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Analysis: When Paul Martin meets his party

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Bill Doskoch, CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Thu. Mar. 3 2005 7:16 PM ET

When Prime Minister Paul Martin addresses the Liberal Party at its national biennial convention Friday night, he is expected to accentuate the positive. That will require he skip over some of the party's recent history.

Luck has not been on his side since Martin became prime minister on Dec. 12, 2003. But some of his problems could be seen as self-inflicted.

The sponsorship scandal is one major example. It occurred on former prime minister Jean Chretien's watch, yet that time bomb exploded on Martin's.

And if some testimony Monday from the Gomery Inquiry is accurate, Martin may have created some of his own problems.

In the fall of 2003 Martin was anxious to take the levers of power away from his old rival after battling for them for years.

According to Alex Himelfarb, the country's top civil servant, Chretien offered to stay in office until the report of Auditor General Sheila Fraser was released. He was willing to take the heat.

And the Martin team's response? "There was no response," Himelfarb said.

When Fraser's report was tabled in February 2004, about two months after Chretien retired, the Liberals' popularity went into a tailspin.

Election timing

When his government's popularity rebounded slightly, Martin called the election everyone had been anticipating. Leading up to it, there were a number of vicious nomination battles, the most notorious between a Chretien-era cabinet minister, Sheila Copps, and Martin loyalist Tony Valeri.

Martin angered some by refusing to intervene – and then circumvented the riding nomination process in other areas by appointing some star candidates. He did so despite having preached he would fix the party's "democratic deficit."

During the federal election, Martin was fortunate to escape defeat, winning 135 seats and forming a minority government. Martin later said he and his strategists knew going in that a minority government was likely.

Front bench, back bench

Even before the election, in forming his first cabinet, Martin had no room for Chretien-era ministers like John Manley, Allan Rock, Martin Cauchon and Copps.

Some Parliament watchers said the early front-bench inexperience showed. And after the election, some of the Chretien-era ministers were returned to cabinet.

But Martin still had to fire one maverick MP from his caucus – Mississauga, Ont. MP Carolyn Parrish, who was turfed after saying, "If (Martin) loses the next election and he has to resign, I wouldn't shed a tear over it."

Parrish made some outspoken statements against the United States' invasion of Iraq and its missile defence plan. She was kicked out of caucus just weeks before U.S. President George W. Bush visited Canada.

Hot-button issues

When Martin announced last week Canada wouldn't be participating in the U.S.'s missile defence plan, he was likely reading polls that suggested Canadian public opinion was strongly against it.

This was especially true in Quebec, where Martin must make big gains if he hopes to form a majority government in the next election.

Had he not taken missile defence off the table, numerous groups were going to present resolutions against it at this weekend's convention.

One controversial issue that remains on the table is same-sex marriage. The Liberals have a sizable number of MPs who are socially conservative and who oppose same-sex marriage.

Those Liberals have been offended by the youth wing's slogan on same-sex marriage: "It's the Charter, stupid."

On same-sex marriage, Martin has been resolute. When Parliament began debate, critics said Martin's speech in support of same-sex marriage as a minority rights issue was one of his best ever.

Soon after, the influential British magazine The Economist tagged him with the nickname "Mr. Dithers" -- which has been a source of glee for opposition MPs ever since.

"Mr. Martin, a successful finance minister for almost a decade until 2002, cannot quite shake off the impression that Canada's top job is too big for him," the magazine said.

While future leadership hopefuls will be working the convention, no one is predicting Martin will be punished when delegates vote on his leadership on Saturday. However, no one is expecting Martin to get near the 94 per cent endorsement when he took the party's leadership in November 2003.

His speech on Friday should give him a chance to highlight his government's successes to the party's estimated 2,000 delegates, lay out a strategic vision for the future -- and hopefully give his battered party a reason to leave its internal problems behind so it can fight the next election as a team.

And when the vote total is released Sunday afternoon, Martin will have some idea how far he's moved towards that goal.

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