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Scandal hurt Republicans, exit polls show

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Bill Doskoch, CTV.ca News

Date: Wed. Nov. 8 2006 2:45 PM ET

The Iraq War hurt Republican candidates in the U.S. midterm elections, but corruption and scandal were even bigger problems, according to exit polls.

Three-quarters of voters said Tuesday that corruption and scandal were important to their votes.

Those voters said they were more likely to vote for Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives.

Iraq, another hot-button issue in U.S. politics, was important to two-thirds of voters, who also leaned to the Democrats.

"People are just sick of what the Republicans have done," Democratic strategist Michael Bloomfield told CTV Newsnet on Tuesday night.

"I think the idea of what they want is what we have offered: change."

Some demographic groups that have been very split in other elections -- independents, moderates, the middle class and suburban women -- leaned to the Democrats in votes for the House.

Voters most concerned by scandal and corruption -- about four in 10 voters -- heavily leaned towards the Democrats.

While white evangelical Christians are seen as part of the Republican base, almost one-third voted for Democrats.

Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International conducted the polling for The Associated Press.

The national exit poll interviewed 8,211 voters. The margin of error was plus or minus two percentage points, although it is higher for subgroups.

Republicans have been previously perceived as being strong on terrorism and security.

About three-quarters of those polled ranked it an important issue, but they split between Democrats and Republicans.

More than twice as many voters said they were angry at U.S. President George Bush, rather than enthusiastic.

That could explain why the president hunkered down at the White House Tuesday night, placing phone calls to allies but making no public appearances.

Money and sex scandals

In October, the Republicans were rocked when it became known that Florida Rep. Mark Foley had been sending very sexually suggestive emails to male House pages.

That scandal further tainted the Republicans when it became known that senior Republicans were made aware of Foley's behaviour years ago and yet did nothing.

However, the problems didn't begin there.

Tom DeLay, the fiercely partisan former majority leader in the House for the Republicans, had to step down from that position in January. A Texas grand jury indicted him in late 2005 on charges that he had violated campaign finance laws.

While he bitterly contested the charges, Republican rules forced him to step down. DeLay announced in June he would not seek re-election.

In addition, two of DeLay's aides were indicted in the Jack Abramoff scandal.

Abramoff was a well-connected Republican lobbyist who served on Bush's transition team in 2001. He pleaded guilty in early January to federal charges of conspiracy, tax evasion and mail fraud.

He agreed to assist in the investigation of up to 20 members of Congress who may have accepted contributions, trips and other benefits in exchange for "in exchange for certain official acts."

In March, a judge sentenced Abramoff to 5-1/2 years in prison and fined him US$21 million.

The wider investigation continues.

Rep. Bob Ney, an Ohio Republican, pleaded guilty on Oct. 13 to corruption charges stemming from the Abramoff affair charges of conspiracy and making false statements. He is to be sentenced in January.

One race where the Abramoff Effect may have been felt is Montana, where Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns was seen as being close to the lobbyist. He lost to Democrat John Tester.

The war in Iraq

The Bush administration took the U.S. to war in Iraq on March 19, 2003.

Since then, almost 3,000 U.S. soldiers have died in Iraq. Iraqi deaths can only be estimated, but estimates range from a low of 46,000 to 100,000 or more.

About six in 10 Americans believe the Iraq invasion was a mistake.

This month, the U.S. will have been in Iraq longer than it fought in the Second World War -- and there's no end in sight.

"I was there for about six months," Republican strategist Rich Galen told CTV Newsnet.

"I have to tell you, I am as disappointed as anybody about the way this has gone. I truly believed the day that I drove up to the palace in the Green Zone that it would be just a short matter of time that I would be drinking tea on a boulevard in downtown Baghdad."

Politically, "the Bush administration has done an extraordinarily poor job of explaining, step by step, where we are and where we're going," he said.

Galen added: "In American politics, if you don't define yourself, your opponents will."

The war's unpopularity may have cost Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island his seat. CNN polling showed that while Chafee was personally very popular with Rhode Island voters, 52 per cent of voters there were "strongly" opposed to the Iraq war.

"I think regardless of the results, today is really a referendum on President Bush's handing of the war in Iraq and whether we should bring the troops home," said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy D-Mass, who kept his seat. "You're going to see a movement and a sweep in the outcome. The issue is to what extent."

Democrats have talked of a phased redeployment in Iraq, stepping up efforts in Afghanistan and maintaining a special forces team in the Middle East.

"There's not a lot we can do to actually force the president to leave Iraq,'' admitted Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee. "But ultimately we think we can have some influence.''

The 'lame duck' presidency

Iraq is a major reason that Bush's personal support numbers are mired in the 35 to 40 per cent range.

During this fall's campaigning, many Republicans shunned Bush, fearing being associated with him.

While all presidents lose some of their power in the last two years of their presidency, Bush may now be lamer than most.

"It seems like most presidents get less done in the last two years than they did in the earlier part of their term," said Charles Black, a Republican strategist.

"Some of it is you don't have as much influence. People are paying attention to who might come next instead of who is there now."

The Republicans have lost control of the House of Representatives but the Senate is still in play. However, the Democrats can make more mischief for the president in the House of Representatives.

Bush is still commander-in-chief of the U.S. military and controls most of the security and foreign policy levers.

He can veto legislation and may have enough of a Republican minority to sustain his veto. Presidents also have substantial executive power, allowing them to bypass Congress altogether.

"We have a system of checks and balances, and what has been missing in Washington has been any checks or balances on the Republican presidency," Democratic analyst Michael Bloomfield said.

"One of the criticisms of the Republican leadership in the House and the Senate is that they have basically been rubber stamps for the president."

Bush could find his agenda thwarted as ambitious Democrats launch inquiries into a wide array of his policies and decisions.

"It won't be a happy place to work in the next couple of years," said John Podesta, who was former President Bill Clinton's chief of staff during the impeachment period related to White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

"Whereas you had a kind of lapdog Congress in the past, you're going to have a significant challenge," Podesta said of Bush. "Even if the Republicans retain control, you'll see even more questioning on the Senate side."

With files from The Associated Press

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