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Analysis: Blame Parliament's paralysis on politics

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Bill Doskoch, CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Fri. May. 13 2005 5:02 PM ET

Parliament is in shambles right now.

After Tuesday evening's vote of non-confidence, which the Liberal minority government lost 153-150, the Grits initially brushed it off as a mere procedural motion.

But by noon Wednesday, after an emergency cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Paul Martin announced there would be a vote on his government's budget on May 19.

The Liberals would treat the vote as a matter of confidence. If his government lost the vote, Martin said he would dissolve Parliament and ask Gov. Gen. Adrienne Clarkson to call an election.

But this did little to appease Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe, who demanded a vote on the budget that very day.

Harper accused the prime minister of playing for time.

B.C. Conservative MP Darrel Stinson, one of two Tories ill with cancer, even went so far as to ask Martin: "Is he hoping that some of us may not be able to make it?"

Stinson is scheduled to have surgery next Wednesday and therefore won't be in the House for the vote.

But two Liberal MPs who were absent Tuesday -- along with independent MP Chuck Cadman, himself battling cancer -- will likely be present.

Since then, the Tories and the Bloc have essentially gone on strike, forcing early adjournments of the House to prove the Liberals have lost control.

Craig Oliver, CTV's chief political correspondent, told CTV.ca this situation is unprecedented. "Everybody from cancer victims to the Queen is being used as a pawn here," he said.

Power is at this battle's heart.

"The Liberals are desperate to hang onto power, and they believe they need to hang onto power for the best interests of the nation," Oliver said.

"The opposition says this government has lost its moral authority and its constitutional right to govern, and if they believe that ... you can understand why they can't back away and allow them to govern."

Robert Drummond, a York University political scientist, told CTV.ca the motive might also be to show that Parliament can't work, so it's time for an election.

"The general sentiment of the public (has been) that 'while we're not crazy about the Liberals, we don't want another election real soon'," he said.

The law

Patrick Monahan, a constitutional law expert at Osgoode Hall law school in Toronto, sees this as more of a political crisis than a constitutional one. Drummond concurred with that view.

With respect to Tuesday's vote, Monahan told CTV.ca the Liberals were probably right to not treat it as a true confidence test.

But there's an important "if" attached to that: "Provided they did provide an opportunity within a reasonably short period of time to test the confidence of the House," he said.

"It seems to me that scheduling something this coming week was reasonable," he said, adding he recognized there were "differing views" on this.

Monahan went on to explain that the motion's problem was "it asked a committee to amend a committee report," he said. "The committee may or may not amend the report."

Specifically the motion asked the Commons public accounts committee to amend a report dating back to October 28, 2004: "To recommend that the government resign because of its failure to address deficiencies in governance of the public service."

The government said it would only recognize the vote as a non-confidence motion if the committee made the change and the House ratified it.

Monahan said a non-confidence motion must be a clearly worded statement that the House has lost confidence in the government.

The opposition can present such a motion on what's known as an opposition day. There was one scheduled for May 19, but the government trumped it by setting the budget vote for that day.

Budgets are a fundamental part of the government's agenda, so a budget's defeat is automatically regarded as a declaration of non-confidence.

While the government's fate should be known by next Thursday, the Tories and the Bloc may or may not continue to obstruct Parliament.

"I don't know how long they're going to carry on. I guess we're in a bit of a standoff," Monahan said.

"We're going to evaluate our strategy and our tactics all week long," Conservative House Leader Jay Hill told reporters on Friday.

Oliver said the Liberals only have to get through Friday and Monday.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Martin will be with Queen Elizabeth II in western Canada, and it's unlikely the Tories would do anything to ruin the start of her visit, he said.

Oliver said the government would rather fall Thursday over the budget than a non-confidence motion.

"They'd rather fall on the budget, because then they can go to the electorate and say, 'here's this great budget you weren't able to get because we weren't allowed to continue,'" Drummond said.

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