|
|
|
|
 View larger image
Paul Celucci, former U.S. ambassador to Canada, speaks to CTV's Canada AM from Boston, Mass., Monday, Nov. 3, 2008.
|
|
|
|
|
NAFTA in jeopardy if Obama wins, Cellucci says
Updated Mon. Nov. 3 2008 5:12 PM ET
CTV.ca News Staff
A former U.S. ambassador to Canada issued a stern warning Monday that the possibility of Barack Obama in the White House presents a "danger" to Canada by threatening the fundamentals of Canada-U.S. trade relations.
Most polls show Obama leading heading into Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.
Former Massachusetts governor Paul Cellucci, who was the ambassador under Republican U.S. President George Bush for four years, told CTV's Canada AM that free trade is under threat with a Democratic win.
"There's a danger for Canada in that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during the primary campaign were just about in a race to see who could take us out of NAFTA the quickest," Cellucci said.
"They made some pretty strong statements about the North America Free Trade Agreement, and if Barack Obama is elected with a strong Democratic majority in the House and the Senate, there's going to be a lot of pressure on him to do what he said he would do ... I don't think that would be good for the United States, I don't think that would be good for Canada."
Republican candidate John McCain, however, believes in the cross-border trade agreement and "how important this trade back-and-forth is to both of our countries and to the millions of people whose jobs are dependent on it," Cellucci said.
Spirit of co-operation
However, the former ambassador put partisanship aside to say that no matter who is elected to the White House, he believes there will be a spirit of co-operation and communication between the two nations that are each other's largest trading partners.
"Whoever is the leader of Canada, whoever is the leader of the United States, it's in each of our national interests to work together," Cellucci said.
"We're interconnected, we're dependent on each other, we have a lot of common interests and common values and I think they will work together no matter who it is."
Cellucci dismissed reports that the election is firmly in Democratic hands and Obama will walk away with the victory on Tuesday. He said McCain is still within five percentage points in most national polls, which is a surprising, given the unpopularity of the Iraq war, the current economic downturn and Obama's huge campaign budget.
McCain victory unlikely
Graham Dodds, a professor at Concordia University who specializes in U.S. domestic politics, agreed with Cellucci that regardless of who wins the election, the relationship between the two countries will in all likelihood remain strong.
But he conceded that in some ways, Canada would likely be better off with a McCain victory.
"An Obama presidency might mean a little more tension in a couple of areas," Dodds told CTV Newsnet.
He said Obama's comments about renegotiating NAFTA were most likely nothing more than campaign rhetoric, and he doubts such a change will actually happen.
However, he said Obama's stance on international trade is clearly more protectionist than McCain's, which could negatively impact trade relations.
Dodds also said Congress is likely to have a much stronger Democratic presence after the election if voting goes the way polls have suggested -- another factor that could affect Canada, he said.
"Democrats tend to favour protectionism as opposed to free trade and also burdensome environmental restrictions which both have heavy implications for the relationship with Canada in the future," Dodds said.
Fixing economy will be top priority
U.S. political commentator Mark Plotkin said the overriding issue in this election is the economy -- and Americans have traditionally sided with the Democrats in times of financial uncertainty, he said.
If, as Plotkin and Dodds predict, Obama wins the Tuesday election, his first order of business won't be to dismantle an important cross-border trade mechanism, but to try to fix the fractured U.S. economy, he suggested.
"People are worried about whether they can stay in their homes, whether they can afford a car loan, whether they can they meet their weekly and monthly bills. So that has overwhelmed everything else," Plotkin said.
Comments are now closed for this story
So what’s the big deal?
The USA has strong armed us in the softwood lumber dispute, shut down our beef industry with their Mad Cow sanctions, created all kinds of cross border access problems with their “security” restrictions and ignoring most of their promises through the NAFTA agreement.
They continue to subsidize their export products at will.
I do not understand why we are not looking at Chinese, Asian and European markets.
|
Yes, while Obama seems like the right and progressive pick for many, he'll not do us any favours. Not only for the Canada-US relations, but also to many moral issues. It'll be a sad day for America. Democrats in the White house, the Senate and the House of Reps. That's like having Jack Layton as our PM...
|
Sounds like Cellucci is towing the Republican line and not much more. I have to assume that Obama is intelligent enough to know that free trade has created net jobs for both countries. Unlike trade with China, Nafta was negotiated and does not give a huge unfair trade advantage to either side. China still trades as they wish even despite having pegged their currency and ignored the environment.. that's the kind of unfair trade that the Republicans allowed to fester for years and Obama needs to attack. Canada should be the least of his concerns. The one big problem Canada has is a govt that is too spineless to stand up to the US if push ever came to shove.
|
Much ado about nothing. For years Canadians have complained that NAFTA favored the US, ie: softwood lumber and we've been in court with them for years over it. Seriously, Mexico, big US corporations and share holders were the only real winners in NAFTA as all the manufacturing jobs went down there which allowed corporations higher salaries and bonuses and the share holders got a higher share value. NAFTA was never to our benefit other than we can now buy cheap, disposable, low quality garbage made by child labourers in a wider assortment of styles and colors. I would rather buy a Canadian made quality item, you may pay more but at least it lasts 10 times longer. If you keep having to replace cheap low quality items - in the end you haven't saved any money at all. I say renegotiate NAFTA so that our workers have decent paying jobs and so our natural resources are sold at a decent price and not given away at bargain basement prices.
|
FEAR MONGERING...PERIOD!!!
|
Someone who is biased for Bush.
Should we wait and see what will happen with NAFTA if Obama gets in?
If NAFTA is in jeopardy, I know Ontario wouldn't mind.
|
Mr. Dodds - as someone who is going to be alive for decades after you, i am hoping that americans vote for change. your generation has left us nothing, if anything i'm sure it's very small, to be proud of. i'm embarrassed by you and so are the rest of this nations children. we're ready to tough it out, cause it will be tough! but hopefully we can look back on OUR generation and be proud. we tried things your way...now look at where we're at. it's time for a change. the system is broken - and it's time to fix it.
|
A few complications with NAFTA are nothing compared to the US led world-wide disaster that will continue if McCain gets in.
|
Forgive me for not knowing exactly what NAFTA has done for Canada. Did it help get our beef across the boarder when one Canadian cow was sick? Has it helped get our lumber across the boarder to the logging industry's satisfaction? Has it ensured that when the Canadian dollar has been at par with the US dollar that goods cost the same here in Canada as they did in the US? What does NAFTA really do for Canada? Again, I apologize for not knowing exactly how NAFTA benefits the average Canadian.
|
| Partisanship scare tactics |
Holy fear-mongering by Celucci! Glad he's no longer holding the post.
|
I think the key wording is "former". Has to be a reason for that?
I wish all these speculators would just button up and sit back and wait for what the American voters want.
It really has nothing to do with what us Canadians want or think it is NOT our country and maybe it is time we started as a country to take care of ourselves instead of worrying about other countries politics!
|
I say let re-open the free trade deal, we hold all the cards, we have all the oil, natural gas, lumber, water, and quality food. So I say go ahead re-open it, the USA only stands to lose, Harper has nothing to lose & everything (majority) to gain by taking a tough stand against the US on a re-opened free trade agreement
|
Here's hoping McCain pulls it out of the fire.
|
Fear mongering is an American political tactic. It doesn't work on us Canadians. This is a completely ridiculous remark by this former amassador. Barack Obama just wants to ensure NAFTA has appropriate environmental and labor standards.
No one is going to cancel a free trade agreement at a time when the American economy is tanking! This guy has his head in the Republican clouds plain and simple.
Go Obama! Save us from the war-mongering right wing fanatics in the Republican Party!!
|
NAFTA is no good. Obama isn't going to get rid of anything. This is just a bit of theatrics before the vote (as if even that matters). I predict a McCain win, with about 20% of the vote. Same as Bush twice before him.
|
PROTECTIONISM - This is what will happen, They are out to look after the American People. The US has done this before (Prior to WWII) and they will do it again. Only they found out that it doesn't work.. But hey lets re-invent the wheel.
They can only close there borders for so long...then they will reopen them. Lets hope the Government of the day hold the flame to them and doesn't bend...over
|
NAFTA has never been a good deal for Canada. Let Mr. Obama bring it, so Canada can finally get a better deal and not have to bow down to the Americans.
|
If they start to get too tough on trade the first thing Canada should do is close the taps on oil then maybe they will come to their senses, they are already refusing to accept canadian cattle and hogs.
|
It doesn't matter who wins, it's the same old thing. Promises made, promises broken, work for the rich and get richer by the hour while the poor working class suffers regardless of who leads America. Just as long as money goes directly into their own pockets and their family and friends, nothing matters.
|
Well if this happens. I guess we can sell our oil and gas to somebody else. Then we'll see how quick they want N.A.F.T.A back. When anything doesn't seem to work out for them they slap us with tarriffs anyways. Look at our lumber.
|
A former Republican appointee is making public statements in favour of the Republican candidate during an election.
So what?
|
Yoyoma . . . You are misinformed, misunderstand or a Harper supporter! Democrats in the USA are not even close to our NDP but more in keeping with the Liberals.
Get your facts straight instead of misleading forum participants
|
Those of you who think NAFTA is "much ado about nothing" proves that ignorance is truly bliss.
Do you really think the Americans will renegotiate NAFTA for our benefit???
Yes, Mr. Hope and Change will definitely put Canadians ahead of Americans.
|
NAFTA and other FTA's Canada has signed have led to a net increase in jobs, that is true. But you really need to look past the headlines before you believe all the benefits. That net increase is made up of something like -400,000 well-paying manufacturing jobs headed for less developed countries, and +500,000 new part-time low-wage jobs (ie. 500,000-400,000=100,000 net increase, for those who can't do the math. Pls note the numbers are my own, for illustrative purposes of how you arrive at net increase, but the situation is the same). Ask the laid off manufacturing employees who have had to take lower paying part-time jobs to support their families whether free trade has been such a good thing.
Please don't believe all the smoke and mirrors of big business that is raking in the increased profits and paying out higher dividends to their shareholders. The top 10% richest are the ones benefiting (greatly!) from free trade - the lower 90% are actually losing.
|
"I do not understand why we are not looking at Chinese, Asian and European markets."
Because Asian and European markets are far weaker and less stable than American ones Allan!
Europe's banking ballout crisis is now worse than Americans and it wasn't the Europeans who had a bad lending policy. The Asian markets are wildly unstabele because unlike ours their market is still dominated by short term traders and speculators as opposed to long term holders like pension funds and the like.
Allan when it comes to peoples' money you'll find there's little apetite for anti-Americanism or other crazy political view points which don't measure up to fiscal reality.
|
This article reminds me of another one I read a few thousand years ago:
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling."
Yet still, 2,000 some years later, the sky is still there. Thankfully, I'm not losing too much sleep over either.
|
First of all McCain WON'T win, it is already written. And as far as NAFTA goes...let it go. They will be asking or taking our water soon enough.
|
The USA are not currently livng up to the "spirit" of the current "deal" so we should be just as eager to renegotiate! We can sell our natural resources to other countries of the world if need be. The softwood lumber affair shows to what extent the Americans will go to even in the face of the deal they signed using strong arm tactics, stalling techniques and biased courts to get their way. I believe Stephen Harper will play hard ball as well because we are in the drivers seat here in Canada and in the global economy. USA bullying tactics will no longer work!
By the way, I feel the same way about goods being shipped into Canada from China, India etc. We are only hurting ourselves by not insisting on similar wage and environmental laws. The rush to the bottom line has hurt everyone, even those who invited in this rush through the stock market. If anything comes of the Harper / Obama elections it should be and must be fair trade on both sides and keep foreign producers out unless they compete on similar grounds - after all we can't sell very much to them.
Ps. i'm no liberal or union loving, green socialist. I just want more made in Canada thank you.
|
Mind your own business, it sounds like fear mongering by the Conservative agenda.
Wont be long, Canada copies the USA in everything, a more liberal government south means we are not far behind, thank goodness.
Harper, when is the next election?
|
Not sure if you know, but NAFTA states that if Canada suddenly starts running low on oil reserves, we have to continue supplying oil to them. We can't just decide 'Hey, we should keep the last 10 million barrels of oil for our own use'. We are obligated to continue supplying them. I think NAFTA could stand a few changes.
|
and that would be bad because?? we got screwed in NAFTA and we would likely benefit if it got renegotiated. also what is the point of saying this to us since we have no say in what happens, it is a waste of energy. I would sooner see Obama any day that that other old coot in office with caribou barbie beside him.
|
Historically democrats have always been more protectionist than republicans. That is simply a fact. Having said that, the current agreement already heavily favours the U.S., at least in the way it is "practised" or conveniently ignored by Americans. Regardless of which party wins in the U.S., if the agreement is re-opened at least we have a leader with a backbone who will not be intimidated by the U.S. and who will get us a better deal, if anything. The democratric posturing was, to a large extent, the usual vote-grabbing garbage spewed in these presidential campaigns. Just a thought - perhaps our government should focus efforts on European trade as part of its diversification away from U.S. trade dependence???
|
We are all forgetting the major item that we are swimming in and the US is starving for.....
OIL
They sacrifice their young men in wars for it and we have it in spades....
Yup....we will start renegotating NAFTA when we see all those US gas stations with "closed" signs on them.....
This is all the more reason that we start refining our own oil now,this being our Achilles Heel,relying on the US refineries for all our gas,diesel and heating oil
|
Mark in Victoria wrote: "Fear mongering is an American political tactic. It doesn't work on us Canadians."
I'd love to agree Mark; sadly though, some of the recent conservative campaign ads took a page right out of the Cheney/Rove book of politics.
|
I totaly agree with "Robin the Hood Comments".
What did you think that Cellucci should've said, the opposite?
He's afraid of his own job...
The quicker he leaves Canada the better we'll be...
The soft wood deal we won several times in Court but Them Republicans don't comply with the World Court just their own...
NAFTA was started by Conservatives and Republicans
But they don't like to follow the rules when it's in favor of Canada.
|
I'm not worried, they want our water and our oil. Need I say more.
|
I am sure Obama's people will remember how "helpful" Stephan Harper's government was during the primaries.
NAFTA's chapter 11 is designed to thwart the will of democratically elected governments.
In NAFTA we guaranttee the oil and gas supply to the U.S. even if we have to go without.
Die NAFTA die!
|
I think you are right Kate. Ultimately, they always looked after themselves. There is nothing new here.
|
I don't recall Oil and Gas being part of the Uruguay or Dallas rounds; or any subsequent agreements thereafter. What has changed are the general Business practices, foreign ownership rules, etc... but those were not directly aimed at the oil industry, they were aimed at all industry. The articles dealing with Textiles are the worst along with Skis if I recall corectly.
NAFTA is a good deal. The problem is that we let the USA dictate what the terms would be rather than let a foreign body determine when and to which sector subsidies are actually determined as subsidies. They also know they can refuse to abide by judicial councils because Canada will bend over backwards. We win 9 (6 Major rounds and 3 minor ones)out of 10 judicial rounds and they do nothing. They win 1 round (Minor one)and we have to bend over backwards...
Take the simple commodity, yet the most important of all: Water. When used by farmers, it is an agricultural subsidy. When used by Firefighters, it is a subsidy for our wood industry. When used by the oil industry - silence. So what does Canada do ? We let Farmers go through droughts (the US provides them with water), we let our forests burn down (2 US states provide tax exemptions to all wood industry-related losses caused by fires), and we provide all the water that the oil industry needs.
If they want to fix Nafta, a) Remove the barriers that are pro- American isolationist,b), Force all parties to abide by the judicial rulings, and c)ban all subsidies or allow all subsidies for all sales within the member countries.
|
Wow! I'm so glad that we have Cellucci back in the news to tell Canadians how to think once again! He was all embarrassed that we didn't support Bush's foolish war in Iraq, now he's trying to convince us that NAFTA (and the jobs it sends to Mexico) must be saved.
|
Great its about time Nafta got scrubbed. The USA has been buggering Canada and Mexico right from the start.
|
Obama wants to correct the part of NAFTA that concerns environmental issues such as corporations being allowed to pollute and labour portions of the agreement. I don't think he wants to destroy the agreement totally. The pollution part really does need to be addressed considering polluters can sue the Government for lost profits as they have done in the past. Labour certainly does need better protection as well.
|
The Amercican President must act to protect American citizens, and if that means an end to NAFTA so be it. It is only too bad that our own (Canadian) leadership has not acted to protect us from the negative effects of NAFTA, such as the inability to put the energy needs of Canadians ahead of those of Americans.
|
He talks like NAFTA is the greatest thing to ever to happen to Canada. Talk about last minute desperation "fear-mongering".
|
Cellucci is absolutely right on this issue.And we will feel the sting when the border starts closing and our exporters spend all their time and money fighting it out in USA courtrooms.
I support the idea posted by "Allan Eizinas" about other markest.The problem right now,is that our products are to expensive for most Asian markets.If we want to sell more than natural resources,we have to find ways to reduce the cost of production here so we can sell affordable goods that actually make profits.
This is the biggest reason that paying down debt,and lower taxes are vital.As are pipelines from Alberta to BC ports.Right now,BC needs revenue,so we sell raw logs to American mills.ALberta needs revenue,so it sells oil to the USA.
Our future sovereignty depends on our ability to manage our economy in ways that benefit people here.And we cannot do that as long as we are burdened with debt and totally reliant on the export of unprocessed natural resources.
Those resources give us some leverage to access the American markets.But not if we have no other options or markets that can afford our products.
In fact,on CNN last week,one American Senator actually pointed out that an angry Canada could easily sell it's oil to China.He was quite concerned that we might now bow meekly to US demands.And in fact,might begin the process of quietly developing other markets.
Our problem may well be getting all the premiers to present a united front.And to develope a long term strategy that does not unduly punish one region of Canada.
Both Canada and the US are better off as allies.We both have to do well if North America is to do well.
|
Wouldn't that be wonderful! Canada might end up coming out on the winners' side. No more selling softwood lumber for processing in the US, only to be sold back to us in couch form.
|
It is Canada's advantage, if anyone try to renegotiate NAFTA. We are the cheapest, stable energy supplier to the South. Scarcity of the natural resources will work in Canada's favour.
During the last 8 yrs, we went nowhere on softwood, beef and other issues...
US ignored Int'l trade rulings..
Setting our own prices on oil will allow us pay down the national debt. Remember, China & India are ready to buy resources all over the world. Having resources next to Americans is a dream comes true for them.
Shall we bring Brian Tobin to negotiate for us?
|
Has anyone read chapter 11 of NAFTA? Nobody but the US and large corporations have gained anything from NAFTA. Mexico's environment is being destroyed and kept in a state of poverty and canada's rights (according to NAFTA)are ignored almost daily. YES let's get rid of NAFTA and negotiate something that will actually benefit Canadians rather than just BIG business and the US.
|
So what does all this mean: that the US won't honour its obligations and responsibilities in its agreement with its northern trading partner?
Excuse me, but since when has the US ever honoured an agreement that it was not the unambiguous and ONLY beneficiary of?
I love the US, and I love Americans, but the politics and economics of our relationship are fair game for any anti-American rants.
This soon-to-be-unemployed ambassador is toe-ing the party line. There's nothing new here.
If Obama wants to reopen NAFTA it's not like we're going to lose something that works all that well for us. We need something better, anyway.
|
Fear Mongering? Are you blind, this is not fear mongering at all. It came out of the mouth of Obama that he would open up free trade. Sure there are some flaws to NAFTA, but both Canada and the U.S. have seen the largest growth and economic expansion in their histories under this Agreement. To call this fear mongering is being ignorant of the truth, opening up NAFTA is not good for either country. It is being used as a campaign ploy by Obama to scapegoat something which is not the cause.
|
Let us all remember that Paul Celucci was the person, who, as U.S. ambassador to Canada, made inflammatory statements after the attack on the World Trade Centre, claiming that Canada was a training ground for terrorists and that part of the reason for the attack was because of our insufficiently secure borders. We should therefore not take anything this Republican mouthpiece says seriously. I sincerely hope Obama wins the election, and yes, maybe NAFTA does need to be revisited. There are obvious problems with it, problems that negatively affect both Canadian and U.S. interests.
|
If Obama is so protectionist, I would be more worried if I was Chinese rather than Canadian. All Obama has to do is go into a Wal-mart and start looking at where stuff was made. China, India, Bangladesh, et al. American jobs haven't packed up and left for Canada, they left for developing countries with little or no employment standards, wages that look like a kids allowance, and usually a dictatorship. I have my doubts that an intelligent man like Barack Obama would go after NAFTA when MILLIONS of jobs have been offshored to Asian nations.
|
Obama and his policies just plain suck. As a person that grew up along the border, he will usher in an age of "V For Vendetta" like society. How can 60% of tax paying Americans afford to give $1000 cheques each year to 40% of Americans who don;t pay taxes. America is broke and Obama will finally make them no better off than Cuba. I'm glad I'm a Canadian!!
|
The usual Republican "the sky is falling" remarks. Europe and Canada are all pulling for a Obama victory. Bush has been a moron and bankrupted the US militarily, economically and morally. This is coming from a big Harper fan.
And just what does he dislike about Canada. It has national health care, is more unionized and takes care of its people better. These are all the things he espouses for America. I suspect if he wants to renegotiate NAFTA, it would be Mexico etc that are going to take the hit.
Canada's right wing and the US's left wing are not far apart in their stances.
|
So, what's this about NAFTA?
I dont' think that the US can afford to cut Canada as it's closest trading partner.
They need us and we need them, its' that simple.
They need us because Canada has the 2nd largest oil reserve in the world.
We are an energy rich country that the US cannot simply brush off.
If they want to reopen NAFTA and renegotiate it, it could be beneficial to Canada.
So, if Mr. Obama wishes to do this, be my guest. I know of many other nations out there, such as China, India, Europe, need resources and are willing to purchase them from us as well.
|
Obama wants to end NAFTA....no problem. We have already started talks with the Europeans regarding entrance into the EU, have trade agreements with Chile and ones pending with Columbia and Korea. We should do one with Mexico as well.
The long and short is we can't be caught in the myopic sights of the US as it begins to close its borders. Let then do it and let us continue to expand relationships. I for one am positive of the outcome for the US...and it isn't pretty
|
|
Video
Related Stories
User Tools
|
View larger image