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Nanos poll tracking the federal party's support from 2002 through 2011. (CTV) Jack Layton

Tory, NDP popularity dips, Liberals up: poll

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CTV News Channel: Dan Brock, strategist
Dan Brock, a Liberal strategist, says he is not surprised by the new poll numbers and discusses whether Bob Rae is responsible for rise in the Liberal's popularity.
CTV News Channel: Nik Nanos, Nanos Research
The president of Nanos Research says the NDP's slide is all about Jack Layton's temporary absence, which is cause for concern within the party. He says the inevitable honeymoon is over for the Tories, but it seems as though everything is back to the old norm.

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Nanos poll tracking the federal party's support from 2002 through 2011. (CTV) Jack Layton

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Nanos poll tracking the federal party's support from 2002 through 2011. (CTV)

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Date: Sun. Aug. 7 2011 10:01 PM ET

Both the Conservatives' and the NDP's popularity have waned since the federal election in May, while Liberal support has risen, a new Nanos poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail suggests.

The Tories' support from potential voters has dipped to 36.2 per cent, while the NDP and the Liberals are statistically tied, at 26.8 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively.

While the NDP's support in Quebec remains strong, it appears to have weakened after party leader Jack Layton took a leave of absence to undergo treatment for a new cancer.

NDP support in Quebec sits at 34.2 per cent. The NDP took nearly 42 per cent of the popular vote in Quebec during May's federal election.

Pollster Nik Nanos says Layton's absence hurts the NDP in Quebec, because of his personal popularity there.

"What we are seeing . . . is a possible negative wake for the New Democrats with (Layton's) announcement," he said. "We are seeing the Liberals' numbers moving up as a result.

"If we rewind to the last election, in Quebec, it was about Jack Layton, his charisma, his policy and his charm. He really swept the province as a result. Quebec is going to be a key region to watch in terms of those NDP numbers . . . as a result of Jack Layton not being active."

The Liberals poll numbers are better than they were in the recent federal election, but Nanos says that may not be because of a change in leadership.

"This is more of the Liberals being a parking space (for voters)," Nanos said, suggesting the Conservatives focus on ideological issues like crime and the gun control registry could be driving voters to the Liberals.

While the Liberals' fortunes have risen under his leadership, Bob Rae appears to have little to brag about personally as he ranks far below both Layton and Harper on the Nanos Leadership Index.

The index ranks leaders on the issues of trust, vision for Canada and competence.

Layton has a leadership ranking of 88.5, Harper trails closely behind at 86.9 and Rae ranks a mere 25.6.

The Nanos survey was a national random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians 18 years of age and older. It was completed between July 25 and August 2, 2011.

The statistics of a random sample of 1,203 respondents are accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. For 1015 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Comments are now closed for this story

Frank, Canada
said

Aha, look at this -its a miracle: liberals are rising in the nanos poll while conservatives & ndp are going down nanos is trying, once again, to promote their beloved liberals- except that the public is not so easily tricked - we have learned not to trust pollster propaganda.


ouifyg
said

Who cares about the liberals and NDP. I always vote conservative so all other points of view are irrelevant. The media should stop giving the liberals and NDP so much attention and focus only on the conservative propaganda. That's what us Canadians really want, right?


Josh P
said

Lucky we're no longer in a minority government situation. With this minor uptick the Libs would already be spouting off and trying to force another election.


MARG MM
said

Steve....Looks like you've been "sold" on the declining crime nonsense. Ever pick up a newspaper or watch the news. If crime is declining why are there murders, assaults, robberies, not to mention white collar crime on a daily basis?? I guess it must feel better to "stick your head in the sand" rather than face the truth. Statistics can be "skewed" to make things look better than they really are. I wouldn't call 27% a big rise for the Liberals, plus they are still nearly 10 points behind the Conservatives. It is a no brainer that the NDP have lost support. Anyway, this is all irrelevent at this time, as there won't be an election for 4 years or so.


Steve in Vancouver
said

Give Nanos a medal for his hard work with polls. Dictator Harper is out of the country. Don't let him back in. Socialist Bob wants to be leader put him in charge. Canajans are stupid if they don't do this. Long live the polls. Resurrect the Titanic. Bring the Libs back.


Ontario Wonders
said

Don't want to rain on their parade but the obvious challenges now faced by the NDP appears to be a major factor causing in my mind, the illusion of Liberal gains. No time to get complacement. Also, the choice of Rae for the interim period may help from managing the crisis for the Liberals but their major goal will be to find a strong, charismatic leader to take them out of the wilderness. Truthfully, looking over the current field, it will take some digging to uncover the gem they need.


Ted from Toronto
said

NDP will sink even farther when the true infiltration of the separatists comes to the surface. Liberal popularity is irrelevant, even a bit amusing, given the small number of MPs and lack of leadership. I agree with George V. What criteria could anyone use to come up with such poll results? I think only Harper haters were polled. We'll know for sure four years from now.


Jerry in Calgary
said

My dog could have predicted this downward popularity resulting from this terrible decision on the part of Jack Layton. This continuing wall of silence on the part of the NDP is only going to ensure that things will get worse for the NDP. The Conservatives need not worry as their numbers will remain relatively constant as they always have for the most part. The NDP party of Canada is..."no longer"... for it has been now officially hijacked by Quebec. Make no mistake about this. Jack Layton has misused the trust of his NDP voters and it will cost the NDP dearly. The NDP Party is now what the Block used to be........nothing but a regional one at best. Too bad the Liberals could not get their act together for they would have benefited greatly....but as it is now..."forget about them". Come 2015.....the Conservatives are the ones who will prove to Canadians that they are the ones that are deserving and still trustworthy of our votes. A Nichole Turmel or Bob Rae....com'n.....who are you kidding me........!


Doug ^^^ BC
said

I think as we continue to witness the Tory arrogance their numbers will slide to their core. You know, the ones who think immigrants cost us more than they contribute, the ones who can't decide how many billion is enough profit, the ones who believe children aren't worth investing in unless it is to build jails.


geebee
said

It is not so much "Layton's absence" that is hurting the NDP but the individual named as interim leader.This person's links to outright separatist organizations show poor political judgement on her part and the person who promoted her.


rosebud
said

It will be a long time before they rise again. We have another 4 years with Harper ,I am starting to believe thats the reason we are not in the same mess as the USA ,. With LIBS and NDP we would be.


KJ
said

Who cares is right....I want to know why Flaherty just came out last week and announced that Canada will be impacted by the world crisis. For sure Flaherty....where the hell have you been for the past year? Economics and finance are cyclical, impacted by many events some intertwining and as such, you can't blame one event and now spew our economy has now changed directions from what we preached back in April. Ahhh but back to the poll, wonder why the con support has dropped?


GreginHFX
said

No surprise since they had nowhere to go but up.


Greg from Quinte
said

Oh come on! Who gives a damn!!! The election was over in May and we have three years before this is even a peripheral issue let alone important. And WHY do the media constantly give the Liberals attention and voice??? They were wiped in the last election out because they were disconnected and irrelevant, and they remain that way. When they re-invent (or have ANYTHING worth reporting on) then they can have some attention; until then let them wander the wilderness in solitude like they need.


Tom
said

Who cares about the Liberals and NDP we have a majority Government so poles are useless at this time. The Liberals are so low they cant go any lower, no leader, and with Rae "filling in " they will go no where anyway. The NDP are now floundering so things are not so good for these 2 . I just shudder to think where Canada would be if Liberals were in power during the recession and also now because of the USA's problems. Yes we would be in the same boat as the US. The Cons. have kept the country afloat.


Alan
said

Nanos, Nanos, I hope we are not subjected to 4 years of never ending polls. What a waste of space. Why can we not get a story about the release today of a 50th anniversary stamp for Miss Supertest and the late Bob Hayward and Jim Thompson. Now that was a story to make Canadians proud.


James Givens
said

I see the Liberal supporters are giddy with excitement. Good for you. Canadians will finish the Liberal party off in the next election. With the most corrupt party in the history of Canada relegated to third party status, Canada can continue to move forward.


Steve G
said

We still have 31/2 years of tea party governance to put up with. Hopefully there will still be enough pieces of the country left that it won't be beyond repair.


Chris in Edmonton
said

To Ïntelligent Liberal.. I think you need to emove the first part of your name as it is a lie. Rae can't be PM. He is not allowed due to party policy to run for full leadership of the useless Liberal Party.


pat
said

To "Intelligent Liberal"...sure hope you were joking...if not, you are living in a cocoon in La-La Land. These polls mean nothing...there is no election for 4 or 5 years...anything can happen. BTW...Harper got 40% of the vote not 25%.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

With all due respect to Nanos, and CTV, this poll is about as "important" and "valuable" as yesterday's weather report. (We just had a federal election, we're immersed in a period of global economic uncertainty, and the humiliated and downtrodden Liberals have nowhere to go but up.) If anybody should be concerned, it is the NDP and Liberals who have genuine leadership issues to contend with.


Russ
said

From the ashes, the Phoenix will rise. Long live the Liberal Party!


Paul ~ Kitchener
said

These polls are absolutely nothing ,and have no relevence to actual reality. We are in a hiatis from a sitting parliament & polls taken in this period are useless. Our Prime Minister is off drumming up "TRADE" & the world financial leaders are busy studying the market place. So ~ Canada, all is well this day & life goes on.


Kevin
said

The true beauty of crashing in flames to the bottom of the pile. There's no place to go but up. This poll result was inevitable.


Marilyn
said

I agree George just proves how accurate these polls are!


Intelligent Liberal
said

This is excellent news for the future of Canada! The separtist NDP have lost English Canada's support, and Harper is still as evil as ever. Bob Rae will soon be Prime Minister with Iggy returning as his chief advisor and Canada will become normal again.


Big A
said

This news article makes me wonder what reporters have to do all day. This poll has no importance whatsoever as George V points out.The article is skewed to the liberals and blames the NDP but says absolutely NOTHING of what Harper has been doing on any of the important issues It would be interesting to see how the questions were worded.


DM
said

@George V: Of course not, can't you see it's just another liberal plot by the liberal bias media? *cough* ~sarcasm~ *cough*


Steve
said

Not surprising, after many years of mostly liberal government has made Canada a great place to live with a crime rate that has been declining for 30 years. The conservatives were voted in by only 25% of eligible voters that shows Canadians weren't really interested in any of the options. The liberals will find a good leader & Canada will once again be governed by a good strong liberal government. Hopefully Harper doesn't bankrupt the country before we find a real leader.


Sam C
said

Since the next elections is a few years away, poll results now are especially meaningless.


John
said

Their starting point was so low, the only way they could go was up. Until 2015, who really cares anyway?


George V.
said

Parliament hasn't been sitting, nothing has passed or has been worked on since the election. No controversial issues have been brought up . The Liberals still don't have a permanent leader and the polls are saying that the Liberal popularity is up.. It seems to me that the Liberal pollsters are working overtime. I don't believe it for a second that this is a fact.


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