A day after candidates representing Iraq's Shiite Muslims won just under half the votes in the country's landmark democratic election, talks are underway to choose the country's leaders and to seek allies in hopes of forming a coalition.

Sunday's results mean the government needs to form a coalition with other major groups in the 275-member National Assembly.

On CTV's Canada AM, Mideast expert Robin Wright of the Washington Post said the deal making had already begun shortly after people went to the polls -- and that we may get an announcement on the choice of Iraq's leaders in the next couple of days.

"The prime minister will likely be Adel Abdel-Mahdi, who is with the United Iraqi Alliance, which is the Shiite dominated party. The president is likely to be a Kurd who is Jalal Talabani. These are very prominent figures in Iraqi political history, long opponents to the former president Saddam Hussein," says Wright.

The election's great irony

American and British leaders welcomed the announcement of Iraq's election results. U.S. President George W. Bush praised the 8.5 million Iraqis who "defied terrorists and went to the polls" and said allies forces "can all take pride in our role in making that great day possible."

Wright points out, however, that one of the "greatest ironies" of the U.S. intervention is that it hoped for a secular party in power "that would be a counterweight to neighbouring Iran."

"But instead, Iraqis went to the poll and elected primarily parties that are very close to Iran -- both the Shiites and the Kurds."

She added that Iyad Allawi, Iraq's interim prime minister who the U.S. and Britain installed into power seven months ago and had high hopes for, "came in a dismal third" in the Jan. 30 election.

Shiite candidates received 4.075 million votes or about 48 per cent (12 short of the 60 per cent the alliance was hoping for); while Kurds received 2.175 million or 26 per cent; and Allawi's list received 1.168 million votes, or about 14 per cent, in the nation's first democratic vote in half a century.

About 58 per cent of Iraq's 14 million eligible voters cast ballots, officials said.

Iraq's Sunni Arabs largely boycotted the voting. The numbers indicate that only two per cent of Sunnis cast votes in the National Assembly race in Anbar province, a Sunni-Muslim stronghold.

Turnout was also low in the Sunni Arab provinces of Ninevah and Salaheddin, both insurgency centres.

Wright says the new government will likely reach out to the Sunnis by not only including them in the critical process of writing a new constitution, but also give them some of the cabinet posts to ensure that the Sunnis feel they are a part of this new government and not on the margins.

"And not isolated enough that they might fuel a new wave of the insurgency."

The constitution

The next crucial step in the process is the forming of a constitution, which Wright calls an "extraordinary process that really only has six months to take shape." She notes that if the Iraqis don't come up with one by August, "the election at the end of this year will not be for a permanent government, it will be to elect a new national assembly that will start this whole process of writing a constitution all over again next year."

She see two the main issues which will determine the success of the forming of a new constitution:

1) The role of Islam in the Constitution in Iraq law -- and whether it will be a source, or the source of law.

2) Whether the Kurds get a self-ruled federalism that will allow them to keep their cultural identity, which will be a critical factor for them to stay in Iraq.

Other news:

• Insurgents did not quail from the nod to democracy. Saboteurs blew up an oil pipeline in the northern oilfields of Iraq on Monday, setting it on fire. Police say the attack occurred at the North Oil Company's Al-Dibbis oilfield near Kirkuk.
• Kidnappers of a Swedish citizen in Iraq have demanded a ransom for his freedom and threatened to decapitate him if they don't receive it, a radio station reported Monday.
• Turkey criticized the elections in Iraq, saying they failed to produce a parliament truly representative of the people because of low turnout in some areas.

With files from The Associated Press