CTV News | Canada's East and West can expect mild winter

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Canada's East and West can expect mild winter

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CTV News: Todd Battis on the wacky winter weather
CTV Newsnet: David Phillips on the winter forecast

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tue. Oct. 4 2005 7:58 AM ET

Most of Canada will be able to go easy on the snow shovel this year. That's the prediction from Environment Canada, which says it believes a trend toward milder winters will continue for both the East and the West.

Environment Canada's senior climatologist David Phillips says that from British Columbia to Thunder Bay, Ontario, temperatures will be warmer and there will be less snow than last year.

The Maritimes, Atlantic Canada and the Gaspe region of Quebec are also expected to get off easy.

However, most of Ontario and Quebec are expected to have temperatures closer to normal for winter. But because some regions got so much snow last year (southern Ontario got 25 per cent more than usual), Phillips is predicting less precipitation than last winter.

"That doesn't always mean less snow because we never say the type of precipitation," he told the Canadian Press. "It could be (you have) below normal precipitation but your snowfall is higher because you have less rainfall."

The reason it's likely to be so mild for much of the country is that our unusually hot summer and early fall has left heat trapped in the ground and lakes, Phillips says.

He's also fairly sure that the country won't see an early winter because the northern parts of Canada are still enjoying balmy temps.

"Until winter arrives in the North, it's not going to arrive in the south; that's where winter comes from,'' Phillips says.

Phillips does feel certain about his forecast that ski resorts in British Columbia should be happy this winter.

"I'd be willing to bet my pension on the fact that there's going to be more snow in resorts and mountains in British Columbia and Alberta this winter than there was last winter," Phillips told CTV News.

Last year was the worst season on record for skiing in British Columbia, with precious little snow but plenty of rain. The region got 600 mm of rain in January alone last winter.

But at the end of the day, Phillips admits that there are no guarantees that his weather predictions will be right. Environment Canada is getting better at long-term forecasts, particularly through monitoring ocean temperatures.

But it's still an inexact science, he says.

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