As Prime Minister Paul Martin prepares to face divisive debate on same-sex marriage and the federal budget, it appears that he and his governing Liberals are making some headway.

A new poll by Ipsos-Reid/CTV/The Globe and Mail poll found that 47 per cent of those surveyed believe that the Liberals should return to power. That is a rise of 18 percentage points since last year's federal election campaign.

While the Economist magazine has dubbed Martin Mr. Dithers -- for what the magazine says is his lack of performance since the election -- he is also the top choice among respondents to be prime minister:

• Fifty-six per cent of poll respondents approve of his performance
• Almost half (49 per cent) think he's the leader Canada needs for difficult times

In comparison, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper -- the leader of the opposition -- has only 38 per cent support.

The poll also looks at how the political parties might fare if an election were held today. This is how the respondents' support would break down:

• Liberals - 37 per cent
• Conservatives - 26 per cent
• NDP - 17 per cent
• Bloc Quebecois - 10 per cent
• Green Party - seven per cent
• Others - four per cent

In Quebec, the Bloc leads the Liberals 39-34.

The federal budget will be released Wednesday. A vote on the budget is a vote of confidence in the government, so if the budget wasn't accepted by Parliament, an election could be triggered.

However, John Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos-Reid, told CTV.ca on Sunday that given the underlying dynamics of Canadian public opinion, it would be very risky for any opposition party to push for a new election at this time.

"The potential for the Liberals to go up in votes is very significant," he said.

If the opposition parties "had some hubris and felt they could topple the government ... there's a lot of potential for collateral damage."

Martin in Quebec

Downsides also exist for the Liberals.

Thirty-nine per cent of respondents say their opinion of Martin has worsened since the federal election. The prime minister is down by 10 points.

Harper is down by four points.

In comparison, Jack Layton is up 12 points and Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe up 22 points.

The latter is significant because Martin is -23 in Quebec.

"They have some problems in Quebec," Wright said about the Liberals.

For one thing, the Gomery inquiry into the federal sponsorship scandal is a bigger issue in Quebec than elsewhere in Canada, he says.

The inquiry will shift to Montreal on Feb. 28, putting even more focus on the story.

Quebec is one province where the Liberals must make a breakthrough to form a majority government.

When they did so in 2000, the Liberals won 36 seats, compared to the Bloc's 38. In 2004, the Liberals dropped to 21 seats while the Bloc rose to 54. Gaining back those 15 seats would put the Liberals within five of gaining a majority (155 of 308 seats).

The budget

The poll also asked questions about spending priorities for the federal surplus.

It gave different groups of respondents a series of paired choices on where they wanted to see the federal surplus spent.

Here was their priorities:

1. "Increase spending on health care" (66%) tops the list of Canadians surplus spending priorities; followed by
2. "Increase spending on post-secondary education" (46%);
3. "Cut taxes for middle class Canadians" (45%);
4. "Reducing the Government of Canada debt" (39%);
5. "Create a new national childcare program" (39%);
6. "Increase spending on environmental issues such as the cost of implementing the Kyoto Accord" (34%); and
7. "Increase spending on Canada's military and national defence" (27%).

Wright says he found the appetite for a middle tax cut interesting, "but that speaks more to the tactics of the government, who might try to ensure it is appealing to those individuals who might look to that kind of leadership from the Conservatives."

Defence spending is consistently ranked highly as a priority by Canadians, Wright says, yet it fared badly compared to other federal spending areas.

"What it says is the government should be making an acknowledgment, through the budget process, that the military should have some kind of increased funding. But it's not the overarching issue that's affecting Canadians."

Methodology

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CTV/The Globe And Mail poll conducted from February 15 to February 17, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2,002 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.