Some years, Oscar's top race comes down not to which movie really was the best film of the year but to who really simply deserves the biggest prize - and friends, this is just one of those years. Mystic River may have featured explosive performances from one of the heaviest "above the title" casts in recent memory, but the time has come for Lord of the Rings to finally be crowned king.

Clocking in at a draggy three hours and twenty minutes, The Return of the King - though visually spectacular -- may not have been the jewel in the trilogy's crown. But after three years in the Best Picture running, the growing feeling following its big win at the Golden Globes, is that this is the year for Lord of the Rings to finally reign.

With 10 nominations, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World has probably seen as much high-profile recognition as it's going to get this year. While Peter Weir did score a directing nod for this seafaring adventure, the fact that it failed to pick up nominations in the screenplay and acting categories, suggests that this ship is going down.

Don't expect Seabiscuit to be this year's dark horse in the running either - it's rare for a summer movie to gallop away with the big prize, and this film failed to pick up critical nominations in acting or directing categories.

Finally, while Lost in Translation may be more whimsy than the typical Oscar fare, don't expect it to get lost in the shuffle. It was a favourite at this year's Golden Globes - picking up best comedy and screenplay awards along with best actor in a comedy for Bill Murray - and while Sofia Coppola won't likely walk home with the biggest prize of the night, expect her to pick up a gold statuette in another category as a very nice consolation prize.