Keep calm and spread on.

That's the message the Canadian Dairy Commission has for the nation's butter enthusiasts as Norway copes with a serious shortage of the golden spread.

"It would be extremely surprising to see a butter shortage in Canada," says CDC spokesperson Chantal Paul.

Proverbial alarm bells rang over the security of butter stocks last week when Norway made headlines for depleting its stockpiles just before Christmas.

As a result, the Scandinavian country has seen its butter prices soar. The steep costs reportedly tempted a not-so-slick-handed smuggler to try entering the country with bricks of black-market butter.

Back in Canada, Paul says dairy aficionados need not fret about the nation's butter supply. She says the country's reserves are safe thanks to a lot of vigilance and a little bit of math.

"What we look at is how much butter fat Canada is going to need in the next 12 months," she explains.

Using a little something called a "disappearance calculation," Paul says the CDC is able to anticipate demand and issue a quota for butter production.

Government numbers indicate Canada produced more than 80 million kilograms of butter last year; a figure that Paul says is carefully conceived and includes a contingency plan.

"We always have a buffer with the butter stocks," she says. "If we underestimated demand and didn't produce enough milk then we'll put the stocks back on the market."

There is a certain amount of butter Canada has to buy due to World Trade Organization regulations, but otherwise Paul says the country doesn't need to import the slick stuff.

Hypothetically, she says that would only happen in the event of a Great Canadian Butter Shortage – something Paul says she's yet to see in her nine-year career with the CDC.

Dairy insiders have been quick to blame Norway's buttery crisis on a number of factors including a wet summer that hindered milk production and the growing popularity of a low-carb, high-fat fad diet.

Dieters and unseasonable weather conditions aren't exclusive to Nordic nations, so what is it that makes Paul so confident in Canada's butter supply?

Her answer lies in Canada's size, not its stockpiles.

Geographically, Paul points out that Canada is larger than Norway, which allows the country to spread out production and have one area compensate for another if need be.

"It's very unlikely that you're going to have bad weather from sea to sea in one particular year," she says. "So that kind of spreads the risk a little bit and reduces it."

However, food insecurity expert Reg Noble is less confident about Canada's ability consistently stock shelves with butter – let alone any product -- year after year.

He points out that the global food distribution system runs on a "just-in-time" basis, meaning that a small hiccup on the manufacturing or transportation end could trigger a sudden shortage.

"If there's a disruption in production at the other end of the food chain or if there's anything in between…then we would have a serious problem," he told CTV News Channel last Wednesday.

Statistics suggest Canadian butter production has been relatively predictable. Whether it's salted or calorie reduced, Paul says demand tends to peak around Christmas baking season and dip in the spring.

Production did drop more than 8,100 metric tons between 2005 and 2006, a decline that Paul says might have happened because of a persistent heat wave in Ontario and Quebec around that time. Cows, as it turns out, don't take too kindly to hot and humid situations.

Bill Mitchell, a spokesperson for Dairy Farmers of Ontario, says it's natural for Canadian butter stocks to fluctuate a bit.

Overall, he says it's unlikely that Canadians will find themselves at a loss for the fatty milk byproduct. But as butter prices soar in Norwegian grocery stores and peddlers flood into online marketplaces, Mitchell hasn't ruled out any unforeseen circumstances.

"The demand is very predictable, the supply is very predictable," he says. "Having said that, nobody can ever say anything's impossible."