Ahead of this evening's budget tests, the two Independent MPs who potentially control the government's fate are hinting they'll split the confidence vote.

When asked Wednesday night whether he's leaning towards voting against the Liberals in the pair of non-confidence budget motions, Independent MP David Kilgour didn't mince words.

"Yeah," he said in an interview on CTV's COUNTDOWN with Mike Duffy Wednesday night. "Frankly I wasn't very pleased with what happened (Tuesday)."

Belinda Stronach grabbed headlines Tuesday with her surprise decision to abandon the Conservatives for a seat in Prime Minister Paul Martin's cabinet.

Earlier, Kilgour refused to be drawn into the furor over Stronach's move, choosing instead to couch his reaction.

"My mother told me if you haven't something good to say, you shouldn't say anything at all," he told Canada AM from Ottawa. "I think probably the less I say about Belinda Stronach the better."

Kilgour wasn't afraid to speak his mind on another subject, however, writing in a Globe and Mail opinion piece criticizing the government's stance on the war-torn Darfur region of Sudan.

The former Tory-turned-Liberal became an independent in April, citing a to-do list of priority issues.

At the top of his list was a commitment to Sudan. He has since suggested his support for the Liberals in a confidence vote is tied to the deployment of at least 500 Canadian troops to Sudan.

"Either the government is ignorant of the fact -- or wishes to deny -- that the military dictatorship in Sudan is complicit with the atrocities taking place in Darfur, or Prime Minister Paul Martin's commitments to Darfur were knee-jerk reactions, inspired by the current political crisis in Canada," Kilgour wrote in the Globe.

Independent MP Chuck Cadman says his support doesn't hinge on any demands. He admits having coffee with Martin on Monday, but they only discussed their positions, not deals.

"No offers made, nothing put on the table," he told CTV. "I didn't demand anything."

Instead, Cadman says the primary factor that will sway his vote is still the will of voters in his Surrey, B.C. riding. Based on his most recent poll of constituents, he says two-thirds have indicated they don't want to go the polls anytime soon.

"I have put a lot of stock in what my constituents say," he said in an interview via CTV's exclusive "Cadman Cam" Wednesday night.

Reading between the lines, CTV's chief political correspondent Craig Oliver said it appears Cadman will vote with the government.

"The Conservatives have lost Cadman and they have lost their chance to bring down the government," Oliver said late Wednesday night.

Oliver's prediction comes after Stronach's defection gave the combined Liberal and NDP block 151 votes versus the 152 of the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois.

Of the three Independent MPs, ex-Liberal Carolyn Parrish is expected to vote with her former party.

If Cadman and Kilgour split the vote as expected, it would be up to Speaker of the House Peter Milliken to cast the deciding ballot.

Typically, the Speaker votes to keep government in operation.

If the government loses either vote, Martin would have to visit the Governor General to request the writ be dropped for a summer election.

In that event, campaign buses are expected to hit the road Friday, to kick off five-weeks on the hustings leading up to a nationwide vote on June 27.

With files from CTV News and The Canadian Press