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Canada's economic picture darkening: economist

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Canada AM: Patricia Croft, Phillips, Hager and North

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tue. Jul. 29 2008 8:30 AM ET

Recent rounds of job cuts by major corporations suggest it's Canada's turn to experience some economic pain, a prominent economist said Tuesday.

"We've been a bit of an oasis in the global economy," Patricia Croft, chief economist at the investment bank Phillips, Hager and North, told CTV's Canada AM.

"We've been protected (from) many of the trends we're seeing in countries like the U.K., Spain, the United States and Ireland. We've been protected by the high price of energy, but now unfortunately, it's our turn."

Earlier this month, Statistics Canada reported an unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent. Most of the 39,000 jobs lost were based in Ontario, where high energy costs and a high Canadian dollar continue to take a toll on competitiveness in the manufacturing sector there.

"Canada actually shed jobs (in June)," Croft said, adding, "I think we can expect more of the same."

On Monday, Bell Canada Enterprises announced it would be shedding 2,500 jobs, and Air Canada flight attendants protested a company move to eliminate 600 of their jobs.

Croft said the job loss looks to be broad-based. For example, construction jobs actually declined in June -- the first time that has happened in two years.

"Housing markets are cooling across Canada," she said.

The high dollar is hurting tourism, high food and energy prices shake consumer confidence, and of course, corporations are restructuring, she said.

There's also a regional story: Ontario's unemployment rate is 6.7 per cent, which is above the national average.

However, in energy-rich Alberta, the employment to population ratio is at a record high, she said.

While Canada's economy is slowing, Croft said the country isn't in a recession.

"Canada's economy is a bastion of strength compared to what is happening globally," she said.

Comments are now closed for this story

Chris
said

Why do we need weekly reports from different economists talking about how bad the economy is, and how it's going to get worse? We can see for ourselves! In a good economy we don't see thousands of jobs being shaved by one company. In a good economy we don't see high food prices and high energy prices. Do they really think that we're that dumb? That without an economist pointing it out, we would never know?


Collin
said

Thank god Alberta is still chugging along. It spreads jobs all through this country. Isn't it a shame many people in the east continue to call us neo-cons.


John from ON
said

Economists are as accurate as Meteorologists, enough said. At least the Weatherman has changed his tune by forecast a chance of everything these days. Maybe the economic forecasters should do the same?


NC
said

A well respected economist
says Canada is next inline to hurt. But Canada is a bastion of strength compared to what is happening globally.
Are we hurting? or are we strong?
These economist are so confusing.


J.C.
said

It is too bad the Liberals in Ontario did not pay heed to Mr. Flaherty's advice a while ago.
Maybe then Ontario would not have so many lay-offs.
It is good to see that Canada is doing quite well on the Global Scale though. Let's hope it remains that way. I fear what may happen if Dion is elected and his "Green Shift Plan" takes effect.


G
said

Shedding jobs yet we have a labour shortage...Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta all have more jobs than people. Go West if you need employment.

Poor and uncompetetive manufacturing jobs will not have a comeback.

That said Toyota is expanding...nothing poor or uncompetetive there...makes you wonder...


Sask Man
said

Looking for work??

Come west, we need good people on our farms and cities here in Saskatchewan.


ken wheelans
said

Economist's are always right...EVENTUALLY


Rob O
said

Oh No! The sky is falling and we should expect more job losses. It seems that we get this cycle every 20 or so years. It happen in the 80's and its happening again. We made it through the last downturn, I'm sure we can all make it thru once again.




Al Wood
said

I hope I'm parsing the information correctly:
This Economist is saying as a country we will feel some of the global economic pain. Which is understandable given the close economic ties that exist world wide between trading partners. Our largest being the US and the news has reported all the problems they are having. So this economic pain is to be expected.

This Economist also says the Canadian economy "is a bastion of strength compared to what is happening globally". This tells me our Federal Government has done all the right things to ensure the global economic slowdown has been tempered for Canada.


Steve
said

The economy has many sectors. Economists track trends in each and pass on the information. I need to know the extent of the good and the bad in each region. Then you have to factor in the fact that if you get ten economists together you will get a dozen opinions - all dismal - probably, well maybe possibly - all things considered - and all other things unchanged and ...


ron
said

who decided canada's goal is endless expantion/more exports/more jobs/more cars/ houses etc. maybe its time we cooled our jets. quality of life is the important factor.


dk
said

More people would go west except that there is also a housing crunch and prices have increased way beyond historical (especially in Sask.).

There's alot of people in Windsor looking for jobs. It's a great place to find some spare labour.


Dennis L. Krahn
said

NC: All the lady is saying is that we are not yet as deep in the glue as the rest of the world.

Obviously she has looked at the global picture and come up with what looks like a fairly accurate assessment of the Canadian economy.


pp
said

"corporations are restructuring" - that is my biggest worry - we have been having that sort of thing going on where I work and it's always a worry. But I am still here, so I guess - so far so good!!!

I think we are going to be in for quite a rough ride in the next year and a half though. I don't think we will be as bad as the US or Europe but I think Canada will be in for one rough ride :(



Trent
said

Its sad to see that the Canadian new services are adopting the policy of 'doom and gloom' reporting of their US counterparts.


business grad
said

Economics is actually a branch of psychology :)
If you tell people we are in a downturn, they stop spending and we are in a downturn.


Dude from the Maritimes
said

To 'Collin':

I am from Nova Scotia and live on PEI and have nothing bad to say about Alberta. Many people I know have gone to Alberta to work have nothing bad to say about it either.
It seems like you would like us to be jealous or upset by your economy.
Guess what, we're all in this together from Coast to Coast to Coast.


Eileen25
said

I am an employer in the Vancouver area and find it is virtually impossible to find employees. It is not uncommon to advertise for a month and get only one or two applications. PLEASE, if you want a job, move West.


Skite in AB
said

"Go West young man/ haven't you been told/ [Alberta]'s full of whiskey, women, and gold"

- Toby Keith


A Real IT Manager From Calgary
said

Collin is right. Alberta and now also Saskatchewan are the driving force behind the economy in Canada and all we get is bashed as well as targeted by Dion's Liberals who want to transfer money from the west to pay for social programs in central Canada. Oh yes and to win votes too in Ontario and Quebec.

Alberta is probably singly responsible for a couple of percentage drops in the unemployment rate in the Maritime provinces.


Wayne
said

I think our current gov't policies the last few years have been spot on and are in large part helping us to weather this storm I hope if there is an election in the fall that the Conservatives win as I am very afraid of the direction and consequences of a Liberal gov't under Dion.


Ceteris Paribus
said

Ron, the goal is not so much endless expansion and consumption as it is increasing productivity over time.

Productivity determines wealth which is linked to our standard of living.

If we cannot maintain constant productivity growth our wealth relative to the US and much of the rest of the world will decline and we will be outbid for all the goods we need to maintain our quality of life.

If we are going to hew wood and draw water, we need to learn to do it better. So far the results have been dismal.


Pat_Pending
said

"go west young man" - clearly, that's Harper's plan. His made in Alberta, high interest rate fiscal policy is making sure Ontario's economy goes into the sink. The federal government's high manufacturing taxes (which are nearly twice the Ontario rate) is also crippling business to say nothing of the 20 plus billion every year which is robbed from Ontario to fund the rest of the country and to subsidize the energy sector out west.

After just two years, he has driven the economy into the dumper, increased government spending to unheard of levels and put the finances of the country back into a deficit. Imagine the economic nightmare he could have unleashed if he had a majority? The horror...the horror.


Nick T
said

Do these economists not realize that by opening their big mouths constantly, they are also helping to fuel investor's worries? They spread doom and gloom daily lately, and we see the market take a bit of a fall. Maybe they should just keep quiet for a bit instead of getting their 15 seconds of fame.


Rob
said

Hey Collin,
Why is it you good folks in Alberta always pit yourself against the east and mostly Ontario?
It's that divisive attitude that causes neocon stereotypes in the first place! If Ontario (the engine of this country) is feeling the pain, so too
will oil rich Alberta eventually! We are all Canadian, and when one province feels economic woes , as we do in Ontario, it is up to the other provinces to pitch in and help out. It may be time for other parts of Canada to help bail out Ontario( for once!), like we have for ALL other Canadian provinces including precious Alberta! The good news is that Ontario has a diversified economy, so we will keep chugging along, but can Alberta say the same? Ontario has always been the might of this country and never rubs it in the face of the other provinces that have an inferior complex! Grow up Collin, you may live in Alberta, but it's just a fraction of what makes this country so great!


softwareprogrammer
said

Ok, I am packing my things and going West... :)


Chris
said

Ya know what? I'm getting sick of seeing all the "Move west" and "If you want a job, move west! We've got plenty of them here!" any time an economic article comes up. I have a job in Ontario. Probably a hell of a lot better than the minimum wage crap that's being offered out west. Also, the fact that I can find a decent house for $200k, where the same thing is $500k in Alberta. I don't feel like paying twice the cost of something just because it's out west. I'm plenty happy being here in Ontario, thank you very much.


Rod
said

Hey Rob
Its a good thing the gas tank is full because it seem the engine (Ontario) is missing a bit and is in need of a tune - up. lol


Roger T
said

So our Gov't and retailers are still holding off on the R word. It's too late, the RECESSION has started back in Feb. this year as people are worried about the economic state of our country because we relay 95% on the US market and the American dream is now over for millions which has now affected us all!

WE ARE IN A RECESSION AND THERE IS NO DENYING IT ANYMORE! WAKE UP!


Nancy
said

If Economists are always doom and gloom.

Alberta is booming, Saskatchewan is boooming, New Foundland is Booming, British Columbia is doing just fine, Nova Scotis is doing fine.

The only economic lump is Ontario, and it is do to poor Prvinical Management by a Premier who will not change his disaterous policies.

The Green Shift Threat is stopping Airlines from investing.

The Dump Dion Movement in Guelph would mean a change in Liberal leadership and quit scaring buiness away.


Greg
said

These economists change there mind every week. No wonder their is so many traders out there. Canada is a Powerhouse for the world. Everyone needs are commodities. Lets not be so doom and gloom. Why not be more positive or are they trying to drive the stock market down so they can buy lower !!


janet
said

How depressing everyday to wake up to doom and gloom with our economy. I know you can't stick your head in the sand and pretend its not happening but bad news/rumors spread like wildfire and people feed off these fears.


A Real IT Manager From Calgary
said

The posters here who blame Harper for Ontario's woes clearly do not know what they are talking about. Ontario's woes are caused by the economic downturn in the US and has nothing to do with the Harper government. If the customer base (in this case, the US) diminishes, then you'll have problems selling your products.

As to those whining about Alberta's energy exports driving up the Canadian dollar, if Ontario's manufacturers need a 60 cent dollar to compete with the US, then it's time for Ontario to tighten its belt and improve productivity. Alberta tightened its belt in the early 90's big time.

And a rebuttal to Rob, just by saying that Ontario has always been the might of the country, I would call that 'rubbing it in'.


dean
said

Lets not forget that here in Newfoundland things are booming.
The housing markets continues to grow despite talk of it cooling down across the rest of the country. And with several major developments coming up in the next few years it should just get better. Seems to me that if Ont. or Que. are doing bad the whole country is in trouble according to economists. The east and west ends of the country I think are doing great. Thats just my opinion whether it be right or wrong.


Brian Mallard
said

Why is it always Alberta and Saskatchewan that are the driving force of the economy as Real IT Manager from Calgary states? Newfoundland will come off equalization this year for the first time since 1949 and will be a have-province (we are now truth be known). This means NL will contribute even MORE to the federal coffers than it receives? It means more funds will be available for Ontario and other provinces which are feeling the effects of a recession in the US. I am glad to say as a Newfoundlander and a Canadian that I'm glad Newfoundland is in a position to do this. Our natural resources and those of Alberta and Saskatchewan WILL run out some day and I hope we have a province like Ontario to come to our assistance again. They've certainly helped this province over these many years. It IS what Confederation is all about - sharing! Some people seem to forget that.


Paul in BC
said

When the Federal Government told us all was well, guess what, we should not have believed them! Now we all pay the price for them putting their head in the sand and ignoring reality.


Livin' in Ont...
said

Why would I move out West? Sure I'll get a job, but I'll be living on the street as the price for housing has gotten astronomically high. I'd rather keep my job and my house here in Ontario, rather than move out West to live on the street sinve I can't find decent affordable housing for me and my family.


Shamaro
said

I find many of the economists are very careful with how they choose their words.

You will find them warning us ina nice way, with a smile. This would be one way not to shake consumer confidence, which is already a bit shakey.

All you have to do is see the trends on what is going on around you. Take a look on what's happening in the US. China and India are even beginning to slow down somewhat.

If it wasn't for the energy sector, Canada would be in much worse shape. However, things aren't going to slow down as quickly as they are globally, but they are going to slow.

The auto sector in Ontario, in fact all of manufacturing is going to be hit and hit very hard, this part is only the beginning.



Fear of the Liberals
said

Are people so naive to really believe that it is the economic policies of the current government are saving us?
These trends are not that short in nature folks. We have not even come close to feeling what the present government has done.
what is sad is that Mr. Harper is an economist and he should thoroughly understand this. Unfortunately he is not big enough to tell the truth.


ABOutcast
said

I live in the west...deep in the heart of redneck medicine hat...

there are jobs here but...

they are neo cons...

don't expect help... if you end up needing help, expect to be denigrated for it...

don't come if you are disabled AISH is a joke...there is no life here for you

don't come if you need day care...there is an extreme shortage of care for children and working women are still frowned upon by many here

don't come if you are a progressive thinker and can't learn to keep it to yourself...

say you believe in god (even if you don't) and attend church...

I should have done the last 2 things but didn't and I have never been fully accepted here...even after many years

It's a fine place to make money and live well if you are prepared to tow the line...






Doug BC
said

Any one who reads the paper or watches the news on TV should have expected problems at some point in time.I do not see a day when an exporting nation like Canada can insulate itself from the global economy.
What I do hope for,is a Canada with less debt and more co-operation between regions so that we are well positioned to weather the storm.I think it's the tough times that show who your friends are.If our leaders are really committed to a united Canada,this economic downturn should see them working together to improve efficiencies and productivity within Canada.
Rather than some kind of a spitting contest between regions,we should be celebrating the diversity of the country.A diverstity that sees one region able to help with a prosperous economy at a time when another region is not doing as well at all.This has to be preferable to having the whole country in a downturn at the same time.
Are we Canadians first,or are our loyalties with our own provice or region?? I expect we may find out soon.


Kudo
said

In 2003, when I was driving to work, I saw lots of BC license plates in Calgary. Recently I see lots of Ontario license plates here. People can say all the bad thing about Alberta, but when they can't find a job in their home town to pay bills, they know which place is better. Keep your eyes on BC, will follow Ontario very soon with its debt financing gov't budget.


Shane
said

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.



Yuri
said

An Economist from an investment bank. No wonder the "sky is falling." A drop of any investment for them means the end of the world. Look up, can you feel the weight of the whole sky on your shoulders?


Jv
said

Economics are often more about physchology, rather than fundementals.

I hope the media and economists are aware of self fulfilling prophecies - Canadians have been told to brace for the worst, and we do, and so slows consumer spending and the housing market which fuels more bad news stories for the media and the negative cycle begins.


Les And
said

Why are all these economists based in Ontario and give their so called national views based on the economy of one province?

The four western provinces are starving for labour in all sectors and are being held back from further economic advancements because of the labour shortage.

Come on folks, the Dominion of Canada does not end at the borders of Ont/Man.


Maggie B
said

Economists are like lawyers - everyone has a different opinion.

As long as there is a demand for raw materials - metals, oil and water - Canada will not experience the same pains as the USA. China and India will offset the demise of the manufacturing/auto industry.



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