World -   

1

Experts hope quake is 'eyeopener' of risks to B.C.

Grade 1 student, six-year-old Joseph Kim, takes cover under his desk during an earthquake drill at Hollyburn Elementary School in West Vancouver, B.C., on Wednesday January 26, 2011. (Darryl Dyck / THE CANADIAN PRESS)
Grade 1 student, six-year-old Joseph Kim, takes cover under his desk during an earthquake drill at Hollyburn Elementary School in West Vancouver, B.C., on Wednesday January 26, 2011. (Darryl Dyck / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

View Larger Image

A A |  Email ThisEmail  | Print Facebook   

Date: Monday Mar. 14, 2011 7:44 AM ET

VANCOUVER — While nearly half a million British Columbians ducked, covered and held on tight during a province-wide earthquake drill in late January, the other 90 per cent of the population sailed on with their day as usual.

After last week's destructive earthquake and tsunami in Japan, authorities hope the gravity of being prepared for a potential natural disaster on the West Coast hits closer to home.

"We're no different if we were to have an 8.9-magnitude, megathrust subduction-type earthquake here," said Heather Lyle, director of integrated public safety for Emergency Management B.C. "We too would suffer significant impact. I'm quite certain this is an eyeopener."

Were the so-called Big One to land a one-two punch starting about 250 kilometres off Vancouver Island shores, Victoria and about 75 coastal and First Nations communities would be the most vulnerable.

From the moment they felt the earth expel its great rumble, people living in places like Ucluelet, a tourist town along the Island's outer coast, would likely have only about 20 to 30 minutes to escape to higher grounds.

In the popular surfing destination of Tofino, about an hour's drive north, the urgency wouldn't change, but getting to safety would be hampered by long stretches of low-lying beach.

"There are communities for which evacuation may not be an option," said Prof. Barbara Lence, at the University of B.C., who has helmed teams that created computer models of potential tsunamis that could wind up deluging those parts of the Island.

The lurking cause of a massive quake and wave on the West Coast is called the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a region stretching 1,100 kilometres from about two-thirds of Vancouver Island south to Mendocino, California. Should it rupture, an event likely every 300 to 600 years, the land mass could ultimately shift one to 1.5 metres west.

Its last burst was in 1700.

Lence and Bill Johnstone, with Spatial Vision Group in North Vancouver, brought the results of their models to Ucluelet and described the people's reactions as "sobering."

"I guess it dispelled quite a number of myths," Lence said, explaining waves could reach 15 metres in height even though the name of the town means "safe harbour."

Johnstone said once people in such regions manage to withstand heavy trembles, as practised in the earthquake drill, they must make a decision based on the structure of the building.

"You don't stay put, you get up and go," he said, while noting "vertical evacuation" offered by specially-designed buildings was a safeguard present in Japan that Canadians may want to further explore.

Bustling Vancouver would be shielded from water wipe out by Vancouver Island, but also faces the threat of shallow, crustral earthquakes that occur more frequently at lower magnitudes and have the potential to cause more damage, said Perry Adebar, a UBC professor of structural engineering.

Though the province has invested hundreds of millions of dollars retrofitting schools, bridges and other public buildings, he's greatly concerned that thousands of multi-storey, privately-owned buildings weren't build to a code that will hold up in a quake.

"It's all a matter of how intense the ground is shaking," Adebar said. "I actually am the person who hopes for an earthquake that scares everybody and does some damage because we'd be far further ahead ... (for) the possibility of larger earthquakes."

Fortifying existing structures with concrete or more walls to reduce how much they would sway would go a long way to making them safer, he said.

After the Japan quake, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson was widely quoted saying buildings in the city are indeed vulnerable.

From the federal government to the province to individual communities, there are a multitude of emergency response plans in place, though the level of preparedness ranges.

A provincial autodialer that makes 1000 calls in 20 minutes to key stakeholders from RCMP to the coast guard activates in crucial situations, and hundreds of emails and faxes are sent immediately as well, said Kelli Kryzanowski, manager of catastrophic disaster planning with Emergency Management B.C.

But British Columbians should at least be ready to go 72 hours alone, her colleague Lyle noted, while currently in Japan its estimated help for some people may not arrive for an entire week. The province would have to prioritize its resources, and could be further delayed if landslides are triggered on the island and power is knocked out.

Kryzanowski said she hopes recent disasters around the world -- from Chile to New Zealand to Japan -- prompts the public to put preparedness front of mind.

"I think we're starting to become more and more aware that this can happen to us," she said. "We need to experience something to really understand it and that is a challenge we have."

Share with your social Network:

Facebook DIGG Newsvine Delicious Twitter StumbeUpon Reddit Yahoo! Buzz

 

Advertisement

Contest

Earthquake in Japan

Courtesy of DigitalGlobe

Fukushima Timeline

What happened to set off the nuclear crisis underway at Fukushima.

Canine Comfort in Crisis

Canine Comfort in Crisis

In Pictures: Four-legged friends offer comfort for Japanese quake victims.

Shelter Life

Shelter Life

50 Pictures: Quake victims and evacuees cope with living in shelters.

Mass Exodus

Mass Exodus

25 Pictures: Residents and foreigners use any means available to flee Japan.

The Nuclear Crisis

The Nuclear Crisis

A reactor-by-reactor breakdown of the troubled Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station.

How Canadians Can Help

How Canadians Can Help

Government of Canada advice on helping Japan, with tips on what's needed, list of aid groups.

Radiation Levels

Radiation Levels

Worried about radiation spreading to your part of the world? Don't be.

Radiation Sickness

Radiation Sickness

Exposure to radiation can lead to thyroid cancer, among other illnesses.

Infographic

Infographic

A map showing location of reactors involved in Japan's nuclear crisis

The 8.9-magnitude quake moved Japan's main island by more than two metres, in addition to shifting Earth on its axis and briefly speeding up its rotation.

Seismic Shift

Quake shifted Japan's main island and sped up the Earth's rotation.

Quake Storified

Quake Storified

Online reaction in the wake of the 8.9 magnitude earthquake.

Tsunami Speed

Tsunami Speed

The tsunami roared through the Pacific at speeds comparable to a jumbo jet.

Today's World Stories

Former Liberian President Charles Taylor waits for the start of his sentencing judgement in the courtroom of the Special Court for Sierra Leone in Leidschendam, near The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday May 30, 2012.  (AP / Toussaint Kluiters)

Charles Taylor gets 50 years for 'brutal' crimes

More   5 Comments 5    2 Video(s) 2

This frame grab made from an amateur video provided by Syrian activists on Monday, May 28, 2012, purports to show the massacre in Houla on May 25 that killed more than 100 people, many of them children. (AP / Amateur Video via AP video)

UN observers in Syria discover 13 bound corpses

More

Pakistani doctor Shakil Afridi taken in Pakistani tribal area of Jamrud in Khyber region, July 9, 2010. (AP / Qazi Rauf)

Pakistan doctor guilty of militancy, not CIA links

More

Most Talked about Stories

While Branson's comments (and activities) are arrogant in a million different ways, Clark's response was admirable. She kept her sense of humour with her joke about Branson's brand-name and his bad pick-up line, showing why humour is often the best response to arrogance.

D Austin (Fredericton)

B.C. premier rebuffs Branson's naked kitesurfing invite