The Conservative Party is within striking distance of forming a minority government, says a new poll. It is essentially tied with the Liberals nationally, and leads in Ontario for the first time in 19 years.

"The Liberals are falling through the floor. In effect, we have a new frontrunner," said Craig Oliver, CTV News's Ottawa bureau chief.

"Liberals have not done this badly in Ontario, where elections are won or lost, since 1984 when Brian Mulroney swept aside John Turner's Liberals."

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, asked respondents: Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

The Liberals and Conservatives are in a virtual tie, with 32 per cent and 31 per cent support respectively. That is down two points for the Liberals and up one percentage for the Conservatives since the last poll released Monday night.

The last time the Liberals were at 32 per cent in the opinion polls was in January 1991.

Jack Layton's New Democrats are up one point at 17 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois have 11 per cent of the national decided support. In Quebec, the Bloc is up one point at 45 per cent, while the Liberals are down one point, to 28 per cent.

Jim Harris and the Green Party are unchanged at six per cent decided voter support. In British Columbia, the party has gone up two points to 13 per cent support. As well, the seat-projection model prepared by Ipsos-Reid suggests it has the potential to take two seats there.
 
Three per cent of those polled said they would vote for some "other" party and 11 per cent were undecided or would not vote, down one per cent.

If the election were held tomorrow, a seat projection model prepared by Ipsos-Reid based on these numbers suggest the potential for:

• Liberals: 115 to 119 seats
• Conservatives: 110 to 114 seats
• NDP: 17 to 21 seats
• Bloc: 56 to 60 seats
• Green Party: two seats

A party would need to get a minimum of 155 seats in the House in order to form a majority government.

Ontario stronghold

Ontario, once a Liberal stronghold, has now become Conservative territory. It holds about one-third of all 308 seats, and could possibly decide the outcome of the June 28 vote.

According to the poll, the Conservatives are at 35 per cent, down one point, while the Liberals are down four points to 32 per cent -- a plunge of 17 per cent in three weeks. The NDP is up two points at 23 per cent.

This is the first time since June 1985 that the federal Conservatives appear to lead the federal Liberals in Ontario.

The seat-projection model prepared by Ipsos-Reid suggest the Conservatives would get between 46 and 50 seats in Ontario, compared to the Liberal projection of between 49 and 53 seats. The NDP would get between 5 to 9 seats.

The Liberals continue to hold a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada, with 46 per cent of the decided vote, down two points. The Conservatives follow with 31 per cent of decided voter support and the NDP is third with 21 per cent support.

Momentum

With respect to respondents' opinions of various parties and their leaders, they were asked: Now, overall would you say your opinion of this party leader has improved, worsened, or stayed the same over the last few weeks?

For Harper and the Conservatives: 32 per cent said their opinion had improved over the last few weeks; 18 per cent said it had worsened; 40 per cent said it "stayed the same"

For Layton and the NDP: 28 per cent said it had improved; 13 per cent said it had worsened; 44 per cent said it "stayed the same"

For Martin and the Liberals: 13 per cent said their opinion had improved; 48 per cent said it worsened; 34 per cent said it "stayed the same"

For Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc: 23 per cent said it had improved; seven per cent said it worsened; 61 per cent said it "stayed the same"

Layton appears to lead the other leaders in highest gap momentum. This is calculated by subtracting the percentage of people who say their opinion has worsened over the last few weeks from the percentage who say their opinion has improved over the last few weeks.

• Layton: +15 points
• Harper: +14 points
• Martin: -35 points
• Duceppe: +16 points in Quebec

Layton and the NDP have the strongest momentum in Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives are building on their lead in Alberta. Martin and the Liberals have negative momentum in every region of the country.

"It's not as if Mr. Martin has been campaigning badly; on the contrary, he's been campaigning well," Oliver said.

"It's just that nobody is paying any attention. They're not paying any attention to Martin's good days or Harper's bad days. They're focused on anger and they're focused on the need for change, and Harper doesn't scare them."

The fight is shaping up to be one of two visions of Canada: "It's a question of big government versus small government, if you like," he said.

"I think if that begins to focus itself ... the Liberals can hope their social agenda will be preferred and they've got a chance. But it's not looking very good for them tonight," Oliver said.

Should the Liberals lead?

Respondents were also asked: Now, some people say that in the up-coming federal election the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin, others say that the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country. Which statement is closest to your opinion?

Three in ten Canadians, or 29 per cent, said the Liberals do deserve to be re-elected. That number is unchanged from the previous poll.

In comparison, 64 per cent of Canadians responded that the Liberals do not deserve to be re-elected, down two points from the previous poll.

Agreement with the statement that "the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected" is highest in Quebec, with 70 per cent, followed by Alberta with 69 per cent.

Respondents in Atlantic Canada were most likely to say the Liberals do deserve another chance, with 40 per cent, followed at 36 per cent by Saskatchewan/Manitoba.

This telephone survey was conducted between June 1st and 3rd. A representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

With a report from CTV's Tom Clark