CTV News | BoC cuts interest rates, warns of 'mild recession'

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BoC cuts interest rates, warns of 'mild recession'

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tue. Oct. 21 2008 1:24 PM ET

In a surprise move Tuesday, the Bank of Canada sliced interest rates by only one-quarter of a percentage point to 2.25 per cent -- a milder cut than what many investors were expecting.

In a statement Tuesday, the central bank said three major interrelated developments are having a "profound impact" on the Canadian economy:

  • The intensification of the global financial crisis has led to severe strains in financial markets. The associated need for the global banking sector to continue to reduce leverage will restrain growth for some time
  • The global economy appears to be heading into a mild recession, led by a U.S. economy already in recession.
  • There have been sharp declines in many commodity prices.

"The outlook for growth and inflation in Canada is now more uncertain than usual," said the bank.

The G7 Plan of Action, which includes measures to stabilize financial systems, will be pivotal to resuming the flow of credit to support global economic growth, said the bank.

"Canada's economy and strong financial system will benefit directly from these actions," said the statement.

Still, the weaker outlook for global demand will increase the slowdown on the Canadian economy coming from exports.

The tightening in Canadian credit conditions will also restrain business and housing investment, said the BoC.

BNN's Michael Kane said Tuesday following the announcement that many in the marketplace were expecting a deeper half-point cut from the central bank.

"What the Bank of Canada appears to be doing is leaving itself a little bit of room," he said.

Meanwhile, Mel Fruitman, with the Consumers' Association of Canada, urged financial institutions Tuesday to pass along the Bank of Canada's rate cut to consumers through lower interest rates and even by dropping credit card rates.

Fruitman said this would allow consumers to better handle their debt load and to continue spending during the Christmas season.

Overall, the central bank expects growth to be sluggish through the first quarter of next year, then to pick up over the rest of 2009 and to accelerate to above-potential growth in 2010.

The bank projects average annual growth in real GDP of 0.6 per cent in both 2008 and 2009, and 3.4 per cent in 2010.

Core inflation is now projected to remain below 2 per cent until the end of 2010.

Total CPI inflation should peak during the third quarter of 2008, fall below 1 per cent in the middle of 2009, and then return to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2010, the bank said.

"In line with the new outlook, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the two per cent inflation target over the medium term," said the statement.

Earlier this month, the central bank slashed its key lending rate to 2.5 per cent, one of many central banks making the move around the world.

Its next scheduled rate decision will be made on Dec. 9.

In a separate move later this week, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to announce that the federal government will guarantee new inter-bank borrowing.

The money is needed to finance operations and make credit available for mortgages and business loans.

With files from The Canadian Press

Comments are now closed for this story

Dale Wilson - Edmonton
said

Wish it was more...getting that variable rate mortgage at prime -0.8 a couple of years ago looks pretty damned smart now...have to buy my mortgage broker a drink.


Ross
said

Great news. My Mortgage goes down once again!!!


Sask Man
said

If you can do it, GOOD
or Get Out Of Debt.
We should do what we can and get our debts paid down. This will provide security during uncertain times.



Cam/Grande Prairie
said

Yes, my variable rate mortgage will drop as well. Any huge increases now or in the foreseeable future would bankrupt a lot of people.
In the 80's and early 90's. rates were from 8.9%-13.9% on a mortgage. If those rates were to return..alot of people would be in alot of trouble...including myself.


J.C.
said

This move only helps those with mortages etc.
I wish the government would force the financers to lower interest rates on credit cards. There are many people paying extremely high rates for expensive car repairs etc. that they must have done in order to get to work etc. Credit card companies take advantage of those with lower incomes or fixed incomes.


Ross
said

Yes, I agre about credit cards. Bring tohose down to 8 to 10%. People are paying their credit cards, but so much is going to interest and it seems like it never goes down. Shame on Credit card companies.Mr.Harper has to get involved.


RCP
said

J.C The lowering interest rate also helps businesses with loans (so they dont go out of business and lay off God knows how many people... who then cant pay for their houses). It also helps people like myself who have a line of credit at the bank. the lower the interest rate, the less interest I pay onm the 25,000 I owe


AD
said

Why are people complaining about credit card debts and interest rates?? If you can't afford to pay for something with cash, don't buy it! ... why not look into a line of credit for financing ...expensive car repairs?


Financial Planner in Vancouver
said

Credit card debt should be replaced with a bank line of credit. The reduced rates will ease the interest payable on the LOC and allow people to pay the debt down quickly. Now it's time for all Canadians to be debt wise.

Remember, interest is negotiable when dealing with the banks. They do not charge you the 2.25 prime, they charge you their posted prime. The banks do not have to lower their rate with this announcement, so make sure you know what you are paying. It's time Canadians became more responsible about debt.


Not understanding the logic
said

Isn't the primary problem that the banks are short on money? So how does lowering how much they can make on a loan help that? Who do I borrow from if there is no one to loan me the money?



paul
said

While I agree with Ross and JC re the credit card interest rate I thought people would like to know that if you are in dispute with Canada Revenue and you lose your case they will charge you 28% on the money owing. If you win they pay you approx 5% on the money they owe you.


Jenna
said

Time for the savers among us to take our money out of our bank accounts before rates descend into negative territory and the banks actually start charging us to keep our money there. We're always at the mercy of those who choose to be in debt.


az
said

This should be good news, but the banks are not forced to adjust there prime rate. Just because the bank of Canada lowers rates does not mean that we will see it.

For example in august I received a rate of 5.6 from the Bank of Montreal. I phoned yesterday (after 2 cuts to the BoC rate) and now the best rate was 5.76??? Same bank, same specialist.


J.C.
said

To RCP
Yes I realize that but I am just pointing out that the amount of interest on credit cards is totally ridiculous. I understand that they should be a bit higher than bank loans etc. but they are way out of proportion so the average or low income person (who is not a spendthrift) can pay it off in a relative time period. The interest charges on credit cards is WAY OUT OF LINE!!


Dale Wilson - Edmonton
said

Credit cards are a real problem, particularly the merchant cards which I believe are still at 29% or something nearly as grotesque. Let me say up front that I've been fortunate enough to not have to carry a balance on my card..but the card I do have (from one of the big banks) has an 14.99 interest rate. In my humble opinion this is still usury but at least it ain't 29.9%. Seems to me if you live within your means and shop around for a card with a decent rate, the problem can be mitigated. Stuff happens though and if my car crapped out, I would indeed have to carry a balance for a couple of months or more. If I did, I'd rather have the 11.49 rate than 29.9. I have friends who jump at those 10% or 20% off if you put your purchase on a merchant card deals and then take 6 months to pay the thing off...doesn't make any sense, but maybe thats just me.


Janice Large - Fort St. John, BC
said

Ive had my home since 1997, my payments will still stay the same, so how will this give my household a break??
Sure its a buyers market out there but who has money to buy a new house now? Not many people in North Eastern
BC and this is suppose to be the rich part of the country...hmmmm...


Dave from Toronto
said

I doubt the banks will pass this on to their customers. Gone are the days of the Central bank rate and the rates the banks charge their clients moving in tandem.
It just makes it cheaper for the banks to borrow from the central bank.


trunorth
said

Don't get too excited about this news just yet. Have the chartered banks indicated that they will follow suit? They didn't pass on the entire rate decrease from the Bank of Canada last time. What will they do now, if anything?


JJ in Saskatoon
said

Here's a little tip for those of you complaining about credit card rates - if you can't afford to pay them off, DON'T USE THEM! That's how we got in this mess in the first place!

Furthermore, Financial Planner in Vancouver has a great point - use a line of credit (prime + or - a bit) instead of a credit card (18-20%). Why is it government's responsibility to save people from their own lack of control?


Darcy
said

To Paul, I think that you may be a little misinformed regarding Canada Revenue. Interest rate from the government paid to you if they owe you money is 5%. The interest rate for you if you owe them money is 7%. Not really sure where your 28% came from, but it must be some kind of extra penalty, and not just interest, cause the regular rate is 7%


The Widowmaker
said

But I thought our great Prime Minister and his side kick Mr. Finance said that the Canadian economey would be ok. You mean they lied to us again?


Len Curle
said

Well, we have a great Prime MInister right now, who forseen the uopcoming economic global upheaval and shored up our banks last year. That shows a gutsy move and a smart move at that. Liberals would have missed the boat on this and we would be in the rest of world's economic disaster. Thank God for Stephen Harper, next election he will have a majority governmnet !!


Dale Wilson - Edmonton
said

...The facts are that although Canada is not isolated from whats going on the world economy, we're better off than the vast majority of countries out there. The banks appear to be sound, the economy is still pretty strong and we've got a good thing going. ...

Oldfish Calgary
said

...I believe that PM Harper and FM Flaherty were telling the truth that our Canadian Economy is doing fine at that time relative to the global economy. But because of intense volatility, our economy might have deteriorated a bit from when they said it was fine. And to prevent/stop the economy from deteriorating some more in the comings months, PM and FM are doing proactive actions/remedies right now.



Robin the Hood
said

they keep predicting a bad recession for the US and now only a mild one for Canada. Down from no recession just a few months ago! This despite the fact that 75% of our exports go to the US??... those people are living in Lala land!



Dayton
said

Now is the time to go house shopping. The rates have never been this low. 30 years ago we were paying 10% higher interest than today. My son just bought a house with a 7 year fixed rate. His payments are $150 to $200 per month less than a rental unit. There are going to be bargains out there if people can swing it.


Nora, Toronto
said

Don't count on mortgage rates dropping any time soon unless it's in your existing agreement. I just spoke to a Scotiabank mortgage rep who informed me that although the prime rate has dropped yet again, i.e. the rate they pay to borrow, the rate they charge for new mortgages has gone from the bank's prime minus a fraction of a percent a couple of weeks ago to their prime (currently still 4.25%) PLUS 1%. So much for passing along savings to those who need it most!


BC
said

I believe the bond market controls the fixed mortgage rates?
Shop for better rates on your credit cards. My AMEX is 10.99% as long as the account is in good standing.


Bewildered in Toronto
said

What, pray tell is so important that one would drive themselves into $30-$100,000.00 credit card debt?

We were in Alberta when a combination of the NEP and 18% interest rates took 10's of thousands of homes away from otherwise, able payers of mortgages.

Trudeau and Lalonde with the help of ...compliant media, were, somehow, able to keep that little blip off the national television screens.

Another example of Liberals utterly scoochin' the pooch....

I am grateful for the Harper Government and the policies that have been put in place.


Helle Thomsen - Guelph, Ontario
said

I agree with many of the comments regarding the use of credit cards, if you cannot pay cash, you can probably not afford to buy it ... simple. And, to reduce the interest rate, you can call the credit card companies and ask for them to reduce it. If initially, they say "No" just be persistant and ask to speak to a person there who can do it ... do not take "No" for an answer. Being persistant pays off ... it may only be reduced 5% but money is money and that saving can go to my principal. And, in another few months, do the same again ... save your money!

Regarding replacing credit card debt with a line of credit is great ... one of my relatives just did it and she will save 14% per year (21% vs. 7%) ... I am sooooo happy for her!

But what about working stiffs like me who cannot get a line of credit since I do not have any capital to borrow against? I have reduced my interest rate, throw as much money against my card as possible and do not use it!


Newfie in Ontario
said

To JJ in Saskatoon & Financial Planner in Vancouver

I agree with you about not using credit cards when you know you can't pay them back, but...
Its not that easy for people who are just building their credit to get a line of credit with the bank.. I know, I've tried.
And yes, I do pay my credit card off every time I use it.


Nick in Gatineau
said

Banks establish a percentage of bad returns on the money they lend to you by way of mortgages. On average, that percentage adds up to $0.25 for every $ 1000.00 lent up to $ 5.00 for every $ 1000.00 lent. Everytime you make a payment, it is invested in short term or long term investments by the investment side of the bank. A quick glance at their balance sheet will outline their dilution ratios. They only keep a minimum to cover the equivalent of the bad investment.

When a confidenced run occurrs, such as what happened here, the percentage shoots up to between $ 5.00 and $ 100.00 for every $1000.00 lent.

Banks then have to cash in their investments - with penalties because they don't have the cash on hand to cover the demand of the investment side which has promised rate of returns it can no longer sustain.

The size of the investment can also create huge problems. Imagine that you place your money in an institutions' funds - and they re-invest it. You come along and take it out. So you pay a penalty, they pay a penalty. The returns disappear, everyone loses.

However...


Scene
said

Plain and simple, it's up to the banks to pass on the rate cut to us the consumer. They didn't do it last time, lets hope they do it this time. Not sure what to blame here, the banks being scared to lend more money out in bad times, or maybe just them being greedy and keeping the cash!


Nick in Gatineau
said

...Considering that there are 8 to 10 Million mortgages in Canada one can average them, out to $ 200,000.00. That comes up to an average of $ 80 Billion. If only $ 20 Billion is the maximum for the bad mortgages why have the banks received close to $ 75 Billion so far ?


Shamaro
said

This would be a good time for Banks to lower their lending rates as well.

The consumer who is being pummelled by high mortgages and credit card debt are going to be hit hard if this economic slow down continues.

At least if the banks lower their rates, this will help offset the number of people and businesses declare bankruptcy and at least this way, everybody wins.

But something tells me that the banks here in this country aren't going to be so generous and will hold their rates.

My opinion is, that this global financial crisis we are witnessing is going to grow into something much worse than the depression of the '30's.



eskiefan
said

It always befuddles me how the solution to too much debt is seen to be to encourage more debt by lowering interest rates. What ever happened to reducing expenses to manageable levels, living modestly, tightening your belt for a while, using cash, putting aside savings and getting on top of the game as a way of getting out of financial trouble? I'd rather see high interest rates to encourage people to avoid credit debt, save and get on their feet. (I know, I'm in a very small minority, but I HATE DEBT!)


Evan/Kingston
said

...I don't know what you expect Stephen Harper to do, it's not his responsibility to bail you(or anyone) out for being irresponsible with your money, credit card companies do make a living off of people who can't afford to pay, but it's no secret that interest rates on these cards are high. It comes down the the individual to be aware of how much they are spending, and nobody should be surprised to find that there are consequences to spending money they don't have.


Yuri
said

Bringing credit card rates down might be a tough thing to do. I believe that most of the rate on a credit card goes to pay down the huge amount of fraud that is carried out with such cards. It only stands to reason that the retailer and of course the credit card company are not going to suffer the loss hence, the big interest rates.


Doug BC
said

"Jenna" makes a good point among the list of posters glad to see their mortgage rates go down.The gain is for those i debt.The loss is for those who have saced,and rely on interest income to survive.
As to credit cards,I think people who use them get what they deserve.Rates are high because the default rate is high.Get rid of them,or pay the balance every month.You do have a choice.
I also like the way "Sask Man" thinks.I would only add that we should elect governments who think the same way.
Canada used to be a nation of "savers".I think we will all be better off if the new tax free savings account has the desired impact on our habits in the future.
Debt is the slayer of nations,individuals,families and dreams.
AVOID debt as much as you possibly can.For a home,or for a decent car,it can be useful.For that extra TV or that dream vacation,save up the money,pay off expensive debt,and use earned money for luxuries and extras.
You will sleep better,and eventually move up the economic ladder.


Brian
said

I understand that Fixed Rate Mortgage are tied to the bond market whereas variable rate mortgages are tied to the prime rate.

Therefore, people with fixed rate mortgages may not see a reduction.


retireby45
said

Mortgage rates going down? Where? Which bank? Unless the banks lower their prime rates (which they have yet to do) mortgagte rates will remain the same. I am in a 5% 1 yr morgage right now, the BoC prime rate is now a full percent lower now than it was when I signed my one year mortgage. I called my bank and asked for a one year and lo and behold it is HIGHER now than last year. The banks need to follow the BoC so that the home owner will have more free dollars to spend on everything else. That is the only way we will not end up in a modest recession.


Renting in Calgary
said

I'm sure my landlord will love the savings on her mortgage, but as a renter I won't see the benefits. No way is she going to reduce my rent just because interest rates dropped.

Hopefully the housing market won't take off again before I can finish saving for a down payment.


Phil Hauser, CFP London
said

The bank rate cut is decent news as the real problem is simply access to credit. If the banks pay less for credit they can provide it easier whether or not (and they should) pass this savings on to prime rate customers. If this cut and possibly others further leads to confidence the billions in mutual and pension funds will recover a little easier as well.

As a financial planner myself I agree with Financial Planner Vancouver
when he/she states that we all need to monitor our credit.

However, this is not a short term thing. We all need to be cognizant of our credit all the time and work to reduce it when possible.

Those who are less highly leveraged have more freedom.

Eg 1. no mortgage payment is easier if you lose a job then having a mortgage payment.

Eg 2. investment accounts that are not margined do not run as high a risk of needing liquidation in this crunch.

I am not saying credit is evil, just that it needs to be used responsibly. Unfortunately the habit of NOT saving has replaced the habit of saving especially in the US.

That is the problem we are in today. If people had set aside the ease of buying a house and judged it only on whether they could afford to buy the situation today is not so bleak.

Hire a financial planner but be sure you are getting advice that is not tied exclusively to product sales.




BC Wet Coaster
said

Anyone paying interest on credit cards should have their credit cards taken away from them since they are demonstrating that they are simply not responsible enough to use them.

Stompin Tom had it right when he wrote "The Consumer": you guys are all "spending money [you] don't got".


Scott in Kingston
said

I hope that the banks follow with a rate cut also; and none of this "0.15% cut instead of 0.25%" crap that happened with CIBC last time.

I pay way too much on my student loan as it is.


Debt Monster
said

This will likely lead to more people buying houses beyond their means. They will extend themselves further because their monthly payment will be low and when the rate goes back up, and it will go back up in a few years, then they will be over extended.

These are the same people that will buy SUVs now because gas prices dropped and then complain when gas goes back up.

Think to the future people.


Rob ns
said

.65 below prime ...awesome...keep it coming...varible rates are paying off....


Dale Wilson - Edmonton
said

Dale Wilson,

My mortgage is with one of the major banks, they all appear to have dropped their prime. My variable rate mortgage is now 4% - 0.8% = 3.2%. Still paying the same amount I was 3 years ago...knocked 6 years off the length of the mortgage...nice...maybe I will have it paid off before I go senile.


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