With Labour Day now in sight, it's worth asking: which national leader had the best political summer?

Or, by process of elimination, why not ask who had the worst summer?

"It's almost a toss-up between Harper and Martin," Rosemary Thompson, CTV News' deputy Ottawa bureau chief, told CTV.ca.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper faced the most pressure to turn his party's numbers around.

When the last session ended in late June, the Tories promised an image makeover for Harper, with plans for him to work the summer barbecue circuit and show his more personable side. He tried, but it didn't move his party's numbers.

"He hasn't done anything to give Canadians any other reason to consider him than he has within prior months," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner of The Strategic Counsel, polling firm for CTV and The Globe and Mail, told CTV.ca.

According to the latest poll by The Strategic Counsel of 1,000 Canadians (conducted between Aug. 3 and 7) the Liberals are at 36 per cent (up one point from July), while the Conservatives are at 28 per cent (up two points). The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20, so there's been no statistically significant change since July.

Those numbers aren't that different from the popular vote results of the June 28, 2004 federal election.

Pollster Michael Marzolini of Pollara said the current numbers are "summer numbers." People don't start thinking seriously about politics until after Labour Day – especially this year.

"They wanted to have a nice summer," he told CTV.ca, noting people were overwhelmed by the crazy political spring.

The fall political season begins in earnest when Parliament reconvenes on Sept. 27.

Other than touting a tax break for public transit users during a visit to Toronto, Harper hasn't talked much policy this summer, something everyone sees as his supposed strength.

On Sunday's Question Period, Tory spokesman Tim Power said: "The one thing Stephen Harper is doing this summer that the Prime Minister isn't doing -- he's out there actually talking to people.

"And yes, he can actually flip burgers and talk policy at the same time … He's actually out there talking policy. Where has Paul Martin been?"

Thompson had this observation: "Good old (former prime minister Jean) Chretien said the best way to manage was to stay out of voters' faces."

Martin on the road

Martin is starting to once again show his face, as the federal Liberal caucus meets in Regina for three days, followed by a two-day cabinet meeting in Winnipeg.

The West isn't the only area where the Liberals want to be seen.

Back in June, Transport Minister Jean Lapierre said starting Aug. 10, the Liberals would start a campaign in Quebec to rebuild support there.

However, the controversy over Governor General-designate Michaella Jean sideswiped this effort.

The GG issue aside, Liberal popularity has been slowly rebounding in Quebec since some of the sponsorship inquiry's most damaging revelations.

From a low of 16 per cent in Quebec on April 27, Liberal support is now 31 per cent. That parallels a drop in the importance of the sponsorship scandal as a national issue. In the poll, only two per cent of respondents rated the sponsorship scandal as the top issue facing Canada. In May, 23 per cent said it was the top issue.

The Bloc Quebecois, while still the most popular party in Quebec, saw its support fall to 46 per cent in the latest poll, 10 points below its sponsorship peak of 56 per cent in a May 8 poll.

Sponsorship backlash helped push Conservative popularity above the Liberals in May, but it has since sagged back below.

While Harper admitted on Aug. 19 that sponsorship interest is on summer recess, "when we have an election, the government's record will be back on the radar," he told reporters in Saint John, N.B.

"I think he's right. I think it will," Thompson said, noting Justice John Gomery will release his findings of fact on Nov. 1, followed by recommendations on Dec. 15.

Martin has promised to call an election within 30 days of Gomery tabling that final report, but the first report is the one pundits think will be the most politically damaging.

"I think their (the Liberals') numbers may drop briefly in November after the first report comes out, but then they've got a chance to rebuild over December and January," Thompson said. "By the time the final report comes out, I think the worst of the damage will be done."

Woolstencroft said the Tories can't rely on the Liberals to beat themselves this fall; they have to put some policies out to give Canadians a reason to vote for them.

The Conservatives may have been listening. On Tuesday, they released some new, campaign-style, issues-oriented ads.

Thompson said if one looks back at this summer five months from now, the leader who might look most-improved is NDP Leader Jack Layton.

"If people are looking for an alternative to the Liberals, and they don't like Harper, they might go NDP," she said.

People backed off supporting the NDP in the last campaign because they feared a Tory government. "This time people won't be scared into that," she said.