Results from national polling conducted by The Strategic Counsel done for CTV News and The Globe and Mail. Andrew Lishchyna clutches onto his mother Natalia as Conservative Leader Stephen Harper greets supporters at a large rally in Burlington, Ont. (CP / Tom Hanson)

Tory surge may have peaked, new polls suggest

Updated Wed. Jan. 18 2006 11:20 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The recent Conservative wave of momentum may have peaked or even receded just days ahead of Monday's election, two new public-opinion surveys suggest.

A new poll by The Strategic Counsel, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows that the Conservative strategy to soften Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's hard line image may be working -- giving the Tories an 18-point lead over the Liberals and 42 per cent support nationally.

• Click here for the Strategic Counsel poll

Other polls, however, show a different trend.

A Decima Research survey, conducted Jan. 12-15 for The Canadian Press, suggests that the recent surge in Conservative momentum may have peaked, or even receded, just days ahead of the Jan. 23 vote.

Conducted Jan. 12-15 for The Canadian Press, the poll put the Tories at 37 per cent support, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals -- a 10 per cent difference.

But it was a different story in Quebec, where the Conservatives jumped into second place with 25 per cent support. The Liberals fell to 14.

That finding is backed by The Strategic Counsel poll, which puts the Conservatives in second place in Quebec with 31 per cent support, while the Liberals were down to 12.

An SES survey, meanwhile, conducted Jan. 14-16 for the Canadian Public Access Channel (CPAC), also put the Tories at 37 per cent support nationally, but gave the Liberals a relatively healthier 30 per cent compared to the Decima poll.

The poll results come amid a flurry of warnings about what a Conservative government would do to Canada.

On Tuesday, Harper made the unusual move of assuring Canadians that there would be checks and balances in place if his Conservative Party were to win a majority on Jan. 23.

"What I can say is that there will be a Liberal Senate, there will be a bureaucracy appointed by the Liberals," said Harper on Tuesday in Levis, Que.

"So even with a majority, it's impossible to have absolute power for the Conservatives. There are checks and balances, and that is the reality."

Liberal Leader Paul Martin, meanwhile, continued his dire warnings against a Harper-led Tory government.

Speaking to a gathering of Metis supporters in Saskatoon yesterday, Martin warned that Harper would abandon the Kelowna accord -- an agreement reached between the government and aboriginal Canadians that aims to improve conditions in areas such as health care, education, economic development, housing and water.

He also repeated his belief that Harper would walk away from the Kyoto Accord and break "Canada's word to the world," and would shred social programs to fill the deficit the Liberals have predicted under the Tory platform.

Martin also described the "stark contrast" between himself and Harper.

He claimed his government would protect and value all Canadians, while Harper's would turn back the clock by abandoning progress reached under the Liberals, and would break many campaign promises.

Further, environmentalists, economists, natives, victims groups, law professors and even an abortion doctor have joined the Liberal Leader in a last-ditch effort to stop Harper and the Tories.

Among the detractors:

• The Canadian Climate Coalition complained that the Conservatives were the only party that refused to respond to a questionnaire on the Kyoto Protocol, and accused Harper of moving Canada "into the same camp as U.S. President George W. Bush."
• A group of 66 economists signed a joint statement warning that the tax breaks being offered by the major parties would leave a huge deficit in social services and hurt the poor. They took special aim at the Conservative proposal to eliminate taxes on reinvested capital gains, saying it would "deliver very large tax savings to a tiny group of high-income Canadians."
• Phil Fontaine, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, said he's not satisfied by recent comments by Harper that the party supports the principles of the Kelowna native deal, but not the final agreement and dollar amount.
• The gay-rights group Egale warned that if Harper goes ahead with his plan to reopen the debate on same sex marriage, "it will lead Canada into a legal swamp."
• On Monday, 104 law professors wrote an open letter to Harper saying that his plan to reopen the equal marriage debate would lead to "legal confusion, a lack of uniformity, and unnecessary, protracted and costly litigation."

Harper also faced questions from reporters Tuesday on claims that the Tories harbour a secret agenda to reopen the abortion debate. On Monday, Dr. Henry Morgentaler, the father of the pro-choice movement in Canada, had said Conservatives can't be trusted on the abortion issue.

But Harper maintained he "won't be initiating or supporting abortion legislation."

"I'll use whatever influence I have in Parliament to be sure that such a matter doesn't come to a vote," he added.

The Decima poll of 1,017 Canadians is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The SES poll of 1,200 Canadians is considered accurate to within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With a report from The Canadian Press

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