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Canadian firms pessimistic about the year ahead

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CTV Newsnet: BNN's Amanda Lang on the surveys

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Mon. Jan. 12 2009 11:35 PM ET

Two new Bank of Canada surveys suggest Canada's business community believes 2009 will bring little cheer, with continued challenges getting consumers to buy their products and services in the face of a deepening recession.

For starters, businesses participating in the most recent quarterly Business Outlook Survey reported their gloomiest expectations for the economy since the survey began in 1997. Survey data was collected between Nov. 14 and Dec. 12 -- a time period which followed a decline of many major worldwide economies.

In Canada, 71,000 jobs were lost in November, followed by another 34,000 jobs in the final month of the year. Some economists have suggested that Canada could see up to 200,000 job losses from the economy in 2009 before an expected turnaround in 2010.

Overall, the 100 businesses participating in the survey predicted that their sales will decline in the next 12 months. And as a whole, they held negative balances of opinions for both investment and employment over the same period.

Nearly two-thirds of these businesses reported dealing with tighter credit conditions, which the survey said marked "a record-high level in the winter survey."

The businesses surveyed also said it will also not be an easy task to find a job in 2009, as they expect fewer jobs will become available -- though the outlook is better for people working in the services sector.

"The balance of opinion on employment has turned negative for the first time in the survey's history, indicating that firms expect the level of employment to contract over the next 12 months," the outlook survey reports.

"Hiring intentions are lower among firms in the good sector than those for operating in the services sector."

Bank of Montreal Deputy Chief Economist Douglas Porter said the confidence of Canadian businesses appeared to take a turn for the worse along with the economy in the final quarter of last year.

"The direction is certainly not a surprise, but the suddenness with which some of these indicators swung from positive to negative and the depth some declined further into the red is quite eye-opening," Porter said.

The Bank of Canada also released its Senior Loan Officer Survey Monday, conducted between Dec. 15 and Dec. 19, which reported that credit continued to tighten throughout the reporting period for both "pricing and non-pricing aspects of business-lending conditions."

"The pricing responses reflect the efforts of financial institutions to pass on to borrowers the increase in their own borrowing costs relative to risk-free rates," the Senior Loan Officer Survey reports.

"The non-pricing responses indicate a tightening in the terms and standards for loans and/or limits on the funds allocated to some sectors."

Extraordinary thinking required

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Monday that Canada is caught in the midst of "extraordinary times" with a worldwide recession.

"This is not a cutting exercise. We are in extraordinary times. It calls for some extraordinary thinking," Flaherty said during a visit to Victoria as part of a series of pre-budget consultations.

"The deficit will be substantial."

However, Flaherty didn't say how big the deficit would be when he tables the budget on Jan. 27. He told reporters he would receive new economic numbers later this week.

On Monday, Statistics Canada released two other reports that described declines in Canada's housing and tourism sectors in the final months of 2008.

In November, the new housing price index saw its smallest monthly increase -- 0.9 per cent -- since August 1999, StatsCan reported.

The statistical agency also reported that tourism spending dropped 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of last year -- ending a period of growth that began following the SARS scare of 2003.

With files from The Canadian Press

Comments are now closed for this story

Lionel Dionne, Ottawa
said

I think the economy should stop being based on consumption. I would gladly take a 20% cut in pay if I could work 4 days a week. Then, I would consume 20% less which would be good for the environment. It would also create 1 new job for every 5 persons that would do the same. Life is short.


Raymond In Regina
said

This is not surprising. Infrastructure spending was needed a long time ago before the election to keep things going. We now have a reduced GST for less revenue for gov't spending, we had no buffer, we are now going to spend the most biggest deficit ever to try to keep the economy going which just pretty much wiped out the face of our debt reduction, and yet people call the Conservatives a prudent management of our fiscal policies. NOT! Can you hear cuts to health care because of fiscal spending, we are going to see freeze in gov't hirings so services through them are going to be slower as if it isn't slow enough and we are not going to be as competitive in the global world because our current government decided to be like the Republicans and spend elsewhere like the war in Afghanistan so our infrastructure here is crumbling. Yeah... it's reality now, Big 3 american car companies will probably become the fight of who of the Big 3 will fall first and then 2 left. I'm not voting Conservative next round either.


Don Thompson from Alberta
said

I like Lionel's idea for the 4 day work week. Maybe the gov't could mandate that this could be offered to employees voluntarily with the understanding they would not be pushed out of their jobs if they took advantage of it?


island girl
said

Ever heard of a business cycle? As long as there is enough money to pour billions in to bailouts, things can't be that bad. In fact, the only crying I've heard is from business. Individuals have held up quite well, even those who have lost their jobs.


Peter the fake
said

Raymond, the libbies waisted billions ala gun registry, HRDC, EI tax (yeah it's a tax now), etc. They could've paid down way more debt but decided to spend on social programs with no result. We would have less interest to pay down that debt today if the libbies hadn't waisted their chance during some of the best times ever for Canada. The Cons are being told to spend by Iggy and Layton who threaten to bring down the gov't. Iggy himself said he wanted tax cuts now. This is different than what the libbies said just over 1 month ago.

Things will get better. We will be on solid footing in about 6-8 months I believe. The growth we had over the last few years was fueled by foolish Americans using their house as an ATM. I think the Cons. will get us out of this faster and it will be more sustainable. Obama's spending spree south of the border I think will prolong it and leave our children indebted for our sins of today. Gov't intervention is never sustainable in a free economic world like today.

But I do believe now is the best time for infrastructure projects since labour would be cheaper and more readily available. The problem is read tape before putting the shovel into the ground. All those people laid off in Oshawa have yet to be shown the door and then they get a 1yr severance. So don't worry about those folks.


Raurie, Ontario
said

I am sorry Island girl, but I do not agree. There are three members in my immediate family and two of them have lost their jobs because of this mess. That leaves me supporting all of us and our bills. And don't give me the "you didn't live in your means" talk, because we did. I feel like I am drowning. I tried to get a consolidation loan, but nope, not possible. You see, a 650 FICO used to be great to banks, but now, they require 700. I see a lot of bankruptcies in our future.


Ross
said

Here is an idea not a complaint. The government should give every tax payer $2000 on the condition that at the next income tax year, they provie a reciept for the prodcut they purchased, this would heat up the demand for goods


Marc
said

When consumers are broke, or over extended, is it any wonder to think they may not be spending as much as previous years? We have had record years in sales the last few, and any companies thinking this would continue or was sustainable, needs to get their business plan redone. I am one of the 15% that actually saves money, as I do this incase of temporary job loss, recessions etc. Most people during good times borrow more money to pay for the things they must have, then when the bad times come, they are forced to sell whatever assets they have accumulated, for a loss. Not a wise decision in my opinion. The BoC can lend money for nothing, but I will still not borrow for what I may not pay back tomorrow. Simple logic, and I can sleep at night not wondering how or if my bills will be paid. Hopefully we can learn, that we cannot have a economy based on debt.


Dayton
said

How come we blame the govt. for our misfortunes when we really should blame ourselves? We are the people who racked up our cards,took out the lines of credit and worked in industry's we knew were vulnerable. Regardless of who was in power it was still our own personal choice's that are now unwinding. Heck we even encouraged our govt's to spend like we did on bogas programs. For what? To create a few jobs!! Time to stop bitchen and get back to the basics and move on.


Ian in Ottawa
said

We are in an "economic crisis" because "economists" are predicting doom and gloom. If the weatherman predicts rain, don't be surprised to see people walking around with an umbrella in hand, even though the sun's shining. When this whole mess started, we could have used some good statistics to keep everyone calm. Everyone got worried and stopped spending, banks stopped lending, and we are now seeing a downward spiral caused by nervous nellies.

I agree with those who've posted that hard times will come to an end in a few months (before end of 2009). We always pull out of things.

Cutting taxes reduces the coffers, yes, but it's a sound strategy. Infrastructure spending is a sound strategy. Pouring billions in health care or the environment during a "financial crisis" is not wise. Read history books, please.

By the way: the war in Afghanistan will have cost $18 billion by the end of our mandate in 2011-- over ten years! Peanuts. How much was the gun registry?


Michelle
said

Boy oh boy. There is plenty of food and shelter to go around and yet people can only provide those things for themselves if they can earn money selling trinkets to other people.
What sort of mess did we create for ourselves? And how do we get out of it?


Roger T
said

Who wouldn't be with job losses and unemployment on the rise and consumers are not spending any money. Interst rates for big ticket items have sky rocketed and retailers are over pricing eveything that includes cars.

First the retailers blamed it on: the high looney, than oil prices and taxes. BUT than the value of the looney, oil and GST hve all dropped and NO changes still but more excuses to rise prices.

No price drops, no shopping.

Til than RECESSION it is!


James
said

Okay, do people have their heads out of the sand yet? What more proof do people need that we are in deep financial trouble and it is going to get much worse before it gets better.
We better start thinking about what the entire financial community can do to restart the economy. I know, FORGIVE ALL DEBT!!

Must we cling to the old ways while thousand of people are laid off, hundreds of businesses, large and small, go under and people freak out about how they will survive.

I say NO! Let's all get together, pick a date to declare everybody debt free. Let's make credit more difficult to get. It can be done and it would provide the necessary kick in the pants to right what is wrong with our society. Forgiving all debt would put so many people back to work and free up the necessary cash to make the enviromental changes necessary to save the world at the same time.

We have it in us to forgive. Let's get it done!!


Colleen in Salmon Arm
said

A fellow I work with had an interesting idea, and I think it would help matters a lot. Do away with income tax and only have sales tax (GST, provincial sales tax, whatever). Then everyone would pay the same RATE of tax - rich and poor. No more income tax loop holes. So if I don't make much money, I only have to pay tax on what I buy - not on what I earn, and the rules are the same for the rich.


To Ross you have to be kidding or out of your mind
said

Ross,

Give $2,000 to everyone? wonderful idea, it`s people like you that put us in a recession.

Go to work to get your $2K, this is not a lottery and we don't want to pay for this with our taxes.

Some people have a lot of nerve when it come to someone else's money, our taxes!

The government should stop spending on what is not essential and use that money to stimulate employment, not wasting money on another tax break!

Angela -Guelph
said

To James:

I have read several of your posts in different economic articles whereby you seem to seriously feel all debt should be forgiven.

I guess I do not understand your logic...maybe you are just kidding, but you seem pretty intent on this idea.

If all debt is forgiven, what happens to the person to whom the debt was owed? they just lose right? Not all debt is held by huge faceless corporations, and real people wold be ruined by this. PLUS, why should I as a responsible person without a great deal of debt, other than a mortgage be penalized because someone who got themself so far into debt they could not manage, is bailed out??

If you can support your position in a way that make some economic sense that is one thing, but it is kind of silly to just say 'forgive all debt" like it is an easy answer. There are no easy answers to this mess, and we all have to be individually responsible for our part.

Just my 2 cents...


Suggestion for Minister JIm Flaherty
said

If the Minister wants to do something meaningful he would take measures to shape up the RCMP's financial wing and go after the well known criminal activity that goes on in our Canadian markets.

It is generally well known that Canada is a stock fraudsters paradise and the RCMP do absolutely NOTHING because they aren't properly organized to protect Canadians from these financial criminals.

The first step is cleaning the RCMP house then our markets.


Andrea
said

Lionel Dionne, Ottawa has hit the nail on the head. Let's all work a little less, consume less, be kinder to the environment and create jobs in the meantime. Life is absolutly too short!


mickie
said

James, James, James! How much debt do you have? You know, those of us who used our heads over the years don't have debt to forgive, and I certainly am not that forgiving that I want to bail YOU or anyone else out.

What happens to those people that the borrowers are indebted to? Somebody always pays, so if you borrowed and got yourself into debt, then YOU pay and next time maybe you will defer gratification until you can afford it.


Marc Toronto
said

Hey James i have no debt. So why would I want to forgive all of you who have lived beyond your means? Get real. The people with the huge debt caused the problem. Why must you want to reward those who do stupid things and punish those who do the right thing. Please Wake up.


Spenc
said

Who makes up these headlines. Talk about stating the obvious. Did you expect that after every major leader in the western world, along with every press outlet, has been telling us to "brace for tough times" that businesses would have a "Really Rosy Outlook" for this year.

Talk about useless reporting!


Pip
said

"Give everyone $2000"; "Forgive all debt". Sorry, that's all pie-in-the-sky.

We are in this position because governments let themselves be talked into endorsing the idea that that everyone should have access to large amounts of credit, regardless of whether that debt could be repaid or not. Also because they were persuaded that making an income by manipulating theoretical expressions of wealth instead of actually creating wealth was a good idea. And of course, don't forget good, old-fashioned greed on the part of manufacturers and consumers, who applauded the export of manufacturing jobs to other nations for the sake of greater corporate profits and growth of profits, and lower retail prices.

So, posters, instead of making ridiculous suggestions, say something constructive. Instead of laying blame, next time you shop for manufactured goods, how about buying something with a "Made in Canada" sticker? But good luck finding it; your shopping habits have made such things hard to find.





jk out west
said

James please give your "forgive all debt" a rest. Lie in the bed you made my friend and PAY UP! Maybe sell some of your items to PAY down your debt. There are people waiting in the weeds with $$ to buy your stuff cheap. Don't forget there is power in positive liquidity.



Andrew from Manitoba
said

Governments cannot solve our economic problems. They cannot create jobs or wealth, they can only redistribute. They take from the competent and efficient then give to those who aren't. Yes, recessions suck. They are painful. But they are needed to get rid of all the excesses and inefficiencies in our economic system. Now our government is trying to solve the problem of world overspending with more overspending. It will make the problem much worse and generations to come will be required to foot the bill.


Rosie
said

There is a reason for all the doom and gloom for the Candadian economy. Not only do we overspend on a personal basis, we pay an ever inreasing amount of tax dollars on government services on all levels of government. Our own government will become too expensive to afford very shortly unless all contracts are rewritten with wage cuts for federal and provincial empoyees. Fortunately for gov't workers there isn't any leader now or on the horizon with the guts to make tough decisions. Unfortunate for the rest of Canadians as we will end up paying more for less. That is the reality we''l have to face.


Derrick
said

Take a look at what GM is charging for car loans now, 11.25 % over 5 years. Sign of the times to come.


KJ in Kingston Ontario
said

I am thinking there may be a few areas with growth -- those that have taken the biggest fall from 2008 -- like financials and some real estate sectors -- but for the sellers of consumer goods and entertainment, it will be pretty bad in 2009.


James - eh!
said

So Jim Flaherty says extraordinary thinking required.
He's right, but this comes from a man only a few short months ago said our economy was a strong as the Canadian Shield. Does he have the extraordinary thinking in him?

Calling a deficit balanced, as he did in Ontario, isn't the kind of extraordinary thinking we need.

I don't think he has it in him, although I hope he proves me wrong for Canada's sake.


bob
said

We do have crisis of credit which has still not been corrected. Banks have not responded to lower rates from the BoC or the government taking up their riskier debt. Rates remain relatively high and conditions tight. The money supply needs to be loosened by loosening credit, not by huge government spending. One of the reasons we are not able to respond to this crisis as well as we should be able to do is the cost of servicing a huge national debt created by past spending sprees from the Trudeau and Mulroney governments. Most people know from personal experience that taking on debt is a long term burden, not a solution. It's no different for a country.


ScottHfx
said

To Colleen in Salmon Arm
Great Idea! This was actually one of Mike Huckabees ideas in the US race for head of the Republican party. Unfortunately, the Liberals/Democrats would never let that happen. They are the ones who began income tax long ago, like FDR and alike. They believe in socialism, where those that work hard, support the chosen few. They don't believe in free enterprise. Now with the election of Democrarts in the US, we will continue to move closer to a socialist state. Liberals are in their glee!

This doom and gloom news should be suppressed.
said

Companies will not invest cautiously if they know that other business owners and managers are pessimistic about the future.

People must be deceived. It's the only way society can function.




Willy, Ontario
said

Going into debt another 30 billion sure sounds scary but on the other hand we are already spending that much each year on interest on the current 467 billion dollar debt.

Seems like we just accept throwing 30 some billion away each year on interest because our debt to GDP ratio someone considers to be OK.

Wow, what we could do if we were debt free like some other countries.

It's too bad because the Conservatives were on the right track by paying down the debt.


DJM Ontario.
said

"Extraordinary times" no kidding, all I have to say is that if the "current" government doesn't provide something VERY EXTRAORDINARY in the upcoming budget I will be voting for the other guys next time. Which hopefully will be very soon.(!)


Doug BC
said

This is a business cycle.It may be more severe than some,but it will pass.
Reducing taxes IS an economic stimulus,NOT a squandering of money that rightfully belonged to the paxpayers anyway.And,to thosew left wingers who criticize what may have been poor timing for the tax cuts the Conservatives made,it has to be pointed out,that they are the only party to remain committed to reducing our national debt.If they had let the annual surpluse grow,and lost in an election,the Liberals would have just spent all that,and then some.
It's odd to me,that the Liberal left claims to be the defender of sovereignty in Canada,and is a bastion for anti Americanism,but still hasn't figured out that big debt,and an over reliance on American markets ar a huge threat to the future sovereignty of this country.
Just like people who find themselves in debt now.THey are the ones who will hurt the most in an economic downturn.Those who consumed less,and saved more,will fair the best.
The truth is,a lot of people in trouble,got their by making poor choices.Just as our government did for decades,when they decided that big deficits could be the rule,when they should have been used ONLY as an exception,during global economic downturns.
We are facing a challenge now.It's not a time to look for scapegoats,it is a time to re-assess how we finance our lifestyles.


Encouraging consumer spending is a waste.
said

It will send more money out of the country because so much of consumption is of foreign-made products.

Spending on infrastructure will keep the money in Canada and leave Canada better able to function in the future with improved transportation, communication, medical and educational facilities.





Andrea
said

It all depends on the industry, , and if the company has a product or service that is in demand, or wanted by the consumer.


You just have to be careful on how to spend your money.
Chop up one of the two of the credit cards in your wallett. Living off of Credit is expensive.

Canadians biggest problem is living off of credit.






Luke the nigger
said

i think that i would hate to have 20 percent deducted of my paycheck. I only get 2.30 and hour so if 20 percent is deducted then i would have much left


Lost Cause
said

If we are in financial dire straits and things are looking like they're going to be getting worse before they get better, why are we paying to be at war? There's no threat to us, definitely not one that requires deployment of the military abroad. Why are we paying to build a dam in Afghanistan when we just lost thousands upon thousands of jobs in Canada in the last months of 2008??

I want an option when I file my income taxes, a way of not having my tax dollars go towards that stupid mess in Afghanistan that we cannot afford and should not be participating in anyway.

Anyone else? I'd much rather see those tax dollars spent taking care of people suffering in poverty here, going to Canadians who need really need help!


Dunny
said

There is very little that the Canadian governments or individuals can do to alter what is a global crisis. All the billions that will be spent will only be a bandaid that at best, will mildly lessen the harm this deep recession will have and will have no effect whatsoever on the length. The additional national debt caused by pissing our money away to appease the lefties will, in the long run, cause more harm than good.


Raymond in Regina
said

Peter the fake: There are lots the liberals did wrong, but in comparison I believe the conservatives are even more wrong now. We all complained about millions that the liberals misspent, but look at what the Conservatives have done or not have done. PM Harper suing elections canada because EC called them on allegedly overspending on advertising, which to this date is not settled, and EC's bill for lawyers is more than 500 thousand and the Conservatives refuse to release their info, alright probably way over a million there. We still have no leader in the Listeriosis case in which Mr. Ritz made those awful comments, while this economic crisis started and election campaigned happened, the Conservatives could not make up their own speeches let alone did they not even have a plan, did you notice that when they released their platform they used pictures from when they were in the election campaign mode? Probably not, you'd follow only what you want to believe and not look past your own nose just like the conservative party itself and that's just the way I feel. I feel they really don't care about us and only have one agenda, tell us what most of us want to hear and then screw us over later if they get a majority.

terri
said

come on DJM,
Who do you think you are kidding? You voted for the other guy already and will do it again no matter what the budget is. I can read between the lines of an ABC MAN.


Jim in Ottawa
said

There are plenty of opportunities to make substantial financial gains during economic downturns.

It's important to focus on becoming a business owner, not a consumer of other business owner's products. And ANYONE can do so.


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