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After bin Laden: The view from India
Janis Mackey Frayer, South Asia Bureau Chief, CTV News
Date: Thursday May. 5, 2011 7:18 AM ET
NEW DELHI The compound in Abbottabad where Osama bin Laden lived undetected for years has been stripped of any compelling evidence. What the team of U.S. commandos did not take with the al Qaeda leader's body the night they killed him has been carted away by the Pakistani authorities who knew of the raid only when it was over.
The U.S. operation targeting bin Laden took just 40 minutes to complete and ended a decade-long manhunt for the world's best-known symbol of contemporary evil. Pakistan is now having to navigate the embarrassment that bin Laden was not only living on its soil but doing so rather comfortably near retired army officers and the country's largest military training centre.
Neighbours told reporters the compound showed a pattern of life that suggested its occupants did not have jobs. Food and supplies were dropped at the door. Barbed wire and security cameras topped the villa's surrounding walls. The sequestered house commanded the curiosity of locals but apparently never that of Pakistan's security establishment.
For India and Afghanistan the triumph stirred by the bin Laden news was less about his demise than where it happened. It confirmed -- even vindicated -- what the two countries have long claimed about Pakistan: That at worst, its military-intelligence complex colluded to protect bin Laden and at best officials were aware of his presence. There is not a strong belief that a third explanation is possible.
"This proves what India has been saying for quite some time," said Bahukutumbi Raman, a former Indian intelligence officer and counter-terrorism expert, "That Pakistan is giving shelter and assistance to terrorists and they are proved correct."
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since Partition in 1947 and they are still at armed odds over the disputed region of Kashmir (over which they both lay claim). The long-nurtured distrust only deepened after the November 2008 attacks on Mumbai when Pakistani militants killed more than 160 people. It galvanized the belief here that Pakistan was a sanctuary for extremists where authorities turned a blind eye, and that India would be susceptible to further attacks if countries like the U.S. did not do more to police its ally.
Recent months have brought a more conciliatory tone to Indo-Pak relations as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has encouraged dialogue in what remains a troubled neighbourhood. A lot was made of the so-called 'cricket diplomacy' initiative weeks ago when Singh invited his Pakistani counterpart, Yusuf Raza Gilani, to watch a World Cup match between the two teams.
There have also been sideline talks between ministers who talk publicly of rapprochement, even as critics of Singh's agenda insist there should be not be until Pakistan prosecutes every planner and perpetrator of the 2008 attacks. Still, Singh has inched toward accepting Pakistan as a partner in better relations.
Now this.
Following the news of bin Laden's death in Pakistan, Singh released a brief statement that called it "significant" but was careful to avoid language that might reveal any diminished trust that would fuel his critics. As far as future talks go he is unlikely to change his tack.
"I don't expect any change in the state-to-state relationship," said Raman, who is director of the Institute for Topical Studies in Chennai, "But it will be much more difficult for Pakistan to avert any request from India."
The Indian press however is less nuanced and has made a parade of condemning headlines like "Pak Stands Accused" and "Livid U.S. wants to choke Pak Aid." (Bear in mind that criticism of Pakistan is as much a part of the news narrative here as stories of India's corruption scandals and ballooning inflation.)
For India, the concern now is whether bin Laden's death may prove a trigger for the United States to alter the pace or scope of its troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. A quick retreat risks disruption and creating a vacuum along an arc of nuclear-armed adversaries and militant networks, including the Taliban and al Qaeda.
Afghanistan has long been one of those crossroads where regional powers wage proxy fights and trade accusations of geopolitical influence peddling. India is among the country's biggest donors, having spent more than a billion dollars on building projects. Pakistan sees it as interference.
"If the U.S. left lock, stock and barrel, India would be left to pick up the pieces," said Harsh V. Pant of King's College London, according to Reuters.
India, Pakistan and Afghanistan will all have views (no doubt conflicting) on when and how quickly troops should leave Central Asia. Public opinion in the U.S. is likely to be a major factor, as Barack Obama seeks a second term as president while juggling a bruised economy and fatigue with an unpopular and costly war.
In the meantime, the U.S. will also be asking tough questions about how the world's most wanted terrorist could be cradled in Pakistan for so long. The answers may be punctuated with cuts in direct aid to Pakistan.
"Pakistan is deceiving the West," Kabul-based analyst Haroun Mir told me, "Still Canada, the United States and Europe are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Pakistan for development and most of this money is sustaining the Pakistani military."
A fuller history of how Osama bin Laden eluded capture and enjoyed his affluent anonymity will take shape in the days, weeks and months ahead. His al Qaeda sympathizers are, for now, warning of revenge and there is reason to believe they will make good on the threat.
Still most of the world is relieved bin Laden is dead and catharsis can take many forms. As one Afghan official put it upon learning the news: "Finally Pakistan is exposed."
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