The resignation of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has left his country slightly more democratic but its politics just as chaotic, say Pakistan watchers.

"It's a thunderclap both for Pakistan and its foreign supporters," Eric Margolis told CTV Newsnet on Monday.

Musharraf, the former army chief who took power in a 1999 coup, stepped down in response to the near-certain threat of impeachment by the country's parliament. 

The two main parties in Pakistan's parliament are the Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), led by the Bhutto family, and the Pakistan Muslim League-N, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The PPP dominated in the February elections.

However, Margolis said there are very real questions that affect the nuclear-armed South Asian nation's stability:

• Can the coalition between the two parties hold?
• Who will become president?
• What powers will the new president hold?

Sharif vs. the Bhuttos

A major question will be how well the civilian government can continue to work together, Margolis said.

Sharif is a former prime minister of Pakistan deposed by Musharraf. He and the Bhuttos -- Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto, husband and son respectively of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto -- are political rivals.

"The one thing the two had in common was their opposition to Musharraf," Louis Delvoie -- a senior fellow at Queens University's Centre for International Relations and a one-time Canadian high commissioner to Pakistan -- told CTV.ca.

There is some talk that Zardari might wish to seek the presidency, but only if it remains as a powerful post and not downgraded into a figurehead one, Margolis said.

Sharif's party has said it could live with Zardari as president, but only if the position is made ceremonial.

Margolis said Zardari, a minister under Benazir Bhutto, has some grave allegations of corruption hanging over him.  "A lot of Pakistanis feel he is not fit to be president or prime minister of Pakistan until these allegations are finally cleared up," he said, adding Sharif has also been dogged by corruption allegations.

Tariq Amin-Khan, a professor at Toronto's Ryerson University, told CTV.ca that another key issue is the restoration of the nine supreme court judges sacked by Musharraf as he attempted to cling to power last fall. 

"I think that is a big stumbling block," he said, noting that for whatever reason, the PPP hasn't pushed the restoration forward even though it said that it would.

Musharraf's departure will put an end to what Amin-Khan called "the blame game" -- both Musharraf and the parties pointing fingers at each other for political paralysis in the country -- that has hurt Pakistan.

"Now that he's gone, they will be accountable to what's happening," he said.

Terrorism, Afghanistan

There are also questions about how developments in Pakistan will affect neighbouring Afghanistan, where Canada has 2,500 troops as part of a NATO coalition trying to stabilize the elected government of President Hamid Karzai.

"There's going to be a lot of change now in Pakistan's policies, both internally and towards Afghanistan," Margolis said, noting the two main coalition parties favour reducing Pakistan's role in the so-called war on terror.

Pakistan is a key front and has received billions in military aid from the United States since September 2001. Its restive tribal regions are home to domestic Islamist militants and provide sanctuary to Taliban fighters from Afghanistan -- and to al Qaeda, the global Islamist terror group.

Margolis said Musharraf, who publicly opposed foreign troops operating on his country's soil, tacitly gave the U.S. the green light to carry out missile strikes on al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan -- along with some ground raids.

The new government would oppose such moves, but the U.S. has made it clear it won't seek permission if it has a chance to take out a high-value al Qaeda target, he said.

Domestically, Margolis said the war on terror is really "a fight against Pashtun tribesmen along the North West Frontier of Pakistan who are supportive of their Pashtun first cousins in Afghanistan."

The new civilian government has moved towards scaling back its military operations in the tribal areas and attempted to reach political settlements with militants. However, that effort is fraying in some areas such as the Swat Valley, where clashes between militants and government forces have left more than 100 dead in recent weeks.

Margolis said Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan's top military leader, is in step with the civilian leadership.

Delvoie said that the new government is basically following Musharraf's lead on dealing with the tribal areas conflict.

Afghanistan has complained that easing up on the battle against militants in Pakistan simply frees up more fighters to cross the porous border into its territory.

While Canada and Afghanistan might complain about the border, sealing it would be impossible, Delvoie said.

Amin-Khan said that a military solution in the tribal areas isn't possible.

To win support of the populace there, the government needs to do a better job of providing basic governance and to alleviate the high levels of poverty, he said.

While it doesn't affect Canadian interests as directly, relations between India and Pakistan -- particularly with respects to Kashmir -- are key foreign policy issues in Pakistan. Several wars have been fought with India over Kashmir since partition in 1947.

"I think with all of its other troubles (Islamist militants in the tribal areas, secessionists in Baluchistan), the last thing the government would want to do is stir the pot in Kashmir," Delvoie said.

However, Kashmir has been known to bubble up on its own, he said.

From New Delhi, CTV's South Asia Bureau Chief Paul Workman told Newsnet that India's news media has been absolutely obsessed by the Musharraf story and what it might mean to their country.

Margolis said even if things seriously deteriorate in Pakistan in the coming months, its military has very secure control over the country's nuclear arsenal.

"There is absolutely no risk of the bomb falling into radicals' hands -- unless the army were to split apart into different factions. But for the time being, that's not happening," he said.