While the latest election poll shows little movement in the national numbers, the regional results suggest some voters may be set to shake things up.

According to the latest poll conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, voters asked how they would vote if an election were held today have changed little from the previous survey.

If the vote were held based on data culled from interviews conducted between Dec. 5 and Dec. 7, The Strategic Counsel poll found (change from the previous poll in brackets):

• Liberals: 36 per cent (+1)
• Conservatives: 30 per cent (+1)
• NDP: 15 (-1)
• Bloc Quebecois: 14 (+1)
• Green: 5 (-1)

When the numbers are divided by region, however, a more volatile picture emerges -- particularly in the so-called battlegrounds of Ontario and British Columbia.

When asked how they'd vote if an election was held today, respondents across Canada's westernmost province said they'd vote for (change from the previous poll in brackets):

• Liberals: 30 (+1)
• Conservatives: 29 (-2)
• NDP: 31 (+/-0)
• Green: 10 (+1)

But in the densely populated Lower Mainland region, the numbers aren't nearly as close. Voters there told The Strategic Counsel their choices would be (change from the previous poll in brackets):

• Liberals: 37 (+4)
• Conservatives: 28 (-7)
• NDP: 24 (-2)
• Green: 11 (+6)

Across the longtime Liberal stronghold of Ontario, Paul Martin's party continues to enjoy a lead over its rivals. But the gap is narrowing.

When asked how they'd vote if an election were held today, 42 per cent of decided voters in Ontario said they'd throw their support behind the Grit candidate.

That's down from 45 per cent when Canadians last went to the polls in 2004.

Though still trailing the Liberals, Stephen Harper's Conservatives are up four percentage points from their 2004 election result -- to 36 per cent of decided Ontario voters.

The NDP are at 17 per cent (down from 18 per cent in 2004) and the Green Party are up one percentage point to five per cent support.

In the Toronto area, however, where Liberals have traditionally claimed comfortable margins over the other parties, they are seeing support slipping.

In the city's downtown, a vote held "today" would break down as follows (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

• Liberal: 51 per cent (-5)
• Conservative: 17 per cent (-3)
• NDP: 24 per cent (+4)
• Green: 8 (+4)

And in Southwestern Ontario, even though they aren't losing support, the Liberals are nevertheless losing ground to the Conservatives. On the question of who they'd vote in an election held today, voters in that region said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

• Liberal: 41 per cent (+1)
• Conservative: 43 per cent (+9)
• NDP: 11 per cent (-10)
• Green: 5 (+/-0)

Technical notes

Results are based on nightly tracking in phone interviews with adult Canadians conducted between Dec. 5 and Dec. 7.

The B.C. data is based on a proportional sample of 199 respondents, yielding results considered accurate within +/-7.0 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The Ontario results are based on a proportionate sample of 569 Ontarians 18 years of age or older. Results are considered accurate within +/- 4.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Where necessary to report on sufficient sample sizes, findings have been rolled up and analyzed over an eight day period beginning Nov. 29.

In those cases, the sample size (with the margin of error in brackets) is:

• Canada: 1,500 (2.5)
• Lower Mainland B.C.: 298 (5.7)
• Rest of B.C.: 267 (6.0)
• GTA - 416 & 905 region: 688 (3.7)
• GTA - 416 region: 410 (4.9)
• GTA - 905 region: 262 (9.1)
• Outside GTA - Southwestern & Eastern Ontario: 922 (3.2)
• Southwestern Ontario: 311 (5.6)
• Eastern Ontario: 242 (6.3)

To obtain a written copy of the poll, contact The Strategic Counsel, 21 St. Clair Ave. E., Ste. 2100, Toronto, ON, M4T 1L9.