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Liberals have 14-point lead over Tories: poll

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CTV News: Polls show Liberals have popular support

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Canadian Press

Date: Thu. Jun. 9 2005 7:50 AM ET

OTTAWA — The Liberals vaulted to a 14-point lead over the Conservatives in popular support, suggests a new poll released to The Canadian Press.

A Decima survey last week suggests support for the federal Tories crumbled, putting them in a virtual dead heat with the NDP.

The Liberals were at 37 per cent support, the Tories had 23 per cent and the NDP were trailing them closely at 21 per cent.

Most surprising were the numbers in the critical battleground of Ontario, where the Conservatives were running neck-and-neck with the Grits barely a month ago.

Decima said the Tories had fallen 26 points behind the Liberals and were in third place behind the NDP. The Liberals had 48 per cent in that province, the NDP was at 24 and the Conservatives held 22 per cent.

"The trend lines -- especially in Ontario -- are definitely better for the Liberal party than they were several weeks ago, no question about that,'' said Bruce Anderson, head of Decima Research Inc.

The New Democrats also held small leads over the Tories among women, single people and voters under age 34.

The poll of 1,000 respondents was conducted June 2-5. Decima said the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, but the provincial and demographic breakdowns are less reliable because they have a smaller sample size.

Those kinds of poll numbers could have a significant impact on federal politics and the timing of an election.

A Tory party that just days ago had Parliament paralysed in its effort to topple the Liberal government now seems destined to sit patiently through an election-free spring.

The Liberals have steadily climbed back in a series of polls after being battered by a daily stream of revelations at the sponsorship inquiry.

However, the Conservatives had even less support than they did before tales of corruption in Liberal ranks surfaced in April, the poll suggests.

But Liberals shouldn't feel too triumphant, Anderson warned.

The wild swings suggest a temperamental electorate, and these latest Decima numbers would still likely give the Liberals only a minority government.

"(These are) not unprecedented levels of support for the Liberal party,'' Anderson said.

"I would say it's more reasonable to assume that they're fragile, rather than sturdy levels of support because of the volatility we've seen.''

Anderson blamed the Tories' poor showing on a strategy that has been "out of sync'' with the desires of the electorate.

In their efforts to take down the government, the Tories found themselves running against public opinion among voters who didn't want an election and actually liked the NDP-inspired changes to the federal budget.

Parliament was shut down for a few days as the Tories and Bloc Quebecois boycotted to protest the Liberals clinging to power.

"During the same period, the NDP has been urging that the House (of Commons) keep working, that it expand its agenda beyond ... corruption, and has been promoting social spending over corporate tax cuts,'' Anderson said.

The Tories appear unlikely to try forcing an election again this spring, as MPs suggest the party will spend the summer shaping policy and building popular support.

That would be in keeping with what voters want, the Decima poll suggests.

Only 12 per cent of respondents said the Tories should renew their takedown effort, compared to 76 per cent who said they should wait.

The Liberals responded gleefully to Decima's numbers.

"I've always been confident that the general public in Ontario saw the merits of a good government,'' said Immigration Minister Joe Volpe, the Liberals' political minister for the province.

"The programs that we began to outline and publicize through the budget were ones that galvanized public opinion and won public confidence.''

The Tories said they'll keep working to win public support.

"These things wax and wane,'' said Tory finance critic Monte Solberg.

"I think we just keep pounding away, stay positive, and in the end people will come around to our point of view.''

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