Are we ready for a flu pandemic?

By Angela Mulholland, CTV.ca News

It’s no secret that the world is overdue for an influenza epidemic. Epidemiologists have been warning for years that it’s just a matter of time before a new strain of the flu emerges that has the potential to kill millions.

Could the bird flu moving rapidly through Asia be that strain? Researchers aren’t sure but think it’s quite possible.

The H5N1 virus strain has killed millions of domestic and wild birds in Asia and has spread to mammals such as cats and pigs. It’s also killed more than 50 humans since an outbreak began almost two years ago.

What has epidemiologists worried is that the H5N1 strain may also be beginning to find a way to transmit human to human -- though researchers are wary of confirming that. There have been at least two cases in recent months in which someone with close contact with an infected patient came down the flu themselves, despite having no contact with infected birds.

Also worrying are the similarities this flu has with the last two flu pandemics of the last 100 years -- the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemics. Both began in Asia as avian influenzas that eventually took on genes from a human influenza virus.

Shigeru Omi, the head of the World Health Organization in Asia, believes it’s "highly likely" the H5N1 Asian bird flu will be the source of the next pandemic, unless concerted action is taken to eradicate it.

Yet controlling the Asian bird flu quickly seems unlikely. Just a year ago, experts in Asia spoke confidently about eradicating the virus. They now say it could take years to eliminate and admit they are struggling just to contain the disease.

If the H5N1 bird flu strain does “learn” to efficiently pass between humans, it could begin spreading rapidly like the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed more than 20 million people. The World Health Organization has warned that even in the best case scenario, the next pandemic will likely kill 2 to 7 million people.

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