A new poll has found Ontario's Liberals are headed toward a majority government that could exceed David Peterson's 1987 landslide victory that swept the Liberals into office with a huge majority.

The Liberals have the support of 50 per cent of respondents, while the Conservatives trail with 33 per cent, according to the Ipsos-Reid survey conducted for CFTO, Newstalk 1010 CFRB and The Globe and Mail.

Heading into Tuesday night's leaders' debate, with less than two weeks to go before election day, it would appear the premier's office is Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty's to lose.

"Barring a major gaffe or a setback of a tremendous circumstances next week, the Liberals are poised to sweep into a majority government -- probably larger than David Peterson's in 1987 where he took almost 75 per cent of the seats in the House," Ipsos-Reid's John Wright told CFTO News.

The NDP (12 per cent) remains far behind, while the Green Party (4 per cent) continues to receive some support among voters, according to the poll.

Fifteen percent of the electorate is undecided, down two points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll released last week. That poll showed the Liberals with 49 per cent support, the Tories with 35 per cent and the NDP at 12 per cent.

It's received wisdom the leaders' performance in the debate can make or break the election campaign for their party.

Heading into this debate, which two-thirds (64 per cent) of Ontarians say they are likely to watch all or part of, the expectation of who will win is split between the Tory Ernie Eves and McGuinty.

"The issue for the debate is really the focus on Ernie Eves. Not only are we expecting the premier to try to step up to the plate to deal with Dalton McGuinty, who is a lot more polished this time out ... Mr. Eves has got to get that vote out. He's got to make sure they don't feel that it's so disheartening that it's not worth voting," Wright said.

While one in three (34 per cent) feel Eves will win, just as many (31 per cent) expect McGuinty to emerge victorious. Only about 11 per cent of Ontarians expect the NDP's Howard Hampton to win the debate, while 18 per cent are unsure and 6 per cent say none of the leaders will emerge as the winner.

As for the overall election environment, it would appear the Liberals' theme of "Choose Change" is trumping the Conservatives' theme of leadership and experience.

Eves (37 per cent) is still the top choice as the leader that would make "the best premier." McGuinty (30 per cent) and Hampton (13 per cent) trailed Eves on this question.

Last week's poll showed 36 per cent for Eves, 31 per cent for McGuinty and 16 per cent for Hampton.

But, these numbers may be tempered by the finding that 60 per cent of Ontarians continue to feel it's time for another party to take over and run the province. Just 32 per cent, down one point form last week's sounding, feel the Tory government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected.

Turning to the future, one in four (27 per cent) Ontarians feel the province would be better off with McGuinty as premier. This compares to 19 per cent who feel Ontario would be better off with Eves and 17 per cent who hold this view of Hampton.

On the flip side, just 21 per cent say the province would be worse off in four years time with McGuinty as premier, compared to 30 per cent for Eves and 36 per cent for Hampton.

These are the findings of the Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between Sept. 18 and Sept. 20, 2003. Results are considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.