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Real estate market still booming in B.C.

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The Canadian Press

Date: Sunday Oct. 28, 2007 3:01 PM ET

VANCOUVER — With a muscular loonie and a B.C. housing market that shows no sign of slowing down, especially in Vancouver, logic suggests foreign investors might find the real estate market here a little chilly.

U.S.-dollar purchasers face a double whammy of weakened currency and soaring real estate prices.

But experts say that won't deter a lot of investors, who if anything see B.C. assets as an even better bet.

And those who bought when the loonie was nicknamed the northern peso are chortling at their foresight and good sense.

The average selling price of a house in Vancouver and its immediate suburbs reached $819,794 last month, with townhouse condos nudging $600,000 and apartments $400,000.

For British Columbia as a whole, average residential prices climbed 12 per cent in September to $436,000, compared with a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar pushed through the US $1.04 barrier briefly Friday. Experts now believe it could easily surpass US $1.05 by the end of this year, an amazing climb from 65 cents in 2003.

But the steroidal loonie won't deter most foreign buyers, except perhaps at the margins, says Cameron Muir, chief economist at the B.C. Real Estate Board.

"The reality is many U.S. and offshore buyers who are buying here are buying luxury condominiums,'' he says.

"Some of the latest ones downtown now are at $2,000 a square foot.

"Buyers in that category ... are not as sensitive to exchange-rate changes because they have a very high net worth.''

Even for speculative investors, the real estate market here is still considered a profitable prospect, says Muir.

The strong dollar may have some impact, he says, but it can't be easily measured.

However, the board's latest forecast says new housing starts should drop seven per cent this year and dip another four per cent next year.

Combined with low existing inventories and continued high demand, "that provides positive upward pressure'' on prices, says Muir.

Add in Vancouver's obvious physical charms, the market here is still attractive to foreign investors -- which includes those operating in non-U.S. currencies.

"Canada and Vancouver provides security, safety -- safety of capital as well safety of individual,'' says Muir.

One of B.C.'s best-known real estate investment gurus also says the loonie's rise will be negligible.

"The American that bought here three years ago is actually heavily in the money, right?'' says Ozzie Jurock.

"If you were to repatriate that dollar when he paid maybe 75 cents for his real estate, not only did it rise in value, he also made the Canadian-dollar play.''

But a new U.S. player in the market -- say someone looking to invest in a condo in the posh ski resort of Whistler -- may think twice.

"First of all it's more expensive to begin with than it was three years ago ... and secondly the buying power of his dollar is diminished,'' said Jurock.

"The person that thought about coming here is thinking maybe instead of Whistler, I should go to Aspen (Colorado).''

But neither Jurock nor Muir believe American investors will now start profit-taking, which would put some of those units on the market and maybe push down prices.

"We're not seeing a massive divestment of condominiums as a result of foreign buyers wanting to capitalize on the current exchange rate,'' says Muir.

"A lot of them bought here because they like it here,'' says Jurock, echoing Muir's perspective of B.C. as an investor haven.

"They like the idea of being in Canada, the idea of being in a great recreational area. They feel pretty darn good. I don't think there's a motivation to sell.

"In fact they're probably thinking if the dollar goes up further I'm even better off to wait. Whatever my motivation was two years ago, it's stronger today. `I was right.' ''

Muir points out foreign investors are not a big enough group to push the market drastically.

There's no reliable data on the level of foreign investment. A survey last year done by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board found 11 per cent of buyers on the island were from outside Canada.

Muir says a survey by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. in the 1990s found that almost one in two downtown Vancouver condos was investor-owned and rented out as income property. But the vast majority of investors were from the area.

"Real estate markets tend to be local, meaning it's the confidence and financial conditions of people who live, work and raise their families here,'' he says.

But there's another trend Jurock is seeing -- Canadians bargain-hunting in the depressed U.S. real estate market.

The strong loonie's buying power is magnified south of the border where the sub-prime mortgage debacle, with its flood of foreclosures, has pushed down prices.

"I would say I get 10 e-mails a day from Canadians who want to go to Hawaii or Phoenix or all those areas and they're asking me what the laws are, how to get financing, and so on,'' he says.

"There's a lot of Canadians going down the other way that see huge opportunities there. Certainly myself and our investment group does.''

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