The Liberal Party has plunged to the lowest level of support from Canadians in the past 16 years, a new poll has found, putting Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority government in serious jeopardy.

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, puts Liberal support at 27 per cent, down 10 points from a mid-February poll. The previous modern low-water mark was in March 1989, when they recorded 29 per cent support under the leadership of John Turner.

The polling was conducted between April 8 and 10. The startling testimony of Jean Brault, a former advertising executive, was made public by the Gomery inquiry on April 7.

"It would appear the recent revelations of the Gomery Commission have strongly resonated with the Canadian public," said an Ipsos-Reid news release.

Here are the figures for all five major parties (February 15-17 results in brackets):

• Liberals: 27 per cent, -10 (37)
• Conservatives: 30 per cent, +4 (26)
• NDP: 19 per cent, +2 (17)
• Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent, +2 (10)
• Greens: 7 per cent, 0 (7)

In Quebec, where the Gomery hearings are the object of intense public interest, the Bloc has 48 per cent support. The sovereigntist party holds a 30-point lead over the Liberals, who are at 18 per cent.

The poll contains more ominous news for Liberals:

• Because of revelations at the Gomery inquiry, 45 per cent feel the Liberals have lost their moral right to govern, while 52 per cent say they haven't; and 
• Sixty-five per cent say the Liberals don't deserve re-election and that it's time for another party to govern Canada.

However, 87 per cent agree with the view that the Gomery inquiry should be allowed to complete its investigation of the sponsorship scandal before an election is called. And the poll found 71 per cent of Canadians saying the Gomery commission's findings will only be one of many factors in determining how they vote when the next federal election comes.

So it's going to be a "delicate matter" for the Conservative party to figure out the timing of the Liberal minority government's fall and send Canadians to the polls, said Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker.

"Basically what the Tories have to do is come up with a really good answer as to why (call) an election now. They have to confirm with Canadians that the Gomery commission will continue its work, that it's not going to be affected by an election," Bricker said Tuesday on CTV's Canada AM.

What could be seen as good news for Liberals:

• A slim majority (52 per cent) thinks the alleged misdeeds are the work of rogue elements within the Liberal party and not the party in general.
• Forty-eight per cent say they still trust Martin more than Conservative Leader Stephen Harper despite the Gomery commission's revelations; however, 46 per cent disagree with that statement.

"Clearly the government is back on its heels," Bricker told CTV.ca.

While Liberal support is falling, people also don't seem to like the other choices available to them, Bricker said.

Of those polled, 55 per cent say they would never consider voting Liberal in the next election, and 50 per cent claim they would never vote Conservative.

"It's not people running to Stephen Harper as much as it is they're running from the Liberals," he said, adding this was also the pattern during the June 2004 federal election.

And at some point, the focus will turn back to Harper as it did in the 2004 election, "and then we'll see if he learned anything from the last campaign," Bricker said.

The poll also revealed, however, that 46 per cent said they would trust Harper as prime minister, versus 48 per cent for Martin. 

"That Stephen Harper is now seen as relatively equivalent to Paul Martin as prime minister is a huge step up for him."

Regional results

Ontario: Canada's most populous province is a key battleground. The Liberals won 75 of their 135 seats there in 2004. The Tories took 24 Ontario ridings and the NDP seven.

Ontario's 106 seats represent about one-third of Parliament's 308 seats.

The Liberals (34 per cent, -4 points) are virtually tied with the Conservative Party (32 per cent, -2 points), while the NDP (19 per cent, +2 points) and the Green Party (10 per cent, +3 points) trail distantly.

Quebec: The Liberal Party (18 per cent, -11 points) has lost substantially while the Bloc Quebecois (48 per cent, +7 points) has made strong gains . The sovereigntist Bloc now holds a 30-point lead over the Liberals. The Conservative Party (13 per cent, +5 points) gained somewhat, while the NDP (12 per cent, +1 point) and the Green Party (6 per cent, -1 point) have remained stable.

The Bloc elected 54 MPs in Quebec in 2004, while the Liberals elected 21.

British Columbia: The Liberals (24 per cent, -16 points) have fallen sharply, as the NDP gained (34 per cent, +13 points). The Green Party (7 per cent, +3 points) and The Conservative Party (32 per cent, +1 point) have moved up slightly.

In B.C., eight Liberals, 22 Tories, five NDP and one Independent were elected last time.

Alberta: The Liberals (21 per cent, +8 points) continue to trail The Conservative Party (54 per cent, -3 points) by a large margin. The NDP (11 per cent, -6 points), and the Green Party (6 per cent, -6 points) are down somewhat.

In Alberta, two Liberals and 26 Tories were elected in 2004.

Saskatchewan/Manitoba: The NDP (23 per cent, +12 points) have gained while the other major parties have fallen somewhat: The Conservatives (31 per cent, -8 points), the Liberals (30 per cent, -6 points), and the Green Party (4 per cent, -2 points).

Those two prairie provinces sent four Liberals, 20 Conservatives and four NDP MPs to Ottawa last time.

Atlantic Canada: The Conservatives (37 per cent, +4 points) lead the Liberals (33 per cent, -14 points), while the NDP (19 per cent, +9 points) trails. The Green Party (2 per cent, -2 points) barely registers in this region.

There were 22 Liberals, seven Tories and two NDP MPs elected from that region in 2004.

Methodology

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from April 8 to 10.  For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone.  With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled.  The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population.  These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.