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Five major hurricanes could hit Atlantic: NOAA

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Canada AM: Steve Miller, Cdn. Hurricane Centre
CTV News: Joy Malbon on the new hurricane threat
CTV Newsnet Live: NOAA announces 2005 outlook

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tue. May. 17 2005 11:11 AM ET

In a foreboding warning to those on the east and Gulf coasts, U.S. government forecasters say the upcoming hurricane season will be worse than average -- news that could also impact Canadians.

"With last year's devastating hurricane still fresh in our minds, your hurricane team is preparing again for a very busy season," Brig. Gen. David Johnson of the U.S. Weather Service said Monday.

At a press conference in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) warned that there could be between three and five major hurricanes this year.

Hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of 179 kilometres-per-hour (111 mph) are considered to have reached "major" status.

The NOAA also announced the hurricane season, which runs from June through November, will have 12 to 15 named storms, including seven to nine hurricanes.

The above-average season is expected to be part of a trend that reached a peak last year and began in 1995.

"We are seeing the same types of climactic conditions setting up for this year, and expect that cycle to continue," said NOAA Administrator Vice Adm. Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. USN (Ret).

Major hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne in 2004 devastated parts of the U.S. Atlantic coast in 2004, wreaking more than $20 billion US in property damage and bringing down offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters say above-average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, combined with weak El Nino conditions in the eastern Pacific, are setting the table for another strong Atlantic tropical-storm season.

El Nino refers to the warming of ocean surfaces off the western coast of South America. It affects the jet stream, alters storm tracks and creates unusual weather patterns.

Last year's season had eight hurricanes out of a total of 15 named storms. Six storms developed into major hurricanes.

A typical hurricane season in the Atlantic produces about 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes.

With so many storms brewing in the United States, experts say Canadians shouldn't be complacent.

"So I'll be looking for probably around five storms we are going to have to keep an eye on, monitor and write bulletins on," Steve Miller of the Canadian Hurricane Centre told CTV News.

Environment Canada weather expert Dave Phillips says past examples show Canadians should prepare for the storms.

"When we look at the statistics from the past, 40 per cent of North Atlantic hurricanes enter Canadian waters, or into Canadian territory, where our forecasters have to look at them and be prepared to make warnings for Canadians," Phillips told CTV News.

"Clearly, we are not immune from these monster storms."

With a report from CTV's Joy Malbon

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