After coming close in 1999 and 2003, this appears to be the year the Saskatchewan Party pushes the NDP from power in a provincial election.

Two polls released publicly indicate the mildly centre-right party has a substantial lead over the mildly centre-left party that has ruled Saskatchewan since 1991 -- with Lorne Calvert as party leader and premier since 2001.

However, 'mild' is the operative word when describing the two parties' ideological differences.

"There's a bit of polarization, but it's tactical more than ideological, like: 'Who's going to look after my interests better?'" Ken Rasmussen, a University of Regina political scientist, told CTV.ca.

About 15 seats are in play in urban Saskatchewan, and both the main contenders are trying to reach those voters in time for the Nov. 7 election, he said.

The Saskatchewan Party is likely to pick up seven or eight seats in the wealthier suburbs of Regina and Saskatoon. With the NDP unlikely to make gains in rural Saskatchewan, that's enough to change the government, Rasmussen said.

If Saskatchewanians do change their government, they will do so at a time of almost unparalleled prosperity in the prairie province.

The province is raking in the bucks from the same energy boom that has lifted Alberta's economy to dizzying heights.

Prices are good for major commodities like uranium and potash. Even agriculture, long a depressed part of the economy, is seeing buoyant prices for grains and oilseeds.

But the NDP has a problem, Rasmussen said: People are tired of them.

This has happened before. The 11-year-old government of NDP Premier Allan Blakeney got swept out of office in 1982 by a Progressive Conservative tidal wave.

A brash young agricultural economist named Grant Devine led the Tories to victory, telling the province, "there's so much more we can be" -- and turning the NDP's "tried and trusted" slogan into "tired and rusted."

This time, the Saskatchewan Party is led by Brad Wall, who took over in 2004 but who has been involved in conservative provincial politics for much of his life. For much of the campaign, he's been calling the current NDP government "tired and old."

Fear factor

While the Saskatchewan Party can offer fresh faces, it made itself look "scary" in 2003 when then-leader Elwin Hermanson -- a one-time federal Reform Party MP -- refused to promise his party wouldn't privatize Crown corporations. The NDP clung to power with a two-seat margin, taking 30 of 58 seats.

Wall, 41, has stressed that no wholesale privatizations will take place under his leadership -- and has attacked the NDP for fear-mongering.

In one pre-election ad filmed at a football practice, Wall calmly tells the camera: "They might say anything ... maybe that I'm a secret Calgary Stampeders fan."

Over at the NDP's website, they don't accuse Wall of being a Stampeders fan, which if true, would be political death in the Saskatchewan Roughriders-mad province. But you can see a graphic there labelled "The same old Sask Party." An image shows a wolf in sheep's clothing -- with a red 'no' line superimposed.

"What lies behind the friendly new image?" the NDP asks, urging people to say 'no' to the Sask Party's "hidden agenda."

The NDP talks up the Saskatchewan Party's inexperience and "recklessness," and calls its opponent an apologist for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Calvert got into a fight with the feds over equalization earlier this year.

However, scrapping with Ottawa and trying to link Wall and the Saskatchewan Party to the bad memories of the Devine years don't appear to be paying dividends.

"It's all they've got left," Rasmussen said of the NDP's campaign, adding that it worked in 2003.

Neither the NDP nor the Sask Party are wasting any time attacking the Liberals. Party Leader David Karwacki has the unenviable task of trying to capture attention in a province that often splits between a left and right-wing choice.

Karwacki's party got shut out in 2003. If the polls are correct, that might happen again on Wednesday. If Karwacki doesn't win his own seat this time, he's likely done as leader, Rasmussen said.

Fighting for the centre

While the province has historically been split between left and right, the ideological distances on policies have never been smaller as the three main parties fight for the centre.

The two main contenders are using the province's current prosperity as an opportunity to make spending promises. The NDP has promised to cap drug subscription costs at $15. The Sask Party promises farm families they will save thousands on education property tax.

Calvert in turn has talked about property tax relief for everyone -- including renters. (As an FYI, the NDP is strongest in cities.)

"This a low-key, non-ideological election," Rasmussen said. "It's really about changing the elite in the province as changing the policy direction."

Ultimately, the Saskatchewan public likes NDP policies -- they're just tired of the NDP, he said.

The Sask Party recognizes that and has shed the old Reform Party tinge that coloured its early days, Rasmussen said. "They have reinvented themselves as a mainstream conservative party, and that seems to be enough to make people think they're okay."

If the Sask Party does form the government, Rasmussen said don't expect the Saskatchewan version of the Mike Harris "Common Sense Revolution" in Ontario.

But from a province that has seen pitched political battles in the past over things like medicare, nationalization and privatization, that sounds somewhat dull.

"This has been a terribly boring election," Rasmussen said.