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Cdns. suspicious of a Tory hidden agenda: poll

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CTV Newsnet: Poll finds most Cdns. distrust Harper
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CTV News: Tom Clark with the latest Strategic Counsel poll numbers
Canada AM: Tim Woolstencroft, Strategic Counsel
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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Sat. Apr. 30 2005 9:21 PM ET

The Liberal Party's strategy to portray Stephen Harper as an ideologue with a hidden agenda up his sleeve appears to be working.

Over half of Canadians still don't trust the Conservative leader, according to a poll conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

Of the 1,000 people surveyed, 57 per cent said they believed Harper's Tories are keeping their most unpopular plans under wraps -- plans that many Canadians might find unpalatable should they come to fruition under a Conservative government.

"Clearly (Harper's) not been able to shed some of his history with the Alliance and Reform party," said Timothy Woolstencroft, a managing partner with The Strategic Counsel. "There is a real profound sense out there that Stephen Harper has got a hidden agenda. And the Liberals have been successful in implanting that image."

Martin tried to dig that image even further into the minds of Canadians during campaign-style stops in Manitoba and Saskatchewan to announce child-care deals for those provinces. 

"The issue isn't where does Stephen Harper stand in the polls. The issue is where does he stand on the issues,'' said Martin. "Canadians don't know, and what they do know worries them."

Distrust of the official Opposition was more pronounced in English Canada than Quebec, where respondents leery of the Conservative agenda trailed their counterparts in the rest of the country by seven percentage points.

Martin also wants voters to believe Harper is soft on separatism, accusing the Tory leader of forming an unholy alliance with Gilles Duceppe's separatist Bloc Quebecois to bring down the government.

"Don't ask me what Stephen Harper is thinking. If you want to know what Stephen Harper is thinking you should probably ask Gilles Duceppe," said Martin.

Speaking at a lunchtime meeting sponsored by the Fraser Institute in Calgary on Friday, Harper fought back, saying he'd never stoop to a "deal with the devil."

"If I thought the way our prime minister did, I could go out tomorrow and sign a deal with the Bloc, and could be prime minister of this country without even holding an election," said Harper.

"But these are the kind of deals I will never sign."

Thirty-six percent of respondents backed Harper, saying they don't believe the Liberals' accusation of a hidden Tory agenda.

Martin's credibility problem

The poll shows that Martin has his own image issues to worry about.

When asked whether they believed Martin's claim that he was not involved in the scandalized sponsorship program, the majority were unconvinced.

Thirty-one per cent said the Prime Minister's claim was either somewhat or very believable, compared to 63 per cent who said it was not.

When the opinions of Quebecers are singled out, Martin's credibility problem is even more pronounced, with 82 per cent saying they found him somewhat or very unbelievable. In contrast, just 57 per cent of respondents in English Canada felt the same way.

Martin might find some consolation in the fact 56 per cent of those surveyed said talk of the Gomery inquiry had not changed their opinion of his party.

But among the 39 per cent who said their attitudes had shifted, an overwhelming 88 per cent said they were less supportive now than before.

Nevertheless, sixty-one per cent of those surveyed said Martin's plea that Canadians wait for an election until after Gomery reports was a reasonable idea.

Overall, 33 per cent disagreed, saying Martin should call an election now.

Tories losing support

The numbers may add up to bad news for Martin, but Harper appears to have benefited little.

In fact, the Strategic Counsel poll results suggest the Conservatives are losing support.

When asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote Conservative in the event opposition parties force an election, 62 per cent said it would have no effect either way.

While 12 per cent said they'd be more likely to vote for the Conservatives, 21 per cent said that would be less likely.

Voters' hesitation, it seems, is coming from a combination of belief that just a few Liberals were responsible for the spending scandal and apprehension of a hidden Conservative agenda.

Woolstencroft said he believes the Conservatives have been "riding on Gomery corruptions charges for the last five to six weeks," and haven't done been doing enough to show Canadians that they're a viable government in waiting by presenting a strong party platform.

The party leaders

When asked about individual leaders, respondents suggested the NDP's Jack Layton is enjoying the biggest boost.

In a series of questions asking whether opinions of the four leaders have changed in the past year, Layton improved in the opinion of 27 per cent. Thirteen per cent said he had gotten worse, with the rest saying he had stayed the same.

Although opinion of Gilles Duceppe rose among 36 per cent of Quebecers, 70 per cent of all respondents said their opinion of him had not changed at all.

Countrywide, just 10 per cent said they thought more highly of Martin now than a year ago. That contrasts sharply with the 49 per cent who said their opinion of the Liberal leader had declined. When the opinions of just Quebecers were counted, 60 per cent said their opinion of the prime minister had gotten worse.

Harper might find some consolation in the 22 per cent who said they think better of Harper now than a year ago. The flipside, however, is that a nearly equivalent amount -- 21 per cent -- said they held the opposition leader in lower regard now compared to a year ago.

Conducted following the prime minister's unusual prime-time television appeal to voters last week, the poll surveyed the opinions of 1,000 Canadians.

Other poll results released Thursday showed that if an election was held today, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a dead heat in a race for national support.

By focusing on governance and shifting away from the sponsorship scandal, Woolstencroft said the Liberals have been able to crawl back into a competitive race. 

He warns, however, that Liberal support is "very, very soft."

"So we need to be cautious in suggesting that this is a permanent bounce back," said Woolstencroft.

Polling details: This poll was conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel. Telephone interviewing was conducted between April 24th and 27th, 2005. The weighted nation-wide sample is based on 1,000 which yields a margin of error of 3.1 per cent 19 times in 20. (Note: Proportions may not sum to 100 per cent due to rounding.)

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