General consensus pegs this category as a two-woman rematch of the 1999 showdown that pitted a gender-bending Hilary Swank against the suburban energy of Annette Bening. Although Bening was heavily favoured for her role in American Beauty that year, Swank took the prize for her part in Boys Don't Cry.

This time round, Bening's chance for comeuppance might be thwarted by the wickedly comic nature of her role, and the fact Oscar tends not to favour less-than-earnest lead roles (Forrest Gump aside).

If the Academy is in a serious mood, it could favour Catalina Sandino Moreno portrayal of an emotionally battered drug mule in Maria Full of Grace. But Moreno's youth (she's 23) and the fact the film is in Spanish with English subtitles diminish the Colombian actress' chances.

Moreno, Bening and Swank might all be left sharing mutual disappointment though, if the Academy sticks with its past affinity for British actors. In that case, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind star Kate Winslet or Vera Drake lead Imelda Staunton could stand a chance.

Given the Oscar's proclivity for heavier dramatic fare, Winslet may suffer the same fate as Bening. So, chalk this one up to veteran British actress Staunton and her portrayal of a housekeeper who performs illegal abortions as a surprise win.