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Liberals' lead over Tories remains stable: poll

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Sun. Jul. 17 2005 8:36 PM ET

The Liberals continue to hold a nine-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, finds a new poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

The Strategic Counsel poll found that Liberal support crept up a point from the last poll taken in early June, to 35 per cent.

The Conservatives hold steady at 26 per cent support. NDP support remains flat at 19 per cent, as does support for the Bloc Quebecois at 13 per cent. Support for the Green Party dropped two points to seven per cent.

One thousand adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone between July 5 and July 10. A sample that size yields a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The error rises for regional breakouts.

The Liberals continue to enjoy a rebound in Quebec where support has climbed from a low of 16 per cent in late April to 28 per cent in the first week of July. At the same time, support for the Conservatives in Quebec has slipped to its lowest level, to six per cent. In Ontario, voter support remains largely unchanged.

Minority government achievements

When asked: What is the most notable achievement of the minority government?, approximately 60 per cent of those polled could not identify any notable achievements.

Respondents were then given a list of possible achievements: The health care accord to increase federal spending; same-sex marriage legislation; tsunami relief effort; agreements with provinces for federal funding of day care; offshore oil deal with Newfoundland and Nova Scotia; and the increase in social spending through the budget.

Asked to choose between those, 28 per cent chose increased federal spending on health care. That was followed by the same-sex marriage legislation (19 per cent).

On the surface, it appears that Canadians are evenly divided over whether the Liberal government has performed well. However, a deeper analysis suggests that Canadians feel that Prime Minister Paul Martin has done an effective job in consolidating and solidifying Liberal support.

As expected, "hard" and "soft" Liberals have a strongly positive view of the government's performance, but "potential" Liberal voters (67 per cent) also believe that the government has performed well.

Even a majority of "hard", "soft", and "potential" NDP supporters believe that the Liberal minority government has performed well.

While "hard" and "soft" Conservative voters are adamant that the Liberal minority government has performed poorly, "potential" Conservative voters are evenly divided on the government's performance.

Strategic Counsel analysts say the fact that these voters are divided on the government's performance "provides further proof of the effectiveness of the Liberal strategy to build support for the party."

It appears Canadians have grown tired of minority government wrangling. The poll found a clear consensus among Canadians that they would like to see a return to a majority government. A full 58 per cent said they prefer a majority government, while just 32 per cent prefer a minority government.

Party leadership changes

While impressions toward Martin and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper have worsened significantly over the past year, Harper has taken a bigger hit in the past two months.

The proportion saying their impressions of Harper have "gotten worse" has doubled from April (21 per cent) to July (41 per cent), while the proportion whose impressions have "improved" has declined from 22 per cent in April to 14 per cent in July.

While Martin's image has also deteriorated significantly over the past year, the proportion saying his image has "improved" has increased from 10 per cent in April to 15 per cent in July, while those saying their impressions have "gotten worse" has declined from 49 per cent to 42 per cent.

Regardless, Martin's "gotten worse" rating is on par with Harper's.

Opinions of NDP Leader Jack Layton have also improved, from 27 per cent (April) to 32 per cent (July), although most people's impressions remain unchanged (53 per cent).

Almost 59 per cent say that Stephen Harper should be replaced as Conservative leader, while 41 per cent want Harper to remain. Interestingly, some 45 per cent of Western Canadians want Harper, who represents a Calgary riding, to be replaced. Even one-third of "hard" Conservatives support replacing Harper.

Moreover, the desire for change is also strong among "potential" Conservative voters, with 50 per cent of these wanting a new leader.

There are also indications of strong support for a change in the Liberal leader, but views are more divided: 52 per cent say that they want a leadership change, while 48 per cent indicate a desire for the status quo.

However, Liberal supporters are much more supportive of Paul Martin remaining as leader: the majority of "hard" Liberals, "soft" Liberals, and "potential" Liberals support the status quo. Even "NDP-Liberal switchers" prefer retaining Martin as leader.

Both Layton and Bloc Quebois Leader Gilles Duceppe enjoy strong support as leaders with very little desire for change.

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