Stephane Dion seems poised to become the favourite "second choice" for delegates to the Liberal leadership convention, if front-runner Michael Ignatieff falters, a new poll suggests.

Pollster Allan Gregg of the Strategic Counsel says the numbers indicate Ignatieff could falter in his quest to win the Liberal Party's leadership.

"It's going to be very, very difficult for Ignatieff to get to the finish line, but certainly not impossible," he told CTV News on Monday.

The poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, ranks the candidates closely to the percentage of elected delegate support they received during the "super weekend" process in October (the actual percentage is in brackets):

• Ignatieff: 31 per cent (29.3 per cent)
• Rae: 19 per cent (20.1 per cent)
• Dion: 18 per cent (16.1 per cent)
• Kennedy: 17 per cent (17.5 per cent)

While Ignatieff is the front-runner, he ranks poorly when delegates are asked whom they would support as a second choice. This number could be an indicator of a candidate's growth potential on later ballots.

Delegates must vote on the first ballot for the candidate they declared when elected, but in subsequent ballots they are free to vote as they wish.

Balloting will continue until one candidate earns 50 per cent plus one.

The poll of 1,622 delegates finds Dion, a Quebec MP and former cabinet minister, is the top second choice and appears to have the most  momentum going into this week's convention.

Following are the rankings of the four top candidates on the second choice question (the percentage point change from a September poll of 1,000 Liberal party members is in brackets):

• Dion: 23 per cent (+10)
• Gerard Kennedy: 13 per cent (+5)
• Bob Rae: 10 per cent (-13)
• Michael Ignatieff: 6 per cent (-6)

The Strategic Counsel's Tim Woolstencroft told CTV.ca that the differences aren't an apples-to-apples comparison, because the earlier poll was of party members, not delegates. However, one can draw a general conclusion about momentum from them, he said.

"He (Dion) has got momentum, but it's a tortoise's momentum," Gregg said. "The others are stalled in the mud, and he's barely creeping along."

Gregg said a lot can and will happen at the convention to change the race's dynamics.

He noted that 44 per cent of delegates polled say they are undecided on a second choice. Gregg thought that figure will start changing as soon as the convention begins, as most delegates are currently focused on their own candidates.

Fifty-nine per cent of delegates said they would independently vote for their second choice as opposed to 29 per cent who would follow their candidate's lead if that candidate dropped out.

As polarizing figures, Ignatieff and Rae, a former NDP premier of Ontario, face a hurdle with relatively high numbers of delegates saying they would never vote for either of them, especially relative to Dion and Kennedy:

• Ignatieff: 26 per cent
• Rae: 21 per cent
• Joe Volpe: 14 per cent
• Stephane Dion: 4 per cent
• Gerard Kennedy: 3 per cent

Volpe had been hit with ethical controversies over the course of the Liberal leadership race, which officially started in April.

Of Ignatieff, Gregg said: "He's going to have to do something at the convention itself to diffuse this sense that he's a polarizing figure."

Ignatieff's strengths

While he has some significant problems to overcome, the poll also reveals many strengths for Ignatieff.

On the question of which candidate is most likely to win the leadership, the candidates rank as follows:

• Ignatieff: 35 per cent
• Rae: 25 per cent
• Dion: 15 per cent
• Kennedy: 12 per cent

On the question of who is most likely to win the next federal election, Ignatieff has a 10-point lead over his nearest competitor:

• Ignatieff: 33 per cent
• Rae: 23 per cent
• Dion: 17 per cent
• Kennedy: 14 per cent

In general, Ignatieff is found by the respondents to be the most impressive individual, a result that has held throughout polling conducted during the campaign.

Gregg said Ignatieff has the broadest base of support.

"The thing that's going to be really interesting about this convention is you'd be hard-pressed to see any of these candidates winning easily," Gregg said. "Whoever wins is going to crawl to the finish line."

There are plausible scenarios in which any one of the top four candidates could win, "but if you're a betting man, you have to say that Ignatieff will still be standing at the end," he said. The question is who will survive to be on the final ballot with him.

For those looking for a historical comparison to this leadership race, Gregg suggested people study the 1976 Progressive Conservative convention where a fellow named Joe Clark emerged as the winner.

Brian Mulroney was the brash newcomer, Claude Wagner the political veteran and presumed front-runner. But Clark, then a little-known Alberta MP, finished a strong third on the first ballot and emerged the winner on the fourth ballot.

The Quebec resolution

At an October meeting, the Quebec wing of the federal Liberals passed a resolution calling for Quebec to be recognized as a nation within Canada and for the Liberal party to explore ways to "officialize that historical and social reality."

Ignatieff brought the matter up first. Critics immediately blasted him for it.

Interim Liberal Leader Bill Graham was to bring all the candidates together to try and hash out a compromise resolution before the convention because of fears the motion could split the party.

The poll finds the question of Quebec nationhood has split the Liberal party. Forty-one per cent support recognizing Quebec as a nation within Canada, while 43 per cent oppose it. Another 16 per cent didn't know or refused to answer.

"The opposition that exists towards that motion in the rank and file of the Liberal delegates is very, very real and splits the party right down the centre," Gregg said.

In Quebec (the sample size was 316 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 per cent), 55 per cent supported the motion while 37 per cent opposed it.

Forty-four per cent of delegates in the Rest of Canada opposed the motion while 38 per cent supported it.

Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper moved a motion to have Parliament recognize the Quebecois as a nation within a united Canada. The vote took place Monday, passing 266-16.

While Ignatieff supported the move, Dion and Rae were tepid about it, and Kennedy -- who doesn't hold a seat in Parliament -- came out on Monday against Harper's resolution.

Dion voted for it, along with Ignatieff and leadership candidate Scott Brison. Candidate Ken Dryden voted against it, as did Volpe. Bob Rae and Martha Hall Findlay don't hold seats in Parliament.

"This motion will not solve the problem of unity. We need to make sure it will not deteriorate the unity of Canada and it's why I am saying I will be in this debate, to put clarity in the debate," Dion said Monday before the vote.

Gregg noted the most of the polling was done after Harper tabled his motion, but before Kennedy came out against it.

Kennedy may have helped his campaign with his announcement, Gregg said.

"What our research shows is that Ignatieff has done a very, very good job of consolidating the supporters of this resolution," he said.

Those opposing the motion are split amongst the three other front-runners, he said.

"Kennedy has a chance to consolidate some support behind him on this resolution by being the only candidate who is standing there steadfastly opposing it," Gregg said.

Technical notes

• The polling was carried out between Nov. 21 to 27, 2006.
• There were 1,622 delegates interviewed.
• Results are based on a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years old and older.
• The poll's overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• The sample size for Quebec is 316, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
• The sample size for the rest of Canada is 1,306, and the margin of error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

With a report from CTV's Lisa LaFlamme