CTV.ca | 45 ridings that can change the country: Polling the battleground 2008


	A voter casts his ballot in a Montreal riding during the last federal election, on Monday, January 23, 2006. (David Boily / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

45 ridings that can change the country: Polling the battleground 2008

Updated Sun. Sep. 7 2008 10:19 PM ET

Peter Donolo and Tim Woolstencroft , The Strategic Counsel

In the last federal election, in 2006, almost 15 million Canadians cast their ballots. But the reality is that the decisive factor -- the difference between a Conservative or Liberal minority government came down to less than 15,000 votes in a dozen tightly-fought ridings.

That's all it took. The swing votes of .001 per cent of Canadian voters, in a few key ridings. And a government was overturned.

As Canadians, we've grown used to watching U.S. presidential elections that are slugged out in a handful of battleground states that are neither firmly in the Republican nor Democratic column. We all remember how the 2000 presidential race came down to a controversial recount in Florida that handed George W. Bush the most razor-sharp of victories.

That's why so much of the campaign coverage South of the Border is focused on the state-of-play in about a half dozen of those battleground states.

Well, in our own election, the difference between victory and defeat, between minority and majority government, will also be decided in a number of key battleground regions, concentrated primarily in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

We already know how things are likely to go in the Conservative fortress of Alberta or the Liberal bastion of downtown Toronto. These battleground areas in the three large provinces -- where there is both the critical mass of seats and the electoral tightness -- are most likely to keep us on the edge of our seats on October 14th.

The political parties know this. That's why they'll be aiming their heavy artillery at shifting votes in about 45 of these ridings.

Now, Canadians can follow the trench war. Because, for the first time we'll be tracking the results in these battlegrounds -- on a day-to-day basis. Following the trends, picking up on any shifts. And reporting them directly to you, through CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

We've chosen 45 battleground ridings -- 20 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, 10 in BC. Our criteria was very simple, and very strict.

We chose the ridings in those provinces that had the closest margins in the last election (or, if applicable) in a subsequent by-election. In most of these ridings, the winner won by less than five per cent. In one riding (Parry Sound-Muskoka), the margin came down to a mere 28 votes. In all of them, votes for third parties made the difference between who won and who lost.

Every night, we'll be polling 405 Canadians in these battlegrounds. We'll be able to track who's up and who's down and -- much more important -- why those shifts are happening.

It will be the most laser-focused, polling anywhere in the campaign. We think it will help Canadians better understand the forces at play in Election 2008. And a more informed, more analytical electorate is better for everyone.

Peter Donolo is Partner and Tim Woolstencroft is Managing Partner of The Strategic Counsel, the official polling firm for The Globe and Mail and CTV News

The Battleground 2008 Ridings:

British Columbia:

Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.

Ontario:

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orléans, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.

Quebec:

Louis-Hébert, Ahuntsic, Beauport-Limoilou, Brossard-La Prairie, Papineau, Charlesbourg--Haut-Saint-Charles, Hull-Aylmer, Honoré-Mercier, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval-Les Îles, Gatineau, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Brome-Missisquoi.