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Clinton victory reignites race to White House

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CTV News: Tom Clark with the startling turnaround
CTV News: Joy Malbon explains Clinton's comeback
Mike Duffy Live: A discussion on the N.H. comebacks
CTV Newsnet: Stephen Newman, York University
Canada AM: Allan J. Lichtman, presidential historian

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Wed. Jan. 9 2008 7:10 PM ET

Hillary Clinton's narrow but stunning upset victory over Barack Obama in the Democratic New Hampshire primary Tuesday has shaken up the race to the White House.

On Wednesday, Clinton's camp said the win has revived its fundraising campaign, which has raised more than US$750,000 since her late night win. But Obama also bounced back, with two major union endorsements that many political pundits say will likely help him win the Nevada caucuses on January 19.

The New Hampshire results will also lead to a competitive race in South Carolina a week later. Unlike New Hampshire, the state has a large African-American population, which could change the dynamics of the race for the leadership of the Democratic Party.

But African-American votes will not necessarily go to Obama because he's a black candidate, says Peter Beinhart of The New Republic.

"The Clintons have enormous reservoirs of support in the black community," Beinhart told CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live.

"Remember Toni Morrison, the African-American novelist, famously called Bill Clinton America's first black president. (The Clintons) have a very deep and long history with the African-American community."

Beinhart said the New Hampshire win has revived what many had predicted was a dying Clinton campaign.

Clinton's victory in the Granite State could lead to a long Democratic leadership race, says a U.S. presidential historian.

"This could go all the way to South Dakota in June," Allan Lichtman told Canada AM on Tuesday.

Polls before Tuesday's vote gave Obama, winner of last week's Iowa caucuses, a lead of up to 13 points over Clinton, who finished third in that contest.

In New Hampshire, Clinton, a New York senator, emerged with 39 per cent of the vote. Obama captured 37 per cent, and former North Carolina senator John Edwards captured about 17 per cent.

Lichtman said Clinton won on the strength of her support among women voters.

"The women came home," he said. "Hillary Clinton yesterday made history by becoming the first woman in American history to win a major party primary, and she did it with the women.

"She was 12 points ahead or so among women voters, 11 points behind among male voters, and therein lies her victory."

Lichtman, who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C., said primaries are notoriously difficult to poll accurately, and there may have been a late surge after Clinton showed a more human side on Monday.

At a campaign event in Portsmouth, she was asked how she kept going. Clinton declared -- with her eyes welling up and voice breaking -- that this race "is very personal for me. It's not just political.

"Some of us put ourselves out there and do this against some pretty difficult odds and we do it, each one of us, because we care about our country," she said. "But some of us are right and some of us are wrong. Some of us are ready and some of us are not."

Lichtman said if Clinton shows herself as a real person and not as an "ice lady," she will be a formidable candidate in the primaries to come.

He thinks it has now become a two-candidate race between Clinton and Obama, the rookie senator from Illinois.

While there have been arguments about whether he's helped or hurt his wife's campaign, Lichtman said Bill Clinton -- the two-term Democratic president -- is the outstanding Democratic politician of these times.

"Never underestimate the persuasive power of Bill Clinton," he said.

Obama drew huge crowds in New Hampshire, but he didn't achieve the same degree of dominance among young voters there that he did in Iowa, according to an Associated Press analysis.

In New Hampshire, undeclared voters could vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries, and huge numbers of them voted for Arizona Sen. John McCain, which means they couldn't vote for Obama.

While Obama did well among independents, Clinton did slightly better with New Hampshire's independents than she did with the ones in Iowa.

Clinton also benefited more from "late deciders" in New Hampshire than she did in Iowa.

After Nevada and South Carolina, all of the campaigns will gear up for what's being called "Tsunami Tuesday," the day that voters in more than 20 states will go to primary polls.

The Republicans

McCain -- whose campaign seemed moribund during the summer of 2007 -- didn't put much effort into Iowa, but did pull out the stops in New Hampshire, where he won the 2000 primary.

On Tuesday night, the 71-year-old captured 37 per cent of the vote. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney was second with 32 per cent. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee -- the Iowa winner -- was third with 11 per cent and former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani came in fourth with nine per cent.

Beinhart said that a seemingly improving situation in Iraq and the fact that the immigration debate "has cooled a little bit" helped McCain's campaign.

Lichtman noted that the Republican race is still just as unpredictable as the Democratic one.

"Let's not again make the mistake that one swallow makes the spring," he said. "How well is McCain going to play in the South? He could even lose to (Mitt) Romney in Michigan (on Jan. 15)."

Huckabee, a Baptist minister, won in Iowa where there was three times the number of evangelical voters as in New Hampshire, AP said.

While McCain did very well among independents in New Hampshire, independents can't vote in the Republican primary in South Carolina. McCain lost there to George Bush in 2000.

South Carolina's primary is on Jan. 19, with Florida following on Jan. 29.

Giuliani plans to focus on Florida, while former senator and "Law and Order" star Fred Thompson is focusing on South Carolina. Both men barely campaigned in New Hampshire.

The Republicans will also have a Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

With files from The Associated Press

Please Add Comments( )

Earl Robert
said
0 0

Clinton's "defining moment on Monday" reminds me of when she said that she would "stand by her man". As sad as it is, people swallow it up. It makes me sick.


Laura Reid
said
0 0

Good for you Hillary. Keep it up all the way to Washington.


Shamaro
said
0 0

Who would you think would make a good President? To tell you the truth, the U.S. needs reform from top to bottom within the federal government, maybe they should take a page out Canada's book on how to balance your budget and increase your surplus. Maybe they should hire a few of Chretien and Harpers cabinets who have sat or are already sitting to show them how to govern a nation and how to get your priorities straight.


Gary
said
0 0

Judging by all the previous comments regarding the NH primaries, you Canadians seem to have more interest in our electoral proccess then your own. How definitivly Canadian of you.


Prowlax (Ottawa)
said
0 0

I can't say that I am surprised by the effectiveness of the crocodile tears tactics used by Clinton to con the New Hampshire residents. Seems a lot of U.S. folk can't recognize BS when they hear it. Case in point: they elected Dubya twice!!


Jeanne
said
0 0

Way to go Hillary!!! I knew you could do it. Now on to the next. It will be absolutely great to have a WOMAN as President of the United States!!!!!




Lillian
said
0 0

Hillary used the oldest trick in the book and it worked. Her tears did it. Now is that an indication of a strong leader for the most powerful nation in the world? Wake up voters in the USA!


Keith
said
0 0

Apparently, Gary, we are also more interested than our American friends in topics such as logic and correct spelling.

An interest in American politics does not indicate a disinterest in our own. And the word is spelled "definitively" not "definitivly".



Dan Ireland
said
0 0

What really is disturbing to me is that of all the people in the good old USA. These are the only people that you have for president of your country?
After the time with Bush, it seems that you Americans are just so hard up for anyone to take over.
If Hillary wins... I wonder if S.Harper will start wearing a skirt???
Good luck!


eastduchess
said
0 0

I'm so pleased for Hillary in her win in NH.

What is it about an intelligent, eloquent, gifted woman that scares the pants off the American male?

I was asked at a social funtion in the U.S. what I thought of Hillary. Upon expressing my admiration for her, I had a screaming, red-faced, insane-looking man scaring the living daylights out of me. If he didn't want my opinion, why would he ask in the first place?

For Hillary, "GO GIRL!"


Jason.
said
0 0

Oh Gary ... We are allowed to engage in this type of conversation just like most of us have done with previous news...

Now to come back on topic, hurray for Hillary, she may just do the same mistake her hubby did back in the days.

Boy am I glad I'm Canadian!!!


Wanda
said
0 0

At least we show an interest in events outside our own borders . . .


Robert
said
0 0

Canada has enough troubles of its own to judge what is going on in the U.S. Perhaps if we want to take an interest we should think about what candidate would be the best President for Canada.

The results from last night are making for an interesting race in both camps.


sam
said
0 0

To Gary - It's not that we have more interest in the U.S. electoral process, it's because we like to be informed. canadians know a lot more about U.S. politics than Americans know about Canadian.


edward
said
0 0

I am curious if the Canadian news media will be airing any other stories in the next nine or ten months besides the up-coming U.S. election


J-F (Ottawa)
said
0 0

To Gary:

Perhaps our interest in your elections is proof that Canadians have views and knowledge on issues other then what is happening in our own towns.



sheri
said
0 0

Waves her Canadian flag proudly!


Joyce d'Entremont
said
0 0

Earl Roberts sounds misogynistic. I think Hillary is the most intelligent Democrat, has experience, and has the best policies in general, of both parties.


Matt
said
0 0

McCain is a good guy, with great ethics and integrity, which is will help build confidence in elected officials.
I'm glad he won.
I'm not sure who's the better choice between Obama and Clinton. One is new an inexperienced, the other is a real politician. I don't even think she knows where she'll stand on the issues come election time.


Roch
said
0 0

Bill Clinton's passionate speech seems to have turned the tables on Obama.

He remains a popular ex-President.


Bob
said
0 0

Could it be that the Republicans for the time being are glad to see Hillary win NH? I would suggest the tidal wave mania has now being edged off both Obama and Hillary, Hillary winning NH and Obama winning Iowa, and its shown the American public is not overall tremendously excited about either of the two democrats....I contend it will make it a little bit more easier for the Republicans in the general election.


jay
said
0 0

:) Way to go Hillary>
Now all the way to the White House.
Just wondering who will be the first man LOL




Andrew
said
0 0

I really hope that this is the last primary that Hillary wins. As a Canadian I hope desperately that Obama can pull it out. He's a person I can see as president inspiring people across the world. A president makes his people better. That's Barack Obama


Politics? Bah Humbug!
said
0 0

LOL ! too Funny! Go Hillary! Firstly ...The Clinton era was definitely better then the good ole' Bush days....

Secondly, lolol, but Canadians have a better choice with the Liberals and the Conservatives!?!?! HA! Canadians are in the same boat..same politicians, differents political names...maybe the U.S. can really shake it up this time and MAYBE Canadians (as usual) will follow suit! Politics in the Western World need a shake up! Governments work for the people! not the other way around...and we have a long long way to go before either of our countries can repair the damage our current politicians have caused..blah blah blah...yeah economy great...Judge a nation based on how it treats its needy people...and right now...we are ALL failing..


B. Gray
said
0 0

Well I think Hillary's win last night opens the race all up again. It was funny that people were already writing her off as whining after loosing a single state. *Even incumbent Presidents don't always win every state.

Now to Shamaro, I am not sure why you think taking Chrétien & Harper's cabinets are the model that the US should live by. I'm not saying theirs' is better, but I am not sure our system is either. Canada's surplus is being driven by record Oil profits, and our very high income & personal tax levels. If the US began to levy a 50% tax on all their citizens, then they too could have a record surplus. It's a fine line between good governing and extortion. =)



Gary
said
0 0

lol. Seems I've struck a nerve with a few of you with a simple observation of the facts...so much so that I am maligned for little else then my poor spelling. Could that be that famous Canadian insecurity issue over it's identity rearing it's ugly head?
Don't blame me if you need to look south all the time for acceptance. We love ya nevertheless, now go to your room :)
Gary, NJ

PS could someone edit my script for spelling and punctuation please:). I can just see thge response I'm gonna get over this should it get posted. All in good humour friends to the north


Chris
said
0 0

The reason informed and educated Canadians (there are a few), are more interested in American politics, is because they know that whoever is in the White House is far more important to Canadians' standard of living, security and future, than who is in Sussex Drive. Ottawa is a small sideshow.


Vahan
said
0 0

Now I see why Kim Campbell never got so far as prime minister of Canada. She didn't turn on the waterworks when things got rough. What a shameful display. What will happen if Clinton is elected and the situation around the world deteriorates, will Clinton curl up in a ball on her couch and stuff her face with ice-cream?


Ed
said
0 0

Of course Americans don't know anything about Canadian politics. It is like asking an American who does not live in Alabama what the politics in Alabama are. Canada has less political influence than the state of California. It is not that Canadians know more about the US it is a case of Canada not being interesting or having any influential power.


david
said
0 0

I wish Barack Obama would realize this is 2008 and not 1968. He seems to be milking off the legacy of great orators like Martin Luther King and JFK. How does he plan to fix the American economy, dollar depletion, decline if middle class America, mortgage crisis and the war? These are the real issues and ones that cannot be solved on a 1 hour episode of the Oprah Winfrey show. Action is what's needed not flowery speeches inspired from men of the past.


Anne
said
0 0

The US being a tarnished super power, this planet requires a complete change in the kind of person who will be President. B. Obama is that person. H. Clinton is still part of the old guard. She was cleverly opportunistic in becoming a NY Senator, and it continues as she makes a run for the White House. As someone who strikes me as being very calculated in her actions, that "tender" moment everyone is talking about was well orchestrated.


J-F (Ottawa)
said
0 0

To Gary:

Thank you for visiting and commenting on our Canadian CTV news site. It seems you have quite the Canadian interest yourself.


Lori
said
0 0

I have always somewhat pitied our neighbours to the south. They don't realize that in reality, they are as much under pseudo-communist rule as the North Koreans are under pure communist rule. Over the generations, they have been convinced by their governments to look no farther than their own country for anything. For whatever reason, the rest of the world has allowed the feeling of superiority to fester...example...they can use the mighty US greenback anywhere. That's so curious since every country has it's own currency and they all have to buy US bucks if going to the US...we all just contributed to the arrogance of the poor Americans...thinking they have what we all must want (or need). Thank God I'm a Canuck. We have our faults but at least we recognize them.


Chris
said
0 0

Eastduchess asks "What is it about an intelligent, eloquent, gifted woman that scares the pants off the American male?"

I don't know what scares the American male, but what scares me (a Canadian male) is her protectionist streak.

If you think Canada's manufacturing industries are having a tough time now with the high dollar, just wait until the new President Clinton starts "re-negotiating" the NAFTA agreement.

Scary things could definitely happen if a protectionist wins that election.


Allan Eizinas
said
0 0

She cries best who cries last!

To be president you have to learn to fake sincerity.

She has a good chance.



Jacqueline
said
0 0

I dont like the Clintons (Lies/Blackwater) and Obama is a rookie senator, too green for the White House. I hope McCain is successful in his bid for presendency.


Peter (Montreal)
said
0 0

Gary, I'm embarrassed for you that you've turned a simple political comments page into an excuse to turn "Canadian" into a bad word.
It certainly helps us to keep believing "American" can be a very bad word indeed.


Gail
said
0 0

I just hope the Americans will elect the "Best" person for the most important job in the world. Colour and gender shouldn't even be in the equation.
Does anyone even know what they're policies are? Canadians should care about who wins if we want to maintain a strong standard of living.


JAY
said
0 0

LOL Gary your elections are more interesting then the ones here. All I can say is it's finally
NO MORE BUSH!! I really think he hurt the American people and thank god he will never get the chance in office again. What a mess he has caused.


Robert
said
0 0

Gary:
While we observe and comment, at least the Canadian Ambassador to the United States won't publicly state that one of your candidates should 'watch his mouth.'

We observe, we don't participate or attempt to manipulate the results, unlike your government's involvement in elections in other countries.


Sunny Day - Not S.A.D.
said
0 0

At least the Canadian rolling polls fall within the margin of error +-3%

Also, we don't have to register our affiliation prior to casting ballots given that there are 5 plus parties depending on riding(district)at the National level.

I guess the religious folk didn't roll out for the Huckster... don't shed a tear for me


Cayt
said
0 0

Whether it's a Woman or an African American in the Whitehouse, the U.S.A. needs a good closet cleaning. As a Canadian I'm following this election closely. My daughter and grandson live in California. The results WILL effect the Canadian people! Who let that idiot Bush get in for a 2nd term anyway?????

And Gary from New Jersey, you really should use a dictionary and check your facts. We're pretty sophisticated up here. All in good humour of course.


M-J
said
0 0

Lillian- I don't think her tears worked at all.Look at the numbers. She didn't win by any landslide, Obama was nipping at her heels.
Also, New Hampshire a few weeks ago, was poised to sweep her into #1.Doesn't look that way to me


Agent SPEED
said
0 0

TO Gary:

It's because we actually take interest in the world affairs. Our intelligence gives us the ability to be knowledgeable and our minds are curious and accepting.

Aside from that, we are also properly educated.


Gaetan Perreault
said
0 0

To Gary NJ
You struck a nerve because you must be the only American who reads Canadian news. No wonder we went at you.

Gates


Bryan (Saskatchewan)
said
0 0

While I understand the importance of having either a black or a woman as President, I only hope that they are elected on the basis that they would make the better president, not solely that they would be the first black or woman president. A country like the United States needs a good leader. May the best man (or woman) win!


Scott M
said
0 0

Keith your comment to Gary is telling of our Canadian smugness.

The comments from Gary are relevant. We Canadians are always self-righteous about the USA but I wonder how we would feel if the US scrutinized our elections
and political process!



Eric
said
0 0

I'm following the comments more than the actual stories here and I have to say I see a disturbing trend. People seem more focused on the fact that Obama is black, and that Hillary is a woman than their actual platforms. Lots of "PEOPLE WON'T VOTE FOR OBAMA BECAUSE THEY'RE RACISTS!" (not so much in this story, but other comment threads) or how people are promoting Clinton simply because she's a woman.

Does anyone else find this a little offputting? People like that condemn others for not voting for someone based on their gender or color of their skin, but will look at those exact same qualities when -they- decide to promote a candidate. Preach their policies, not their physical characteristics. Voting for Clinton as a 'step forward for women everywhere' and no other reason is a step back for Democracy.


Matt
said
0 0

Canadian and US politics are very different.

Liberals and Conservatives aren't the same as the Democrats and Republicans. Canadian politics is generally more left leaning and the parties reflect that.

Look at the platforms, look at the actual laws they pass.


Lart from Above
said
0 0

At least Canadians know that the United States has a President, not a Prime Minister. That's more than Barack Obama knows about Canada. Like most people in most countries around the world, Canadians are interested in the politics of their immediate neighbors.

Republican policy seems to be paranoid pre-emptive war in the Middle East, xenophobic immigration policies, incompetent government finance with huge deficits, and inattention to trade disputes. Bill Clinton was a hundred times better for Canada than George II Bush, and any future Democratic president would similarly be better for Canada.

Anyway, things have been slow on Parliament Hill lately. As soon as confidence votes come close, Duffy will start stirring the pot and the bloggers will talk about Harper and Dion again.


Darren Alexander
said
0 0

Gary, you're totally right. And BTW, Canadians don't seem to understand that Republican administrations are far more favourable to Canada-US Trade than the protectionist, anti-growth Dems.
It's going to be very interesting going down the stretch. It's only the second week of January. I think the eventual GOP candidate vs the Dem one is going to look good. Giuiliani and McCain will be running mates I think. Lots of experience there. Not much on the Dem side.


Dabny
said
0 0

B Gray,

Our tax levels reflect the services that are provided in the social democratic model we've adopted. The levies provide the components of our social safety net whereas the US is running deficits/debts because they are overspending on military issues while being adverse to paying any taxes.

To Gary,

Our fascination with US politics is akin to being perversely curious about Britney Spears. Both are train wrecks that are interesting to watch.


kt
said
0 0

At a family dinner there are two subjects that are taboo - religion and politics (so they say). Hence the few heat waves above. If Americans weren't interested in Canadian news and politics, because let's face it - American politics influences Canadian politics, and vice versa - there would be no Americans surfing a Canadian News Network like CTV. Politics (in any country) tends to be a contentious issue because no opinions can be proved, only supported, and no one person has all the facts. Foreign politics provides insights into how countries should or should not be run, and provides stimulus for a nation and their political leaders. If foreign politics was of no concern, neither of our countries would have had the inclination to travel overseas and rehabilitate a democratic political force. Of course Canadians are interested in studying American politics. One reason may be that it is actually a much more democratic system of voting in a President than we currently have here for our Prime Minister. Unfortunately in Ontario, our recent referendum on Mixed Member Proportional representation was defeated (likley due to ignorance and comfort with the familiar)– but without consultation of other systems, an opportunity to vote for a more democratic system of election would not have presented itself.

As to Hillary’s tears, crocodile or not – no one can know. However it is a fact that upon identical emotional stimuli, the female had a predisposed biological response to differently receive and process the message, as well as create tears, and this response is quite often physiologically uncontrollable. To behave otherwise requires training, which often authoritative females have practiced - but still. It is the spin society has placed on this emotional demonstration that leads us to believe Hillary is a “softie”, when really any other candidate may feel the same. Personally though, perhaps unfortunately, due to the global stigma of the female tendencies and Hillary’s tendency to giggle inappropriately, as well as Obama’s charismatic and composed nature, I believe Obama would be better able to positively influence Global policies. I may or may not be right – but that is my opinion.


Lart from Above
said
0 0

Kim Campbell lost in 1993 because Canadians blamed the Conservatives for Mulroney's unpopular policies. Not because Campbell was a woman.

I don't think voters either care or mind very much when a politician shows an ordinary human emotion. Sometimes the voters are smarter than the bloggers.


Laura
said
0 0

After living thirty-six years in Canada I am even more astonished now at the obsession Canadians have with the United States. I have yet to see the same passion or interest in Canadian elections. Are these opinions and comments truly based on facts and knowledge of the United States of America or are they based on hatred? I urge Canadians to read the CFRB radio broadcast "Let's be Personal" by Gordon Sinclair titled "The Americans", June 5, 1973. His words saved me from leaving Canada. He helped me to see and understand an intelligent and positive side to this nation.


Jeff S.
said
0 0

The fact that Hillary cried like a little girl on TV and then a wave of women flocked to vote for her the next day is very troubling.

It goes to show what lengths of manipulation she will attempt to become the next U.S. President.

I would suggest that she was able to make herself cry so easily because of the pummelling she took from Obama in Iowa last week. For the first time, she realized that 8 years of campaigning might not garner that which she feels entitled to and she broke down. That she could use this emotion to make women voters feel sorry for her and then win their votes should give everyone a taste of her true style.

Imagine if it was Romney or Edwards that became emotional after a loss and cried on TV the next day! Either one would have sunk any chance they had at winning because the electorate would have seen how they can crack under pressure. But because Hillary is a woman, she gets the sympathy of the voters and the media.

It is this kind of sexist, double standard that should make a lot of U.S. men wary of voting for Mrs. Clinton.


Butters Leopold Scotch
said
0 0

I think the real question here is what the heck kind of name is "Barack Obama"? Or "Mitt" Romney? Or Mike "Huckabee"? Obama... Osama, waaay too close for comfort. Mitt is not a name, it's a thing... president Arby's Oven Mitt, I don't think so. "Huckaby"? I can see the Presidential banjo already.

Hillary? She's the devil, plain and simple.

Whatever happens, they'll be handing some A+ material to the writers of The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. Is that really what America wants... more overpaid Hollywood writers getting a free ride? I think not.


Lance
said
0 0

America's only hope is Ron Paul.

He's the only one that can save the US from the disaster that it's in.


dave
said
0 0

As far as Canadian interest in American politics is concerned it brings to mind Trudeau's comment about being next to the United States is akin to sleeping with an elephant....no matter how friendly the beast you are affected by it's every twitch and murmur.....Could it be that our interest is more concerned with who is leading that elephant ?


Joe Jackson
said
0 0

VOTE FRAUD CONFIRMED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY!!!

go to ronpaulwarroom dot com

Does anyone know what a Diebold Voting Machine is???

Anyone know Greg Palast (a real journalist)??? -- He exposed vote fraud in 2004 Presidential Elections


Sam
said
0 0

Even though it is somewhat entertaining, I find the Canadian News obsession with American Politics disconcerting. I am bored to the extent of turning to the sitcoms. Please, give it the credit it deserves in our country as it would get in theirs, 3rd page at best.



Kevin
said
0 0

Ron Paul is the United States only hope.


Art
said
0 0

She's getting the woman's vote. However that tells you a little about American women. Apparently they support a woman that supports her cheating husband on ( many occasions ) to be president . They talk about religion and family etc. in the U.S. meanwhile they want a president like this , boy they're wacky !


DAVID
said
0 0

How can Barack Obama pretend to speak on behalf of black America? His ancestors were not slaves, they are black muslims of the Islamic tradition from Kenya, Africa. His family still practices Islam today in Africa. How is he relevant to black America? Oprah Winfrey has the credentials given her historical afro-american roots to run for president (based on the black american experience being the platform)Obama using civil right's themes as his personal drama..is nothing more than a fairy-tale.


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