The Quebec Liberal government of Premier Jean Charest won another mandate, albeit a narrow minority, with Charest himself surviving a tough personal challenge from the Parti Quebecois in his Sherbrooke seat.

His party won 48 of 125 constituencies in Monday's election. A majority victory would have required at least 63 seats.

This is the first time in more than 40 years that a Quebec premier has failed to win a second majority. The province hasn't seen a minority government since 1878.

Four of Charest's cabinet ministers were defeated.

"Today, what has happened is historic," Charest told his supporters in Sherbrooke, located in the Eastern Townships southeast of Montreal. He admitted it was a strong rebuke of his government's record and promised to give Quebec a "stable Parliament that will defend the interests of Quebec."

To the surprise of almost everyone, the second-place party is the right-wing nationalist Action democratique du Quebec, led by Mario Dumont, with 41 seats. The ADQ -- which had a five-member caucus when the campaign started -- will form the official opposition.

"Quebec has already entered the 21st century economically and culturally. Today, we entered it politically," Dumont told supporters in Riviere-du-Loup, about 240 kilometres northeast of Quebec City on the south shore of the St. Lawrence River.

He described the campaign as a battle of ideas. "Whether it was about health, schools, the future of the regions -- it was the ADQ's ideas that set the pace for the passionate exchange between Quebecers," he said.

Dumont said Quebec cannot continue on "with what isn't working. Quebecers have shown a profound desire for change. They want to modernize the Quebec model."

He also spoke of his "autonomy" concept, ruling out sovereignty in the process. "The 'autonomous' (approach) is for people who are proud of Quebec, who want to defend Quebec's interests."

The Parti Quebecois, which governed  the province from 1994 to 2003 and had topped the opinion polls for most of Charest's term, finished in third place with 36 seats. That would represent the PQ's lowest seat total since 1989.

"My friends, what we have to realize is that just a few seats separate us from power," PQ Leader Andre Boisclair, who fought his first campaign as leader, told his supporters.

He noted that Quebec has existed for almost 400 years. In speaking of those who have helped build the province, Boisclair said, "We have to honour those people ... We have to speak about how we're original, how we are different, how we are strong. Tonight, we all have a duty to keep this flame alive, and to keep the doors open for Quebec to develop for its future and for the role it can play within Canada and within the world."

Political analyst Tasha Kheirriddin told CTV Montreal that such a reference to Canada isn't normally part of the sovereigntist discourse.

While some analysts speculated Boisclair's leadership wouldn't survive a third-place finish, the PQ leader did not mention the possibility of resigning.

• Liberals - 33 per cent (1.3 million votes)
• ADQ - 31 per cent  (1.2 million votes)
• Parti Quebecois - 28 per cent (1.1 million votes)
• Others - 8 per cent

When he called the election on Feb. 21, Charest's Liberals had 72 seats, the PQ had 45 and the ADQ had five. There was one Independent and two vacancies.

The campaign lasted 33 days, with polls towards the end showing a tight race. Despite heavy rains in parts of Quebec on Monday, voter turnout was solid at 71 per cent.

Analysis

Analysts are joining Charest in using the word "historic" to describe Monday's results.

"It's a historic re-alignment election," said Craig Oliver, CTV's chief political correspondent.

The rise of the right-wing nationalist ADQ is a vindication of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's policy of accommodation towards Quebec. Given these results, a federal election this spring seems almost certain, Oliver said.

Historian David Mitchell believes this could provide the momention for Harper's Conservatives to win enough seats in Quebec to form a cherished majority government, he said.

"What we see tonight is a not-so-quiet revolution in the province of Quebec," said Mitchell.

The federal Conservatives won an unexpected 10 seats in Quebec in the 2006 federal election.

Political analyst L. Ian McDonald told CTV Montreal that this election could mark the decline of the PQ just as the Union Nationale, a party similar in philosophy to the ADQ, started to fade in the 1970s.

He said this is the worst showing for the PQ since 1970. "The PQ is down 600,000 votes from two elections ago. That is a disaster," he said.

A panel of analysts for CTV Montreal felt this election result means another sovereignty referendum in Quebec will now be on the backburner for a long time.

Jean Lapierre, a former federal Quebec politician-turned-commentator, told CTV News the ADQ's remarkable results represents a revolt by the middle class and the regions.

"They were sick and tired of the old parties. They had other priorities, like family values ... and taxes. They felt the other two parties weren't listening to them," he said.

What was really surprising was the ADQ's gains in the suburbs of Montreal, not just in places like Quebec City or some of Quebec's regions, he said.

With files from CTV News, CTV Montreal and The Canadian Press