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Canadian firms pessimistic about the year ahead
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Mon. Jan. 12 2009 11:35 PM ET
Two new Bank of Canada surveys suggest Canada's business community believes 2009 will bring little cheer, with continued challenges getting consumers to buy their products and services in the face of a deepening recession.
For starters, businesses participating in the most recent quarterly Business Outlook Survey reported their gloomiest expectations for the economy since the survey began in 1997. Survey data was collected between Nov. 14 and Dec. 12 -- a time period which followed a decline of many major worldwide economies.
In Canada, 71,000 jobs were lost in November, followed by another 34,000 jobs in the final month of the year. Some economists have suggested that Canada could see up to 200,000 job losses from the economy in 2009 before an expected turnaround in 2010.
Overall, the 100 businesses participating in the survey predicted that their sales will decline in the next 12 months. And as a whole, they held negative balances of opinions for both investment and employment over the same period.
Nearly two-thirds of these businesses reported dealing with tighter credit conditions, which the survey said marked "a record-high level in the winter survey."
The businesses surveyed also said it will also not be an easy task to find a job in 2009, as they expect fewer jobs will become available -- though the outlook is better for people working in the services sector.
"The balance of opinion on employment has turned negative for the first time in the survey's history, indicating that firms expect the level of employment to contract over the next 12 months," the outlook survey reports.
"Hiring intentions are lower among firms in the good sector than those for operating in the services sector."
Bank of Montreal Deputy Chief Economist Douglas Porter said the confidence of Canadian businesses appeared to take a turn for the worse along with the economy in the final quarter of last year.
"The direction is certainly not a surprise, but the suddenness with which some of these indicators swung from positive to negative and the depth some declined further into the red is quite eye-opening," Porter said.
The Bank of Canada also released its Senior Loan Officer Survey Monday, conducted between Dec. 15 and Dec. 19, which reported that credit continued to tighten throughout the reporting period for both "pricing and non-pricing aspects of business-lending conditions."
"The pricing responses reflect the efforts of financial institutions to pass on to borrowers the increase in their own borrowing costs relative to risk-free rates," the Senior Loan Officer Survey reports.
"The non-pricing responses indicate a tightening in the terms and standards for loans and/or limits on the funds allocated to some sectors."
Extraordinary thinking required
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Monday that Canada is caught in the midst of "extraordinary times" with a worldwide recession.
"This is not a cutting exercise. We are in extraordinary times. It calls for some extraordinary thinking," Flaherty said during a visit to Victoria as part of a series of pre-budget consultations.
"The deficit will be substantial."
However, Flaherty didn't say how big the deficit would be when he tables the budget on Jan. 27. He told reporters he would receive new economic numbers later this week.
On Monday, Statistics Canada released two other reports that described declines in Canada's housing and tourism sectors in the final months of 2008.
In November, the new housing price index saw its smallest monthly increase -- 0.9 per cent -- since August 1999, StatsCan reported.
The statistical agency also reported that tourism spending dropped 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of last year -- ending a period of growth that began following the SARS scare of 2003.
With files from The Canadian Press
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I applaud the budget, even though Health Care and education may stay unscathed. Sadly this cannot last and I worry to later this year where cuts will become enviable. If anything, this provides the Wildrose Alliance plenty of ammo when an election is called.


Comments are now closed for this story
Lionel Dionne, Ottawa
said
Raymond In Regina
said
Don Thompson from Alberta
said
island girl
said
Peter the fake
said
Things will get better. We will be on solid footing in about 6-8 months I believe. The growth we had over the last few years was fueled by foolish Americans using their house as an ATM. I think the Cons. will get us out of this faster and it will be more sustainable. Obama's spending spree south of the border I think will prolong it and leave our children indebted for our sins of today. Gov't intervention is never sustainable in a free economic world like today.
But I do believe now is the best time for infrastructure projects since labour would be cheaper and more readily available. The problem is read tape before putting the shovel into the ground. All those people laid off in Oshawa have yet to be shown the door and then they get a 1yr severance. So don't worry about those folks.
Raurie, Ontario
said
Ross
said
Marc
said
Dayton
said
Ian in Ottawa
said
I agree with those who've posted that hard times will come to an end in a few months (before end of 2009). We always pull out of things.
Cutting taxes reduces the coffers, yes, but it's a sound strategy. Infrastructure spending is a sound strategy. Pouring billions in health care or the environment during a "financial crisis" is not wise. Read history books, please.
By the way: the war in Afghanistan will have cost $18 billion by the end of our mandate in 2011-- over ten years! Peanuts. How much was the gun registry?
Michelle
said
What sort of mess did we create for ourselves? And how do we get out of it?
Roger T
said
First the retailers blamed it on: the high looney, than oil prices and taxes. BUT than the value of the looney, oil and GST hve all dropped and NO changes still but more excuses to rise prices.
No price drops, no shopping.
Til than RECESSION it is!
James
said
We better start thinking about what the entire financial community can do to restart the economy. I know, FORGIVE ALL DEBT!!
Must we cling to the old ways while thousand of people are laid off, hundreds of businesses, large and small, go under and people freak out about how they will survive.
I say NO! Let's all get together, pick a date to declare everybody debt free. Let's make credit more difficult to get. It can be done and it would provide the necessary kick in the pants to right what is wrong with our society. Forgiving all debt would put so many people back to work and free up the necessary cash to make the enviromental changes necessary to save the world at the same time.
We have it in us to forgive. Let's get it done!!
Colleen in Salmon Arm
said
To Ross you have to be kidding or out of your mind
said
Give $2,000 to everyone? wonderful idea, it`s people like you that put us in a recession.
Go to work to get your $2K, this is not a lottery and we don't want to pay for this with our taxes.
Some people have a lot of nerve when it come to someone else's money, our taxes!
The government should stop spending on what is not essential and use that money to stimulate employment, not wasting money on another tax break!
Angela -Guelph
said
I have read several of your posts in different economic articles whereby you seem to seriously feel all debt should be forgiven.
I guess I do not understand your logic...maybe you are just kidding, but you seem pretty intent on this idea.
If all debt is forgiven, what happens to the person to whom the debt was owed? they just lose right? Not all debt is held by huge faceless corporations, and real people wold be ruined by this. PLUS, why should I as a responsible person without a great deal of debt, other than a mortgage be penalized because someone who got themself so far into debt they could not manage, is bailed out??
If you can support your position in a way that make some economic sense that is one thing, but it is kind of silly to just say 'forgive all debt" like it is an easy answer. There are no easy answers to this mess, and we all have to be individually responsible for our part.
Just my 2 cents...
Suggestion for Minister JIm Flaherty
said
It is generally well known that Canada is a stock fraudsters paradise and the RCMP do absolutely NOTHING because they aren't properly organized to protect Canadians from these financial criminals.
The first step is cleaning the RCMP house then our markets.
Andrea
said
mickie
said
What happens to those people that the borrowers are indebted to? Somebody always pays, so if you borrowed and got yourself into debt, then YOU pay and next time maybe you will defer gratification until you can afford it.
Marc Toronto
said
Spenc
said
Talk about useless reporting!
Pip
said
We are in this position because governments let themselves be talked into endorsing the idea that that everyone should have access to large amounts of credit, regardless of whether that debt could be repaid or not. Also because they were persuaded that making an income by manipulating theoretical expressions of wealth instead of actually creating wealth was a good idea. And of course, don't forget good, old-fashioned greed on the part of manufacturers and consumers, who applauded the export of manufacturing jobs to other nations for the sake of greater corporate profits and growth of profits, and lower retail prices.
So, posters, instead of making ridiculous suggestions, say something constructive. Instead of laying blame, next time you shop for manufactured goods, how about buying something with a "Made in Canada" sticker? But good luck finding it; your shopping habits have made such things hard to find.
jk out west
said
Andrew from Manitoba
said
Rosie
said
Derrick
said
KJ in Kingston Ontario
said
James - eh!
said
He's right, but this comes from a man only a few short months ago said our economy was a strong as the Canadian Shield. Does he have the extraordinary thinking in him?
Calling a deficit balanced, as he did in Ontario, isn't the kind of extraordinary thinking we need.
I don't think he has it in him, although I hope he proves me wrong for Canada's sake.
bob
said
ScottHfx
said
Great Idea! This was actually one of Mike Huckabees ideas in the US race for head of the Republican party. Unfortunately, the Liberals/Democrats would never let that happen. They are the ones who began income tax long ago, like FDR and alike. They believe in socialism, where those that work hard, support the chosen few. They don't believe in free enterprise. Now with the election of Democrarts in the US, we will continue to move closer to a socialist state. Liberals are in their glee!
This doom and gloom news should be suppressed.
said
People must be deceived. It's the only way society can function.
Willy, Ontario
said
Seems like we just accept throwing 30 some billion away each year on interest because our debt to GDP ratio someone considers to be OK.
Wow, what we could do if we were debt free like some other countries.
It's too bad because the Conservatives were on the right track by paying down the debt.
DJM Ontario.
said
Doug BC
said
Reducing taxes IS an economic stimulus,NOT a squandering of money that rightfully belonged to the paxpayers anyway.And,to thosew left wingers who criticize what may have been poor timing for the tax cuts the Conservatives made,it has to be pointed out,that they are the only party to remain committed to reducing our national debt.If they had let the annual surpluse grow,and lost in an election,the Liberals would have just spent all that,and then some.
It's odd to me,that the Liberal left claims to be the defender of sovereignty in Canada,and is a bastion for anti Americanism,but still hasn't figured out that big debt,and an over reliance on American markets ar a huge threat to the future sovereignty of this country.
Just like people who find themselves in debt now.THey are the ones who will hurt the most in an economic downturn.Those who consumed less,and saved more,will fair the best.
The truth is,a lot of people in trouble,got their by making poor choices.Just as our government did for decades,when they decided that big deficits could be the rule,when they should have been used ONLY as an exception,during global economic downturns.
We are facing a challenge now.It's not a time to look for scapegoats,it is a time to re-assess how we finance our lifestyles.
Encouraging consumer spending is a waste.
said
Spending on infrastructure will keep the money in Canada and leave Canada better able to function in the future with improved transportation, communication, medical and educational facilities.
Andrea
said
You just have to be careful on how to spend your money.
Chop up one of the two of the credit cards in your wallett. Living off of Credit is expensive.
Canadians biggest problem is living off of credit.
Luke the nigger
said
Lost Cause
said
I want an option when I file my income taxes, a way of not having my tax dollars go towards that stupid mess in Afghanistan that we cannot afford and should not be participating in anyway.
Anyone else? I'd much rather see those tax dollars spent taking care of people suffering in poverty here, going to Canadians who need really need help!
Dunny
said
Raymond in Regina
said
terri
said
Who do you think you are kidding? You voted for the other guy already and will do it again no matter what the budget is. I can read between the lines of an ABC MAN.
Jim in Ottawa
said
It's important to focus on becoming a business owner, not a consumer of other business owner's products. And ANYONE can do so.