After one of the nastiest political winters in memory, Prime Minister Paul Martin and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper will spend the summer season in campaign mode.

A spring or summer election call was averted in May, but neither leader looked like much of a winner after the heated battle to defeat Martin's minority government.

Both men emerged with low approval ratings in a recent poll (40 per cent for Harper, 44 per cent for Martin). With an election call expected early in 2006, they have to start re-defining themselves now.

For example, Harper came across as aloof, angry and unable to talk about anything other than Liberal corruption. His approval numbers dropped 10 points between May and June polls.

"He's got to show there's a warmer, more comfortable side to him that people can relate to," Robert Fife, CTV News' Ottawa bureau chief, told CTV.ca.

Harper's team has said their man will be out, about and seen to be having fun on the summer barbecue circuit.
 
However, the problem goes beyond Harper's image, and into the realm of policy. The Conservatives held their first policy conference in late March, but the party's actual platform is still under wraps.

"We still don't know what his policies are," Fife said.

Tim Woolstencroft -- managing partner for The Strategic Counsel, a Toronto-based polling firm -- told CTV.ca the Tories should consider releasing their platform this summer as part of an effort to define themselves. He said a standard 35-day election campaign won't provide enough time to communicate their message.

If the next election comes down to a "least worst" vote, the Liberals will win, because on most major issues, "they've got the stronger brand," Woolstencroft said.

Mr. Dithers

While Harper must raise his scores on policies, judgment and likeability, Martin must do some re-defining of his own. The "Mr. Dithers" label is sticking to him. People see him as a man incapable of making a decision -- and as one who will strike almost any deal to stay in power.

When he became Liberal Party leader and prime minister in late 2003, Martin had many priorities: Ending the democratic deficit, fighting western alienation, advances on the cities, child care, health and First Nations files, building a 21st Century economy and so on.

While he signed a health accord with the provinces, and launched his child-care and cities programs, Martin has seemingly abandoned others.

Asked what happened to the West and the democratic deficit, to name two, Fife said, "He's forgotten about a lot of things, about a lot of his 'number one' priorities."

One clear political priority for Martin is Quebec, and this seems to be where the Liberals will focus their efforts this summer.

In a June 12 interview with CTV's Question Period, Jean Lapierre, Martin's transport minister and Quebec lieutenant, said the party would be launching a plan of action in that province on Aug. 10 and letting it roll right to the year's end.

Quebec has 75 seats, with the Liberals holding 21 and the Bloc holding 54. After the sponsorship scandal, most pundits believe the Liberals will be lucky to keep what they have.

If Martin dreams of a majority government, "he's got to figure out Quebec. He can't win a majority government unless Quebec supports him," Fife said.

At this point, however, "(Martin's Liberals) could continue to lose more seats and be shut out of francophone seats entirely," The Globe and Mail's John Ibbitson told CTV.ca.

Things look even bleaker for the NDP and Conservatives in Quebec.

As for Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, "as long as he can keep riding Gomery, he's set for major gains," he said.

Duceppe, Layton

Duceppe is only a political force in Quebec, but his approval rating of 70 per cent is sky-high. NDP Leader Jack Layton earned a 61 per cent approval rating.

Ibbitson likes Layton's chances to build this summer on a great spring for that party. The NDP used its 19-member caucus to leverage an additional $4.6 billion in spending on NDP priorities.

"Layton has discovered if you can get a government to amend its budget and look serious in the House, you can start to dispel the image of a marginal and irrelevant party," he said.

But neither Duceppe nor Layton are likely contenders for the prime ministership. That fight is between Harper and Martin.

Woolstencroft said of those two, whoever does the best job of improving their image with voters will be the leader likely to make gains in the next election. That could be tough.

 "They both have much less room to define themselves," he said, noting the last election was only a year ago.

The stakes are high for both men. The mutterings about Harper's leadership are quite loud, but "there's no great happiness with Martin or the crowd around him," Fife said.

Chances are the worst performer of the two in the next election won't be a party leader at this time in 2006.