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Tories flirting with majority popularity: poll

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Mike Duffy Live: Party strategists on poll numbers

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Thu. Apr. 27 2006 11:40 PM ET

Stephen Harper's Conservatives are growing more and more popular as the fledgling minority government establishes itself, a new survey suggests.

In fact, the new Decima Research poll released Wednesday found the Conservatives drawing support that could carry the party into majority-government territory.

The survey, however, was taken before the government decided to ban media from the repatriation ceremonies for fallen soldiers and also stop the practice of lowering flags to half-mast to honour military casualties.

Those decisions have caused a firestorm of controversy, and may have taken the edge off the Conservative's otherwise commanding lead.

According to the poll, the Conservatives held 41 per cent support nationally, followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent and the NDP at 19 per cent.

The Tories took office after the Jan. 23 election with 36 per cent of the popular vote -- enough to secure a minority government, but four percentage points shy of the 40 per cent that is traditionally seen as the dividing line between minority and majority governments.

Prior to the recent decisions the Tories had been gaining ground steadily.

"(They) appear to be continuing to solidify the gains they made in the last election campaign and to perhaps be adding support as well,'' Bruce Anderson, Decima's CEO, told The Canadian Press.

It's not yet clear what impact, if any, the recent decisions may have on Conservative popularity.

Critics have said the decision to ban media from repatriation ceremonies mimics one made by U.S. President George Bush when the death toll began to mount after the Iraq invasion.

Media pundits have come down hard on the Conservatives for changing the long-standing policy, accusing Harper of attempting to hide the cost of Canada's military commitment to Afghanistan.

The Tories also decided to end the policy of lowering the flag on Parliament Hill to half mast  when a soldier dies.

Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor defended the move, saying it represents a return to a longstanding history of respecting Canada's war casualties just once a year on Remembrance Day.

Flags will still be lowered on military buildings at home and abroad.

Anderson said he believes the controversy over the two recent decisions will likely blow over before it has an impact on the government's popularity.

"I'd be surprised if that changed very much as a consequence of this week,'' he told CP.

Jane Taber, co-host of CTV's Question Period, agreed public dismay over the recent decisions will probably have little effect on the Conservative lead in the polls.

"The Tories are going from strength to strength. I wonder if the so called flag flap and... not letting media film the repatriation ceremonies when the soldiers came back -- I'm even wondering if that's going to have an effect because I think Canadians are very satisfied with the way Mr. Harper is running his government," Taber told CTV's Canada AM Thursday.

Harper's decisive, strong style of leadership has been a refreshing change to voters, Taber suggested.

"Canadians appreciate that and this is what we're seeing in the polls," Taber said.

According to the Decima numbers, the Conservative government has made gains among women, young people and urban Canadians -- groups that have traditionally offered weak support to the party.

Anderson said that growth indicates the Conservatives are being seen more and more as a moderate, centrist party.

Conservative support among women and men is also on the rise, surpassing the Liberals in both categories in every age group, and every region of Canada except Atlantic Canada, according to the poll.

Provincially, the Conservatives held a seven-point lead over the Liberals in Ontario despite the fact the Liberals hold the majority of the seats in the province.

In Ontario the Tories hold 40 per cent support, compared to the Liberals at 33 per cent and the NDP at 25 per cent.

In Quebec the Tories held a thin lead with 25 percent support over the Liberals' 22 per cent, though both were far behind the Bloc with a strong 43 per cent support.

The Decima poll was conducted between April 20 and 23. In total, 1,002 Canadians were surveyed. The poll is accurate 19 times out of 20 and has a 3.1 per cent margin of error.

With files from The Canadian Press

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