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The latest poll by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail again finds a 10-point gap nationally.
Tories lead by 10, but lots of regional fightsUpdated Sat. Jan. 21 2006 11:37 PM ET CTV.ca News Staff With voting day on Monday, stagnant national poll numbers mask some interesting movement among voters in parts of B.C., Ontario and Quebec, says a new poll. The latest poll by the Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail again finds a 10-point gap nationally between the Conservatives and Liberals (percentage point change from a Jan. 17-19 poll in brackets):
For the question of a majority or minority government, "this leaves the Conservatives short," Tim Woolstencroft of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca on Saturday, adding the Tories would have to be in the 42 per cent range or higher to be able to win enough seats to form a majority. In Canada excluding Quebec, the Conservatives have a 42-31 lead over the Liberals. The Conservatives in Quebec have fallen seven points from their post-holiday high of 31 per cent (percentage point change from a Jan. 14-16 poll in brackets):
The Conservatives lost seven points in Montreal, where they now have 16 per cent support, compared to 18 per cent for the Liberals and 47 per cent for the Bloc. Outside Montreal, the Bloc's lead over the Tories has widened to 16 points -- 47-31. In the Jan. 14-16 poll, the gap was down to five points -- 43-38. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe has been strongly attacking the Tories in recent days. On Saturday, the Bloc ran newspaper ads warning Quebecers against placing their faith in a party controlled in Calgary. Woolstencroft said it's hard to estimate how many seats the Quebec Tories' current support will generate because they don't have the "ground forces" to get their vote out in tight races. He did suspect that unless the Bloc's support level jumps substantially, Duceppe won't reach his goal of more than 50 per cent support for his party at the polls. "Separatist party support tends to be overestimated by two or three points in polls," because the Bloc has a great deal of support among very young francophones, but they tend not to vote, Woolstencroft said. In Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are again tied (percentage point change from a Jan. 17-19 poll in brackets):
The Greater Toronto area remains largely immune to Conservative momentum, although Woolstencroft said the party should make gains in the '905' suburbs. While the Liberals have dropped from a high of 50 per cent support earlier this week to 45 per cent in this poll, the Tories remain mired at 30 per cent. However, in the same period, the NDP has moved from 16 per cent to 20 per cent support. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper started his campaign day on Saturday working a Toronto phone bank. Liberal Leader Paul Martin also campaigned in the GTA and southwest Ontario on Saturday before flying to Winnipeg. In British Columbia, Conservative support has subsided somewhat while the NDP has moved into second place (percentage point change from a Jan. 14-16 poll in brackets):
Woolstencroft said NDP Leader Jack Layton has been campaigning in B.C. for the last few days, and that tends to push a party's poll numbers up. Both Martin and Harper will be campaigning in B.C. on Sunday, while Layton finishes off in Toronto. The Tories remain overwhelmingly dominant in the Prairies, with about twice the support of the NDP and Liberals combined. Technical information Results are based on nightly tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older. Interviews were conducted on January 18th, 19th and 21th. Findings have been rolled up and analyzed over a three day period. Here are sample sizes and the margin of error:
Q. If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you'd be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area? Q. In that case, which party's candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area? To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.
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