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Canada's economic picture darkening: economist
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CTV.ca News Staff
Date: Tue. Jul. 29 2008 8:30 AM ET
Recent rounds of job cuts by major corporations suggest it's Canada's turn to experience some economic pain, a prominent economist said Tuesday.
"We've been a bit of an oasis in the global economy," Patricia Croft, chief economist at the investment bank Phillips, Hager and North, told CTV's Canada AM.
"We've been protected (from) many of the trends we're seeing in countries like the U.K., Spain, the United States and Ireland. We've been protected by the high price of energy, but now unfortunately, it's our turn."
Earlier this month, Statistics Canada reported an unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent. Most of the 39,000 jobs lost were based in Ontario, where high energy costs and a high Canadian dollar continue to take a toll on competitiveness in the manufacturing sector there.
"Canada actually shed jobs (in June)," Croft said, adding, "I think we can expect more of the same."
On Monday, Bell Canada Enterprises announced it would be shedding 2,500 jobs, and Air Canada flight attendants protested a company move to eliminate 600 of their jobs.
Croft said the job loss looks to be broad-based. For example, construction jobs actually declined in June -- the first time that has happened in two years.
"Housing markets are cooling across Canada," she said.
The high dollar is hurting tourism, high food and energy prices shake consumer confidence, and of course, corporations are restructuring, she said.
There's also a regional story: Ontario's unemployment rate is 6.7 per cent, which is above the national average.
However, in energy-rich Alberta, the employment to population ratio is at a record high, she said.
While Canada's economy is slowing, Croft said the country isn't in a recession.
"Canada's economy is a bastion of strength compared to what is happening globally," she said.
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I applaud the budget, even though Health Care and education may stay unscathed. Sadly this cannot last and I worry to later this year where cuts will become enviable. If anything, this provides the Wildrose Alliance plenty of ammo when an election is called.


Comments are now closed for this story
Chris
said
Collin
said
John from ON
said
NC
said
says Canada is next inline to hurt. But Canada is a bastion of strength compared to what is happening globally.
Are we hurting? or are we strong?
These economist are so confusing.
J.C.
said
Maybe then Ontario would not have so many lay-offs.
It is good to see that Canada is doing quite well on the Global Scale though. Let's hope it remains that way. I fear what may happen if Dion is elected and his "Green Shift Plan" takes effect.
G
said
Poor and uncompetetive manufacturing jobs will not have a comeback.
That said Toyota is expanding...nothing poor or uncompetetive there...makes you wonder...
Sask Man
said
Come west, we need good people on our farms and cities here in Saskatchewan.
ken wheelans
said
Rob O
said
Al Wood
said
This Economist is saying as a country we will feel some of the global economic pain. Which is understandable given the close economic ties that exist world wide between trading partners. Our largest being the US and the news has reported all the problems they are having. So this economic pain is to be expected.
This Economist also says the Canadian economy "is a bastion of strength compared to what is happening globally". This tells me our Federal Government has done all the right things to ensure the global economic slowdown has been tempered for Canada.
Steve
said
ron
said
dk
said
There's alot of people in Windsor looking for jobs. It's a great place to find some spare labour.
Dennis L. Krahn
said
Obviously she has looked at the global picture and come up with what looks like a fairly accurate assessment of the Canadian economy.
pp
said
I think we are going to be in for quite a rough ride in the next year and a half though. I don't think we will be as bad as the US or Europe but I think Canada will be in for one rough ride :(
Trent
said
business grad
said
If you tell people we are in a downturn, they stop spending and we are in a downturn.
Dude from the Maritimes
said
I am from Nova Scotia and live on PEI and have nothing bad to say about Alberta. Many people I know have gone to Alberta to work have nothing bad to say about it either.
It seems like you would like us to be jealous or upset by your economy.
Guess what, we're all in this together from Coast to Coast to Coast.
Eileen25
said
Skite in AB
said
- Toby Keith
A Real IT Manager From Calgary
said
Alberta is probably singly responsible for a couple of percentage drops in the unemployment rate in the Maritime provinces.
Wayne
said
Ceteris Paribus
said
Productivity determines wealth which is linked to our standard of living.
If we cannot maintain constant productivity growth our wealth relative to the US and much of the rest of the world will decline and we will be outbid for all the goods we need to maintain our quality of life.
If we are going to hew wood and draw water, we need to learn to do it better. So far the results have been dismal.
Pat_Pending
said
After just two years, he has driven the economy into the dumper, increased government spending to unheard of levels and put the finances of the country back into a deficit. Imagine the economic nightmare he could have unleashed if he had a majority? The horror...the horror.
Nick T
said
Rob
said
Why is it you good folks in Alberta always pit yourself against the east and mostly Ontario?
It's that divisive attitude that causes neocon stereotypes in the first place! If Ontario (the engine of this country) is feeling the pain, so too
will oil rich Alberta eventually! We are all Canadian, and when one province feels economic woes , as we do in Ontario, it is up to the other provinces to pitch in and help out. It may be time for other parts of Canada to help bail out Ontario( for once!), like we have for ALL other Canadian provinces including precious Alberta! The good news is that Ontario has a diversified economy, so we will keep chugging along, but can Alberta say the same? Ontario has always been the might of this country and never rubs it in the face of the other provinces that have an inferior complex! Grow up Collin, you may live in Alberta, but it's just a fraction of what makes this country so great!
softwareprogrammer
said
Chris
said
Rod
said
Its a good thing the gas tank is full because it seem the engine (Ontario) is missing a bit and is in need of a tune - up. lol
Roger T
said
WE ARE IN A RECESSION AND THERE IS NO DENYING IT ANYMORE! WAKE UP!
Nancy
said
Alberta is booming, Saskatchewan is boooming, New Foundland is Booming, British Columbia is doing just fine, Nova Scotis is doing fine.
The only economic lump is Ontario, and it is do to poor Prvinical Management by a Premier who will not change his disaterous policies.
The Green Shift Threat is stopping Airlines from investing.
The Dump Dion Movement in Guelph would mean a change in Liberal leadership and quit scaring buiness away.
Greg
said
janet
said
A Real IT Manager From Calgary
said
As to those whining about Alberta's energy exports driving up the Canadian dollar, if Ontario's manufacturers need a 60 cent dollar to compete with the US, then it's time for Ontario to tighten its belt and improve productivity. Alberta tightened its belt in the early 90's big time.
And a rebuttal to Rob, just by saying that Ontario has always been the might of the country, I would call that 'rubbing it in'.
dean
said
The housing markets continues to grow despite talk of it cooling down across the rest of the country. And with several major developments coming up in the next few years it should just get better. Seems to me that if Ont. or Que. are doing bad the whole country is in trouble according to economists. The east and west ends of the country I think are doing great. Thats just my opinion whether it be right or wrong.
Brian Mallard
said
Paul in BC
said
Livin' in Ont...
said
Shamaro
said
You will find them warning us ina nice way, with a smile. This would be one way not to shake consumer confidence, which is already a bit shakey.
All you have to do is see the trends on what is going on around you. Take a look on what's happening in the US. China and India are even beginning to slow down somewhat.
If it wasn't for the energy sector, Canada would be in much worse shape. However, things aren't going to slow down as quickly as they are globally, but they are going to slow.
The auto sector in Ontario, in fact all of manufacturing is going to be hit and hit very hard, this part is only the beginning.
Fear of the Liberals
said
These trends are not that short in nature folks. We have not even come close to feeling what the present government has done.
what is sad is that Mr. Harper is an economist and he should thoroughly understand this. Unfortunately he is not big enough to tell the truth.
ABOutcast
said
there are jobs here but...
they are neo cons...
don't expect help... if you end up needing help, expect to be denigrated for it...
don't come if you are disabled AISH is a joke...there is no life here for you
don't come if you need day care...there is an extreme shortage of care for children and working women are still frowned upon by many here
don't come if you are a progressive thinker and can't learn to keep it to yourself...
say you believe in god (even if you don't) and attend church...
I should have done the last 2 things but didn't and I have never been fully accepted here...even after many years
It's a fine place to make money and live well if you are prepared to tow the line...
Doug BC
said
What I do hope for,is a Canada with less debt and more co-operation between regions so that we are well positioned to weather the storm.I think it's the tough times that show who your friends are.If our leaders are really committed to a united Canada,this economic downturn should see them working together to improve efficiencies and productivity within Canada.
Rather than some kind of a spitting contest between regions,we should be celebrating the diversity of the country.A diverstity that sees one region able to help with a prosperous economy at a time when another region is not doing as well at all.This has to be preferable to having the whole country in a downturn at the same time.
Are we Canadians first,or are our loyalties with our own provice or region?? I expect we may find out soon.
Kudo
said
Shane
said
Yuri
said
Jv
said
I hope the media and economists are aware of self fulfilling prophecies - Canadians have been told to brace for the worst, and we do, and so slows consumer spending and the housing market which fuels more bad news stories for the media and the negative cycle begins.
Les And
said
The four western provinces are starving for labour in all sectors and are being held back from further economic advancements because of the labour shortage.
Come on folks, the Dominion of Canada does not end at the borders of Ont/Man.
Maggie B
said
As long as there is a demand for raw materials - metals, oil and water - Canada will not experience the same pains as the USA. China and India will offset the demise of the manufacturing/auto industry.