When U.S. President George W. Bush takes to the podium Thursday night to formally accept the Republican Party's nomination as its presidential candidate, he does so knowing he is loved and loathed by the U.S. voting public in almost equal measure.

His challenge during his acceptance speech is to reach the five to 10 per cent of voters still considered to be undecided in this highly polarized campaign –- especially the undecideds in the 15 so-called "battleground states."

By most analysts' calculations, there are about one million of those people in a nation of 294 million. The voting age population is about 205 million.

Karen Hughes, one of Bush's top advisers, dropped some hints of what he'll say. In a speech-editing session Friday, Bush told his team to emphasize the "transformational power of liberty" in fighting terrorism, she told reporters Saturday.

With the Manhattan skyline as a backdrop, Vice President Dick Cheney said Sunday: "My job here this week and in the two months ahead, is to tell people all across America about how strong and steadfast our president is, how kind and compassionate."

And during his speech on Wednesday, Cheney attacked Democratic nominee John Kerry as a weak, indecisive flip-flopper who would be soft on defence in general and the war on terror in particular. He was joined by Sen. Zell Miller, a very conservative Democrat, who accused Kerry of voting against most major new weapons programs and his party of characterizing U.S. troops in Iraq as occupiers and not liberators.

At a speech on Saturday in Ohio –- one of the battleground states -- Bush talked of his desire to improve education. "We're closing the achievement gap in America, but there's more to do," he said in his 22nd visit there as president.

And in media interviews in recent days, Bush has displayed a previously hidden capacity for humility. He told NBC's Today show on Monday that John Kerry's military service was "more heroic" than his own, adding that the election was really about who has the best plan for the next four years. Bush also made a rare mis-step by saying he didn't think the war on terror could be won; a position he reversed on Tuesday.

While he has steadfastly defended his decision to invade Iraq, in an interview Friday with the New York Times, Bush said he "miscalculated" what the post-war conditions would be in Iraq. He claimed the "swift victory" allowed Iraqi troops to slip away and mount a rebellion.

It's not much, but it's a tacit concession to the reality that a majority of Americans now think the Iraq war was a mistake, according to opinion polls.

Bush's job

Keeping the right happy

Besides defending his war record, Bush also has to say a few things to his social conservative supporters, Deen says. "He doesn't want to alienate the religious right, because while they have nowhere else to go, he can't afford for them to stay home."

As a result, "you're going to hear ban on gay marriage, pro-life messages. But he can't spend too much time there because then he runs the risk of alienating swing voters and more moderate states," she said.

David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, a battleground state, said polls show the undecided voters in battleground states like Kerry better on all issues except the war on terror and likeability.

"The people who are undecided voters are generally people who are not well-informed about politics, who are not following the issues very closely. And often times, they're going to make their choices based upon the likeability factor," he said.

"We have the view in this country that politicians are supposed to be like us. 'Maybe I don't know about all these issues, but if I can trust that person's judgment … I'll put my faith in that person'."

For that reason, despite the polls and trends pointing to a Kerry win, Schultz thinks Bush will win on Nov. 2.

Richard Conley, a University of Florida political scientist, says for that to happen, Bush has to get his base out.

"There are many Republicans -- including myself –- who are upset with his notions of pre-emptive warfare. He's got to be careful to lure those voters back into the big tent."

The U.S. has lost an estimated net 1.8 million jobs since Bush took office. Despite increased federal spending, Bush promoted huge tax cuts, which some say is why the U.S. currently has a ballooning federal budget deficit.

"I think he's got to appeal to the positives … but I think he does have some problems on this front," Conley said, adding that a low-tax message does sell in Florida, which is one of the key battleground states.

Schultz said Americans like their leaders to give a sunny, optimistic view of the future. "Bush has a bad record, but he'll come across looking like an optimist," he said. While Bush's "we're turning the corner" line of early August won't be used, he thought there would be copious use of "'I won't be happy until ...'."

But he thinks the whole convention will make Bush look likeable while still being a strong leader on national security issues and the war on terror. Spending too much time on the economy would be a mistake, Schultz said.

Asked how important this speech was to Bush, Deen brought up the example of the orchestra pit.

"You go to the theatre, and if the conductor fell in the orchestra pit, that's what you remember, even it if was a wonderful performance. I think if he does badly, it could impact the rest of the campaign."