JOHANNESBURG, South Africa — The government of President Robert Mugabe has hand-picked observers for Zimbabwe's upcoming parliamentary vote in what critics call a shallow and transparent attempt to restore legitimacy to the country's discredited democracy.

It has systematically barred observer missions from countries and groups that said elections in 2000 and 2002 were flawed and probably stolen by Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party amid massive vote-rigging and state-sponsored violence and intimidation.

Observers for the March 31 elections have been invited from generally pro-Mugabe African states such as South Africa, friendly countries such as China, Iran and Venezuela, and from the Southern African Development Community, a generally supportive regional body.

"They left out everybody who gave them a negative report," said University of Zimbabwe political scientist John Makumbe.

"Essentially it says the regime has something to hide, that it can't stand close scrutiny," Makumbe said in a telephone interview from the United States, where he is a guest lecturer at Michigan State University.

Those excluded include the European Union, the United States, the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa, the South African Council of Churches and the SADC Parliamentary Forum — the only African mission to condemn the 2002 presidential elections.

If the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front wins an election endorsed by his hand-picked observers, Makumbe said Mugabe will claim legitimacy and expect African countries to support the assertion.

European Union countries imposed sanctions on Mugabe and his ruling elite ahead of the 2002 vote after the head of the EU observer mission was expelled from Zimbabwe.

The United States, Australia and Canada, among others, followed with sanctions citing manipulation of the elections, human rights violations and Zimbabwe's refusal to restore the rule of law.

Mugabe has moved to limit criticism and has instituted some electoral reforms that most independent observers have dismissed as too little too late.

Former President Jimmy Carter, whose Atlanta-based Carter Center monitors elections around the world, told reporters during Mozambique's polls in December that the center could not observe votes in Zimbabwe.

"Zimbabwe is a disgrace," said Carter, referring to the country's electoral system. "Mugabe declared that the Carter Center is a terrorist organization and asked us to leave."

Mugabe insists Zimbabwe's economic and political problems are the direct result of a plot by Britain and the United States to topple him.

South African President Thabo Mbeki and officials in his administration said they see no reason why the vote won't be free and fair.

"There is a growing suspicion in Zimbabwe that the sole objective of the SADC and South African observer missions is not to ensure the full expression of the 'one person, one vote' principle," but to legitimize a victory for Mugabe's party, said Welshman Ncube, a leader of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change party.

Draconian security laws have been used to disrupt opposition meetings and rallies, restrict opposition campaigning, arrest opposition candidates and supporters, and to deny citizens free access to the political process.

Political violence is down markedly from 2002 levels, but Amnesty International said this week that it continues, along with threats of post-election reprisals.

State media continue to give the opposition only very limited time and access. The government also has used its media laws to silence criticism. Many foreign reporters and Zimbabwean reporters working for foreign publications who could have provided an independent perspective on the election have been harassed or effectively barred from working in the country.

Makumbe believes a strategy designed to give Mugabe legitimacy through the verdict of friendly neighboring states will fail.

"Legitimacy can only come from the right countries, those that have the resources to drag this country out of the quagmire Mugabe has dragged it into," he said.