CTV News | Gains for far right predicted in Austrian elections

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Gains for far right predicted in Austrian elections

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The Associated Press

Date: Sunday Sep. 28, 2008 7:29 AM ET

VIENNA, Austria — Austrians were voting in parliamentary elections Sunday that analysts say could bolster the standing of the country's far-right and give the main ruling parties their worst results in years.

The governing coalition of the conservative People's Party and the center-left Social Democrats crumbled in July after months of bickering. What followed was a summer-long election campaign involving 10 parties on a national level. Four less-known groups are on the ballot in several districts.

On the eve of Sunday's election, the two power-sharing blocs were running neck and neck for the top spot. But neither look likely to secure an absolute majority.

Instead, experts said disgruntled voters may reach out -- largely in protest -- to the rightist Freedom Party and Alliance for the Future of Austria: groups known for their populist, anti-immigration rhetoric.

"Definitely the parties in government - the Social Democrats and the Christian conservatives -- will lose" votes, said Peter Filzmaier, a respected Austrian political commentator, adding that both could see their worst results since 1945.

"The so-called Freedom Party, as well as the Alliance for the Future of Austria, will be a big winner," Filzmaier predicted.

Some 6.3 million people are eligible to vote, including 16- and 17-year-olds under a new law that dropped the minimum voting age. In total, 183 seats in parliament are to be filled.

One voter leaving a polling station in Vienna's diverse 5th district seemed to expect little to change after the election. "There's going to be more of the same," said Hermann Koril, a retiree.

Recent polls predict the Freedom Party will come in third behind the two main parties with about 18 percent of the vote. They show that the Alliance for the Future of Austria, led by Joerg Haider, could double its 4 percent result in 2006 elections.

But Filzmaier says any gains those parties may make will be more an expression of discontent with the current coalition than a reflection of a fundamental shift to the far right.

"We don't have more right-oriented voters than in 2006 when they gained 15 percent together," he said. "It's because of a negative mood of frustration, of political mistrust of the grand coalition."

Christoph Hofinger, co-director of the Vienna-based SORA Institute for Social Research and Analysis, said the right's combined results could come to about a quarter of all votes.

"Generally, we can say that the total ... share of votes for the right-wing parties is probably going to be as high as in the late '90s," he said.

In 1999, Haider, then leader of the Freedom Party, raked in 27 percent of the vote. His party's subsequent inclusion in the government -- despite international alarm over statements seen as anti-Semitic or sympathetic to Adolf Hitler's labor policies - triggered months of European Union sanctions.

Haider has since toned down his rhetoric and generally appears more moderate. Not so the other leading rightist, Heinz-Christian Strache of the Freedom Party, whose campaign has been laced with anti-Islamic statements such as "the minaret has no place in Austria."

His supporters contend he is not a racist and argue he is the only politician representing the concerns and interests of ordinary Austrians.

Despite the right's predicted gains, analysts say it was unclear whether they would become part of the next governing coalition.

Filzmaier sees two possible scenarios: The country could see a weak repeat of the so-called grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the People's Party - or it may have to contend with a coalition of the People's Party and the two rightist parties.

Hofinger, however, says another grand coalition of the parties that governed in the last two years appears the most realistic outcome. Undecided voters could have an impact on any predictions, analysts said.

Postal votes could also be crucial to the outcome, with voters able to send them until Oct. 6, when final results are expected.

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