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real estate generic Bob Dugan of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation speaking on Canada AM on Monday, Feb. 4, 2008.

Housing market to slow but stay strong in 2008: CMHC

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Canada AM: Bob Dugan, Cda Mortgage and Housing
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Date: Mon. Feb. 4 2008 11:16 AM ET

Canada's housing market is expected to remain strong in 2008 despite a predicted slowdown in new home starts.

In 2008, residential construction is predicted to decline to about 211,700 units, from 228,343 units in 2007, says a report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC).

Bob Dugan, chief economist for CMHC, said Monday that the outlook is still very solid despite the declining figures.

"We're at very, very high levels historically," Dugan told CTV's Canada AM.

"We're above 200,000 units now for a seventh consecutive year -- that hasn't happened since the early 1970s."

Dugan said the levels are so high that they will have to eventually come down.

"It's not the kind of level of housing starts that we can sustain for a very long period of time," he said. "I think eventually we're going to see them move even lower still."

Dugan said housing starts will probably fall to about 180,000 units in the next few years -- a reflection of demand across Canada.

Meanwhile, sales of existing homes are also expected to drop by 3.9 per cent in 2008 -- to 499,650 units.

"That's still going to be the second best year ever recorded for existing home sales," said Dugan.

In 2007, about 520,000 units were sold.

Provincial breakdown

Alberta is expected to face a drop in net migrants between now and the end of 2008 -- a situation which will cause housing starts to slow, says the CMHC.

Alberta's housing starts, which were 48,336 units in 2007, are expected to fall to 39,500 in 2008 and 37,750 in 2009.

In Saskatchewan, the province is expected to build on its strong housing demand in 2008.

Total housing starts in that province reached 6,007 units in 2007, the highest level in 24 years.

While demand will remain strong, escalating costs will push housing starts down to 5,600 units in 2008 and 5,300 in 2009, says the CMHC.

Manitoba is also predicted to have strong levels of new home construction this year.

Meanwhile, Toronto will see a pick-up in new housing starts because of booming condo sales, said Dugan.

Quebec, which saw housing starts push up 1.4 per cent to 48,553 units in 2007, will see a slight shift downwards to 46,500 units in 2008 and 45,375 in 2009.

In New Brunswick, high mortgage costs, a slower economy and more choice in the resale market is expected to slow new home construction.

Nova Scotia is also expected to see a drop in housing starts in 2008 -- down from 4,750 in 2007 to 4,550.

Overall, Dugan said Canada's housing market has not been hit too hard by the sub-prime mortgage crisis south of the border.

"It has dampened things a little bit but it's still a very buoyant outlook," he said.

For a full list of the report's findings click here.

Comments are now closed for this story

joe
said

Doug you should have been becuase a trademan, you hit the nail on the head.


canadian
said

What we have now is housing bubble. If the increase of housing price was based on increase of the income it would be a realistic increase, but because it is based on supply and demand I would say it is a bobble. Especially, by looking at who is buying? Most of the home buyers are buying their houses because they are expecting it to go up in price. Well, I call them investors. If you buy a house just because it is going to go up in price that means you are an investor. People who are not buying houses now are being realistic. In 2002 the minimum wage was $6.85 and you could buy town house for 17500 in Burlington, ON. Now the minimum wages are $8 and the price of the same house $27500. Do you call that a bubble?


Uncertain
said

Maybe I'll become a realtor while the going is good. I can flood the town with offers to sell peoples' houses for them, just like the dozen or so who pop their cards into my mailbox every couple of weeks. Meantime, I'll sign up a few to sell, having added 10% to the estimated value of the property, and persuade all the potential buyers to overbid on the property and thus raise my commission. Two or three of those a month ang I'll have a nice six-figure income.

Or maybe I'll just sell off my own property. After all, realtors have increased its value by over 100% in the last five years. The cash realized, invested properly, will give me 75% of an apartment rental, and the remaining 25% will be covered by 10% of my current mortgage payments.

Now, what should I do. . .


Ed
said

CMHC has a bigger surplus than the federal Goverment. As prices have risen over the past several years the premiums charged by CMHC have come down. I am not aware of another insurer who has taken the same action in the face of rising profits or surpluses.


brenda
said

This is very simple really, if you want to put money into your own property for your own future, that's up to you.

If you just want to rent and put money into someone else's future, thats also up to you.

We've been buying and selling homes now for over 30 years, and have never regretted owning..we like being our own boss!


Ian M
said

Gee thanks for explaining insurance to me Derek. I realize they have to pay out on some of their clients but they don't operate in the Red. Besides they only pay out on money lost. Subtracting payments made, sale of seized property they aren't on the hook for a whole lot. I'm sure there are a few that they pay big on but for the most part I'm sure they get off quite easily. Anyway I don't think CMHC is trying to inflate the market to make money I am just saying that they aren't in it to break even. I live in Saskatchewan and I can name several Government agencies which are making money. If they were all there just to help the citizens the fees would be considerably less.


DW
said

Derek
You are correct that CMHC is a government agency, but you're wrong to think that they do not have a vested interest. The government housing they hold is rented out at market value, so there is your vested interest.


Flo
said

If you don't feel the price is fair, don't buy. Supply & demand dictates the market. Neither the report by CMHC nor comments by a few individuals is going to make a difference on the housing price. Doug is right, pay rent if you like but putting money in a black hole is not smart, no matter how you look at it.


Steve in Moncton
said

Real Estate Companies, Real estate salespeople, mortgage brokers, bank, and credit unions.....everyone in those areas gain from high prices....more commissons, more interest charges....everybody's pockets get filled...well, except for the home purchaser, of course, who has to dig a little (or alot) deeper.


Cash is King!
said

Doug,

If you are old enough, you might remember what the many Real Estate "corrections" were like in Canaada.

Like the last one in 91-92 during the recession and how it wiped 20% off the price of a home and many walked away from their purchse. If you had a shred of economic knowledge you would know that Real Estate, much like the economy is cyclical and there are BOOMS then BUST and then over again.

Most economists agree that this Recession will be worse and deeper than 91-92 so you would have to be a fool to buy a house now.


Doug
said

Well,I'm old enough that I'm starting to think about early retirement.And all my life I've seen people spending hard earned money on rent while they wait for prices of "over inflated" homes to go down.I think only a complete collapse of our economy could cause that.
The 3000 sq.ft. houses of today not only cost a lot more to build than the 1200 sq.ft. bungalows our forefathers built,but the land they occupy is getting scarcer and scarcer.
In fact,if you move out of the city,there are lots of very inexpensive homes in B.C.
As to the cost of mortgages,I wonder who loans out money for free.If I have savings,I want to get paid interest.The only way that happens is if someone else wants to borrow those savings,and is willing to pay me for the risk I take.
Buying a house is a tough task.But most who have risen to the challenge eventually reaped some benefits for that effort.The rest sit back and whine "it's too hard".


Derek
said

Ian, as an insurer, if more people default on their mortgages because of CMHC information, the CMHC will have to PAY millions.


Canada Housing Bubble
said

Anyone can see the the Real Estate market in Canada is a huge bubble waiting to go POP!
As the US falls in recession and Canada follows suit the long overdue housing correction in Canada will happen and the suckers that just bought a house will understand what it means to be "upside down" on a mortgage.


GP
said

The Real Estate sector is one of the most self-serving groups there is. These stats could be cooked a million different ways, but certainly cannot be counted on to reflect the realities of the market. Garbage in…garbage out.


Ian M
said

UHHHH.. the CMHC makes millions insuring mortgages, the higher the prices the more people need insured mortgages. As prices go up it is hard to get ahead so many people require insurance on thier 2nd and 3rd houses. CMHC makes tons of cash off this.


Housing prices are over inflated...
said

Prices are still a WAY TOO HIGH across the board in this country. The ONLY reason they have been where they are is the wannabes chase the crowd forcing prices up. There is no way many of these homes on the market are worth anywhere what they are asking. A quarter of a million bucks for a crummy townhouse? I don't think so. I'll invest in the resource market and rent and be better off in five years guaranteed.


alberta#1
said

Historically, the CMHC forecasts are always all over the place.
Especially in Alberta, CMHC were too conservative, mostly always being short on growth, etc. Wouldn't surprise me if CMHC is proven wrong again this year!


Derek
said

Brian from Halifax, the CMHC has no invested interest in keeping the housing market high.

They're a government agency.


Brian from Halifax
said

Interesting how it is always the housing/mortgage industry pushing the idea that housing sales and prices will remain strong despite evidence that the bubble should be about to burst...I suppose you can't blame them from trying to convince a few more suckers that it is still a good time to buy real-estate and that prices will continue to increase...I see this as nothing than a self-interest lobby trying to keep their products prices artificially inflated.


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