OTTAWA — Environment Minister John Baird is poised to announce a national program offering drivers incentives to ditch older, polluting vehicles.

Environment Canada last month sent an email -- obtained by The Canadian Press -- to several so-called vehicle "scrappage'' programs letting them know an announcement from Baird was forthcoming.

"Many of you have contacted me in the last couple of weeks wondering about the status of the national vehicle scrappage program,'' said the email, sent Jan. 21.

"We anticipate that Minister Baird will make an announcement about the new program within the next few weeks.''

Environment Canada has been mulling over the prospect of creating a national program since last year's budget earmarked $36 million over two years for scrapping initiatives.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's third budget, delivered this week, made no mention of extending that funding beyond 2009, triggering speculation within the industry over the fate of federal scrappage cash.

Seven groups across the country currently receive federal money to run a patchwork of scrapping programs, which offer incentives such as rebates on new vehicles, free transit passes and charitable receipts in exchange for older cars.

The programs turn the vehicles over to scrap yards, which crush and recycle them according to provincial regulations.

Environment Canada consulted environmental groups, scrappage organizations and other stakeholders last year to study the possibility of creating a national program.

Tammy Hildebrand of the Manitoba Lung Association, which runs a Winnipeg-based scrappage program called Bye Bye Beaters, said she met with the department last June to discuss options for a national plan.

Hildebrand said the department told her last December it would be making an announcement about the national program, but it didn't elaborate.

Baird's office was mum Thursday when asked about the new program, while Environment Canada didn't return calls.

"When we are ready to make an announcement, we will let you know,'' wrote Eric Richer, Baird's press secretary, in an email to The Canadian Press.

Industry groups speculated Thursday about the form the new national program might take. Scott Gillard, co-ordinator of the Halifax-based Ecology Action Centre's Steer Clean program, which receives federal funding, offered three scenarios:

• Environment Canada sets up its own national program;
• The federal government chooses a single organization, possibly through a bidding process, to run the program;
• The regional programs continue to operate under the umbrella of the federal government.

Gillard said it's most likely Environment Canada will announce a program that allows the regional groups to operate relatively autonomously under a national banner.

But he cautioned against any new program interfering too much with the regional groups.

"We like Steer Clean as it is. So if we're able to continue operating this program that Nova Scotians clearly like, then that's great,'' Gillard said.

"But if it comes down to us having to offer a vehicle purchase incentive because that's what the national program consists of, then the Ecology Action Centre will not be operating that program.''

The government estimates five million vehicles from 1995 or earlier -- predating today's tougher emissions standards -- were on the roads last year. Although these older vehicles make up only a fraction of the estimated 18 million vehicles in Canada, they account for up to two-thirds of the pollution that causes smog.

And the older the model, the more smog-causing emissions it tends to spew into the air, said Mark Natais, president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association.

He estimates models from 1987 or earlier could release 37 times more emissions than a brand-new vehicle.

"I think it's essential that we have something which takes this thing right across the country in a national context,'' he said.

"The question is, how can we best structure that to comprehend that we have some regional programs already underway.''