CTV News | Toronto blogger turns up NASA climate error

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Toronto blogger turns up NASA climate error

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Wed. Aug. 15 2007 11:00 AM ET

A Toronto blogger's number-crunching skills turned up an error in the math NASA used to determine historic temperatures, forcing the agency to own up to an embarrassing mistake.

NASA had said 1998 was the hottest year on record in the U.S. but later revised the statistics, issuing a new list that instead named 1934 as the hottest year on the books.

Toronto-based blogger Steve McIntyre found the error. In a tongue-in-cheek posting on his blog climateaudit.org, he compared the race for the top spot to the leaderboard results from the U.S. Open.

"There has been some turmoil yesterday on the leaderboard of the U.S. (Temperature) Open and there is a new leader," he wrote on Aug. 8.

"Four of the top 10 are now from the 1930s: 1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939, while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999). Several years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) fell well down the leaderboard, behind even 1900.

McIntyre scrutinized NASA's numbers, looking closely at data that recorded how warm a place is at a specific time, compared to its 30-year average.

He found that the numbers for 1999 to 2000 seemed abnormally high, and discovered that after 1999, the data wasn't being adjusted to figure in the times of day the readings were taken or the locations where they were taken.

He forwarded his findings to NASA, and the review was ordered. Eventually, NASA released a new list of the hottest years on record.

In addition to naming a new year as the hottest, NASA also reduced the mean U.S. temperature anomalies by .15 C for the years 2000 to 2006.

Some consider the adjustment a blow to Al Gore and others who maintain the planet is heating up as the result of global warming. But NASA has downplayed the corrections and even McIntyre has suggested the new numbers would have little impact on climate policy.

McIntyre has said he had fun discovering the flaws, but called the adjustment a "micro-change."

Those who doubt the science behind climate change theory, however, have used the new information as ammunition.

Conservative U.S. radio host Rush Limbaugh called it evidence that global warming is a man-made phenomenon that has been artificially trumped up by liberal scientists.

Others say that proof of errors within the system NASA uses to determine accurate temperature data, means the global warming camp has suffered a significant blow.

The 59-year-old McIntyre is a former mining executive. In 2003 he released data that called into question the accuracy of the "hockey stick" graph used to show rising global temperatures.


Please Add Comments( )

Sal
said
0 0

The climate is changing - you don't need to be a genius to notice. Are the summer's different than when you were a kid?
Why do you suppose that is happening????
No matter who is to "blame", if we can slow the change down by making reasonable changes, why not!


J.F. Chalmers
said
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The naysayers, in their own interest, will use any excuse to deny that global warming is occurring.. note that the adjustment was called a "micro-change" and applies to US temperatures anyhow (yes, the World actually extends beyond the US!). For example the huge rise of mean Arctic temperatures over the last two decades will be much more significant globally particularly as positive feedbacks to rising temperatures.


Dick Varley
said
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Regarding global warming, let Mother Nature take her course. Pollution on the other hand is man made and needs attention.


mcraser
said
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Even if NASA made an error we should still continue to change our ways when it comes to greenhouse emissions


Bruce, in Ottawa
said
0 0

Good for this lad for getting the information correct. But I still do not understand why so many poeple (personalities, government, and "other" groups), insist on keeping their heads in the sand and jumping on any piece of data, no matter how irrelevant it is, to support their "head in the sand" view. Wake up folks... stop trying to make a name for yourself and realize that YOU DO HAVE TO adjust your lifestyle...today...for tomorrow.


peter
said
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The solar warming/cooling cycle is a result of the sun's magnetic field. The human impact on that cycle is 8/10 of one percent (.008%).



Warren Wall
said
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The climate is ALWAYS changing, whether man is here or not.

It's important to look at and research, but the 'religion' of carbon based climate change is a joke. Yet some people want us to spend billions on it.

This just shows that even scientists and liberal bag men can make mistakes.


Gerry Ennis
said
0 0

There has always been a level of doubt about man's role in climate change. It just got a wee bit bigger. It is interesting that Gore and Suzuki have been so fond of using then old data as irrefutable proof of man's guilt when even a small tweak like this causes such a big swing in the results. I think the issue of man's role excellent on-going honest independent study, while we simultaneously examine coping strategies in case we can't influence the warming anyway. Of course that would also mean pursuing excellence in the field of prediction of the effects. Of warming. The range of predictions of sea level rise, even by the "man is bad" faction have a pretty wild range.(an order of magnitude).


Naren
said
0 0

The climate is always changing without human intervention. Surely we didn't cause the glaciers to melt so that Toronto and Montreal could be built on firm ground. Greenland was actually "green" not too long ago, and in 150,000 years Canadians will have to move en masse to Florida, during the next ice age.
We humans are not capable of causing such massive shifts in climate.


OAK
said
0 0

If these scientists aren't smart enought to read a thermometer, how accurate are their theories on climate change and GHGs?

Pretty embarrasing!


Scott
said
0 0

Mars is warming just like earth but the only two working SUV's there are both solar powered. Face it, an increased solar flare activity plays a bigger part on climate change.

That said, we should work to reduce pollution...


Deryk
said
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As one eminent Russian scientist has observed "there is global warming on Mars and without Martians". The same can be said for our planet. If changes in solar activity are to "blame" for global warming what can or should we be doing, if anything ?


Andre, Gatineau
said
0 0

A popular political platform in the 70s was global cooling.
Apparently, the earth got cooler between the 40's and 70s.
Interesting.


Liz
said
0 0

It is quite evident that there are significant changes in the global climate! We don't need data to prove or disapprove it. The fact remains that man is responsible for the drastic shifts that are taking place and it is upto us to make changes now, or see our generations suffer the future we are leaving them. Learn from the aboriginal peoples of the world, it is they who worked with nature and not against it.


cameron
said
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Sal - Let me think back to when I was a kid, going trick or treating in a costume that included shorts and a t-shirt not a snow suit that kids have been using in more recent years. I also remember being told there was global cooling happening and now the same formula that was so obviously wrong about that is being used to predict global warming.


Leeky from Calgary
said
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You would think that if there is even a remote possibility that global warming predictions are wrong, people would be rejoicing. Nevertheless, the political left continues to defend global warming as though it were a religion rather than sharing a communal relief that perhaps we aren't in as bad a shape as we thought.

There is nothing wrong with continuing efforts to address the environment and reduce pollution, but it should now be put in its proper context and taken out of the domain of liberal zealots.


ian
said
0 0

It has been said that governments will always have bogeymen, real or imagined, that the public will need the government to save us from. Today it's global warming. It has been:- global cooling, we are running out of oil, communism, always something. Blaming a warmth cycle on the general population is a way to try to create a one world tax, a one world government, always a goal of the left wing.


Matt
said
0 0

The global warming debate is meaningless right now anyway, as it has been taken out of its most urgent context: the surburban sprawl that is neither economically nor ecologically sustainable.

Whether or not carbon emissions need to be reduced, they cannot and will not be as long as people live in gigantic houses and drive SUVs on hour-long commutes to work.

Even the Al Gore crowd is trying to put a positive spin on "going green" by trying to convince us we can make "small changes" in our lives to fix the problem. Wrong...suburban sprawl must be curbed, for an endless number of reasons, including (perhaps) climate change.


Rick G
said
0 0

Attention, Attention, Attention - Climate change has been going on ever since the earth has been around; the only question is how much of this change is due to man. All of the credible research (meaning research not based on computer models or consensus) that I have seen indicates that man's influence on the climate has been minuscule at best and I believe that these new temperature figures collaborate this. I simply do not understand why the environmentalists want to screw up Mother Nature by trying to stop something that's been going on for millions of years. I believe that the consequences of doing this will be much more disastrous than climate change itself.


Don J
said
0 0

Isn't it a little sad that when presented with a problem that has many different causes, we poor humans can't seem to wrap our heads around it? Global warming is a natural cycle, yes, it is being aggravated to devastating levels by humans, yes, there are a million tiny factors in between, yes.


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