of global spread, not severity of a disease, however that also does not mean there isn't a potential for it to mutate. Past pandemics have, so the WHO is being cautious in their approach, as they should be until more information is known.




Norm in NB
said
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How quickly we forget. How does this compare to the Flu pandemic of 1917? My grandfather survived it and he said that was a true pandemic.


Bob
said
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Remember that one of the major concerns with a pandemic driven by a virus such as this is not necessarily the total rate of mortality, but that it affects people in their prime (e.g. 20-50) much more adversely than common flu viruses.


daryn
said
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I agree about the WHO credibility. Anything to do with the United Nations is a joke. They can't even keep north Korea and Iran in line never mind stopping a pandemic of a little virus that only is expected to kill less people than the common cold every year.


Bill in BC
said
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Yet another thing blown out of proportion. This is a NON-ISSUE!


Pierre from Kelowna
said
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Back to basics.

Wash your hands frequently.
Wash your hands frequently.
Avoid unnecessary travel to affected areas.
Avoid crowded areas.
Keep a survival and evacuation kit at home and in the car with food, water, and other supplies.
Don't panic.

That's about all you can do without heading for the hills.


MAL
said
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Wasn't this a pandemic waaaaaay back when... WHO is incompetent and the leader continues to extract payback for China's complete bumbling of SARS. If it as nasty as they say, why are their not associated reports from CDC in Atlanta. Well technically a virus is not a disease, you would think they would offer their 2 cents if it was as huge as it is played up to be.


Chicken
said
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Maybe it is better to go out and catch it now, while there are hospital beds available if needed, than wait until fall when it all hits the fan.


Ron
said
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There are reports of 25 severely ill people in Manitoba on ventilators today and some of you still think this is being blown out of proportion? What would it take to get you excited? 1000 dead? 10000 dead? Get real - this is bad.


A. Henderson
said
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As an individual working in the emergency planning field, I understand that you are damned when you do and damned when you don't provide the public with information/ take prudent action in these situations. The WHO is simply taking due dilligence to avoid speculation if/ when the situation escalates.

While the situation may seem like a joke in developed parts of Canada, it is not in many parts of the world or on Canada's reserves. Making a joke of others discomfort is disrespectful to say the least.

I would suggest that those criticizing government action be thankful there are people out there planning and preparing for the good of citizens and not be so critical. These people train and plan for these exact situations all of their lives and I would suggest you sit back, not be critical, and take suggested advice.


Mr. Perspective
said
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1.2 million people died in car accidents world wide last year.




Confused
said
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How do they even know the correct numbers of people who have this flu. Three of my grandchildren have been sick with flu symptoms in this past week and have any of them been sent for testing..NO.


Roger T
said
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Better to announce it now than later when the death toll climbs. There have been a few reported deaths in our country which everytime the health officials keeps coming up with excuses to cover up to clam fears about the SWINE FLU spereading. The deaths reported as from swine flu but the excuse is becuase they are old and already had health condition issues. This isn't helping any citizen especially the elderly hearing that htey might die because of their age and helath factor.

The Gov't isn't moving fast enough to stop the spread while still allowing the air traffic flow freely.

My prediction that the numbers will climb over 2000 before end of summer.




CYL
said
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As it was not top stories for a while, I thought it's time to relax and move on. Quite the contrary it seems. Scary..... Should we be closing borders not to let it in or is it already here and health canada just waiting to drop the big announcement. Should health canada be emphasizing 'the signs', 'what to look for', 'prevention'.
I would like to know...


SK Doctor
said
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I love it - first the WHO are hammered by the media because they 'overreact' and now the wisdom of their approach emerges...flus are potentially lethal to individuals and societies - get used to it and be ready...


Simon in Toronto
said
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By all accounts, this outbreak can be classified an pandemic. The reason WHO did not yet declare it is pressure from business and governments. All they're interested in is to save the slumping tourism business. For now, corporate greed is winning again.


RVH
said
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Austrailia is an island. Ban travel to and from, problem solved


Reece
said
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What is Health Canada gonna do about the Olympics during the Pandamic Phase? Are they so concerned as to shut it down? Nope. Go figure out the logic in that. If they were truly concerned the health of Canadians would be parmount - so, drop it already.


Bill in BC
said
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How to deal with H1N1 aka swine flu:

1. wash your hands

2. cover your mouth & nose when coughing/sneezing

3. don't spit on your neighbours

4. stop panicking!


Concerned Canadian
said
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We had this same conversation a month ago when this began. Many posters made exactly the same points- fewer people killed than by regular flu, or AIDS, or car accidents...versus this thing is still spreading and mutation is possible,this is the way the killer flu began in 1918, this is a new strain etc.

So what will we be saying in another month's time? Two months? Four?

At what point will we either drop this as inconsequential, or realize that there is a potentially deadly disease spreading around the world?

Unless you can answer with certainty, don't criticize WHO for taking all precautions. What else could they do responsibly?


R.A
said
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I just heard on the news that there are a lot of new cases in Nunavut and Manitoba..I think we should be taking this more seriously..If we're getting the flu at this time of the year, what will happen in the winter.


Dave
said
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Best case scenario, nothing major comes of it but it scares more people into washing their hands in public restrooms.

Worst case scenario, virus continues to spread and/or mutate but at least we are watching closely and I feel like I'm continually being informed. What's going to happen? WHO knows!


AWL
said
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I had 'swine flu'. It lasted about 10 days, with 3 really nasty days in the middle. I caught if from my friend whose 16 month old baby also had it. We all recovered. Had there not been a media frenzy over the issue, the most that would have been said is that we had a nasty chest cold for a few days. But now people react as if I'd endured some terrible tragedy and narrowly escaped certain death .... lolol.


How Many Really
said
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There is a very good chance that Manitoba (and possibly other provinces) has far more cases than they are aware of. I have family in a northern Manitoba community where roughly half of the population is currently, or has recently recovered from, flu symptoms. The doctors are refusing to test for H1N1 or avian flu (even though a number of dead birds have been found recently).


Be Smart!
said
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Seriously people. Before you critisize the ones in the know, do a little research yourselves. The last pandemic presented mild in the spring, laid back during the summer then returned as a mutated killer in the fall. The biggest danger here is the loud mouths in our instant gratification society who mock this threat because it hasn't developed at a fast pace.


Sherry in Edmonton
said
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I completely disagree that the WHO is losing it's credibility. Have you done your own investigating as to the rules for the Alert Levels. It determines how the virus is SPREADING not KILLING! There is a HUGE difference. I would rather have doctors and disease control professionals deciding on what Alert Level any type of new disease or virus is going to get!!

I would like to reiterate again...

The WHO Pandemic Alert Levels are based on how quickly viruses are spreading and how many people are infected. NOT how many people it's killing!

Do a little reading on your own the WHO website explains it very clearly. Then come back and let us know whether they're still losing credibility.


Apples to Oranges Edmonton
said
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So lets rack up everything that people have died from last year,

Car Accidents

Influenza

AIDS

Heart Disease

Cancer of Any sort

Malaria

Drowning

Funny thing is, is we know how all of the above are going to progress. Our doctors and scientists have seen it under a microscope many many times before.

H1N1 A, is a new virus, one that hasn't been looked at for too long. One that until a month ago was not believed to be spread to humans. This is a NEW virus. They do not know how it will progress, or mutate.

I'm tired of the apples to oranges. This is a COMPLETELY different virus.


Luis
said
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I think this virus will end up outsmarting humanity if people keep ingoring and not taking it seriously enough. The numbers might not be higher than the common flu yet, but if people keep ignoring it's seriousness it will end up becoming a very bad nightmare for all of us.


Elizabeth
said
0 0

Seriously what a load of garbage. This "cause" for alarm is ridiculous. More people die from the regular flu... and we don't call that a pandemic. Let's put this into proportion!!!


John fron N.B.
said
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The WHO's concerns does cause one to ponder. Even if they raise the level to 6, complacency will set in when the summer months do not seem to justify this action. It is in the fall, traditional flu season, when the greatest likelihood of mutation arrives and the real danger is most likely to kick in.


LALI
said
0 0

Was going to spend summer 's vacation in Mexico this year. But forget about that. Going to Victoria, BC. Help domestic economy, that's more like it.


Reece
said
0 0

"Help domestic economy, that's more like it."

Ummmm...we have 2446 cases of H1N1. The only place without that bug is the Antarctic or North Pole. Why vacation in Canada when you can get away from it all (h1n1) in a frigid wonderland.

Your disdain for Mexico is apparent - with or without h1n1 or your ability to afford Mexico.



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