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"American Gangster" will be released on DVD February 19th.

Oscar DVD darlings

by Constance Droganes

Oscar picks will produce top DVD picks in 2008. But not every Academy Award contender will turn into DVD gold.

“The more nominations and Oscar wins a movie has usually translates into a better performance on DVD because of the credibility,” says Abelardo Conde, Vice President of merchandise at Blockbuster Canada.

Think of “Pan’s Labyrinth,” a film that won three Oscars in 2007. “If it hadn’t done that, “Pan’s Labyrinth” would never have had the performance that it did on DVD,” says Conde. “The Oscars helped audiences discover this small but wonderful movie right away.”

Some Oscar-lauded films, too, such as 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” seem destined for DVD mega-millions. Yet surprisingly they fail.

“That movie had everything going for it - a great cast, an amazing director. It had good reviews all over the place. But when it was first released on DVD in the U.K. it did very badly,” says Conde. “Who could have imagined “Shakespeare in Love” doing badly in England of all places? But it did.”

The film’s mystifying DVD failure continued in Australia and Mexico, where it also underperformed.

“Probably “Shakespeare in Love” wasn’t a title for broad audiences,” says Conde. “Probably some of its Oscar buzz was lost because it was released a few months after the Academy Awards.  Its Oscar momentum had clearly been lost.”

As Conde says, “The longer a DVD release is delayed the likelihood of success diminishes.”

His recipe for success? Release those Oscar gems on DVD either shortly before or after the Academy Awards. “People are talking about them then. They’re wondering who will win or who should have lost,” says Conde. “Launching these films months later fails to maximize that Oscar PR blitz."

Size matters
Ultimately, the real DVD effect an Oscar win or nomination can have depends on the size of the movie itself says Conde.

“If you have a huge movie at the box office - one like “Juno” which succeeded because of its quality and word of mouth - then an Oscar can help,” says Conde.  “But even if the Academy had ignored this sleeper hit, it wouldn’t have mattered. It would still have done very well.”

As Conde says, “I am Legend” is going to be massive on DVD despite being the archetype of non-award-earning movies. If it’s already a huge blockbuster, having an Oscar won’t generate the same effect on DVD.”

DVD darlings?

“Atonement”
Earning $40 million at North American box offices to date, “Atonement” did better in theatres than expected given its genre. “A lot of movie clientele today is under 30, so genre films like this generally don’t do well with that age segment,” says Conde. Yet with Keira Knightley and James McAvoy as the film’s headliners DVD expectations are high. “These stars are very hot right now and the movie has got great word of mouth,” says Conde. “It may face competition from other DVD titles. But it should still be a big sell.”

“Juno”
The sleeper hit of the year, “Juno” has currently raked in $110 million at North American box offices. “Here is an example of a movie that will do well on DVD even if it came out more than two months after the Oscars,” says Conde. With a broad target audience and phenomenal word of mouth, “Most age groups feel comfortable seeing “Juno” because it’s so well written. It should be a huge hit on DVD.”

Slugs vs. thugs: “Michael Clayton” takes on “American Gangster”
Despite its mixed reviews, “Michael Clayton” should still do reasonably well on DVD. “The big problem with “Michael Clayton” is that it’s being released on DVD at the same time as “American Gangster,” says Conde. “We expect “American Gangster” to become one of the most rented films of the year."
The reason? Denzel Washington. “Everything that man touches turns to gold on DVD. Also Russell Crowe is a great renter, too,” says Conde. “We may not know which of these films will win the Oscar. But we know who is going to win on DVD.”

Old Men vs. New Blood
Raking in $54 million to date at North American box offices, DVD expectations are huge for “No Country for Old Men,” but more so as a DVD rental than a retail sale. “It’s slow. It’s weird. It’s not necessarily a movie people will buy and see more than once,” says Conde. “But with the Coen brothers behind it and lots of Oscar buzz, it will be another top 10 DVD of the year.”

Like “No Country for Old Men,” Oscar contender “There Will Be Blood” isn’t for everybody says Conde. Earning just $16 million at North American box offices, this dark tale isn’t one most DVD renters or purchasers would choose to brighten up a party. Yet with its quality and Oscar heat, Conde says, “We’re buying it at two or three times the box office numbers would indicate.”

DVD D-day

February 5

  • “Across the Universe” (Two-Disc Special Edition)
  • “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford” (Special Edition, Blu-ray)
  • “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” (Widescreen Edition)

February 19

  • “American Gangster” (HD DVD, Standard DVD, Two-Disc Collector’s Edition, Three-Disc Deluxe Edition)
  • “Michael Clayton” (Widescreen Edition)
  • “Lust, Caution” (Widescreen NC-17 Edition) 
  • “In the Valley of Elah” (Combo HD DVD and Standard DVD)

March 4

  • “Into the Wild”

March 11

  • “No Country for Old Men” (Blu-ray)

March 18

  • “Atonement”

April 22

  • “Juno”
  • “The Savages”

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