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Number of annual armed conflicts steadily rising

D-Day took place on June 6, 1944. Canadian troops stormed Juno Beach in Normandy. More than 100 Edmonton-based soldiers left for Kandahar Friday, as Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan wraps up in about a month.
D-Day took place on June 6, 1944. Canadian troops stormed Juno Beach in Normandy.

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Date: Sunday Jul. 3, 2011 5:41 PM ET

Economic factors and a rise in the number of national borders have led to an increase in armed conflicts each year, a new study from the United Kingdom suggests.

The report, which looked at wars that took place between 1870 and 2001, found that the average rise in conflicts is about two per cent annually.

Between 1870 and 1913, the number of annual conflicts between pairs of nations spiked from six to 17.

By the time of the Cold War era, there were 31 annual wars between pairs of states. That number grew to 36 per year in the 1990s.

The study's authors say the data is a counterpoint to a common consensus that the world is a more peaceful place than it once was.

"The number of conflicts has been rising on a stable trend. Because of two world wars, the pattern is obviously disturbed between 1914 and 1945 but remarkably, after 1945 the frequency of wars resumed its upward course on pretty much the same path as before 1913," said co-author Mark Harrison, a researcher from the University of Warwick.

While economic factors like cheaper arms may have led to the increase, Harrison stated that a rise in the number of borders has also led to more conflict.

"More pairs of countries have clashed because there have been more pairs," he said. "This is not reassuring: it shows that there is a close connection between wars and the creation of states and new borders."

Harrison, who is a professor at Warwick's Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy, said the rise also carries a warning for the future.

"Our planet has already seen two world wars. As that experience suggests, you can never be quite sure what little conflicts will not suddenly snowball into much wider, more deadly struggles," he said in a press release.

Professor Nikolaus Wolf, from Humboldt University, co-authored the study, which was released this week.

The researchers amassed so-called "pairwise conflicts," which include "everything from full-scale shooting wars and uses of military force to displays of force such as sending warships and closing borders."

While the research didn't measure the intensity of the strife or casualties, the data shows the willingness of governments to use force. Civil wars were not included.

A novel aspect of the research is that the "supply" side of wars is often ignored, the researchers said.

While academics generally look at the "demand" side of war -- such as resource shortages or territorial conflict -- the new study offers a different side. Namely, as weapons get cheaper, war becomes more prevalent.

On the surface, the study also appears to identify a paradox: as countries become more democratic and economically wealthy, the number of wars increases.

In fact, the "readiness to embark on military adventures is scattered fairly uniformly across the global income distribution," the study says.

"In other words, the very things that should make politicians less likely to want war -- productivity growth, democracy, and trading opportunities -- have also made war cheaper."

Comments are now closed for this story

JB in Ontario
said

Absolute power corrupts absolutely.


Jonathan from Saskatoon
said

By the way, where are all the Obamaniacs who predicted "He" would usher in a new era of peace? They're the same ones blaming all the world's conflicts on the US. And more than 99% of said conflicts are barely noticed by either the military or the politicians in the US because they really have no involvement whatsoever. And for all those that like to blame the cheap supply of arms on Americans, wrong again. The most popular weapon for non-allied armies is the Russian Kalashnikov AK-47.


Matt
said

also different wings of religion have seem to become more global and almost every war that has taken place is based around religion. for ex. the entire middle east.


Jonathan from Saskatoon
said

@ hollis Let's count the number of conflicts Canada has become involved in since the Conservative Party took office: 1, in Libya. I know you want to blame him for Afghanistan as well, but it was Chretien that committed so many of our troops to the mission that we had no capacity for peace keeping duties elsewhere, and Martin that couldn't decide where the troops should go to provide security until the only area left was the most dangerous one. Both were responsible for putting our soldiers in a desert conflict wearing forest cammo, driving unarmored econo boxes, and lacking basic equipment like flack jackets and radios that could communicate with our allies so they don't get bombed during exercises.Cretian/Martin was also responsible for our intervention in the Bosnian war. Seems like the Liberals are the real war mongers here, doesn't it?


CraigW
said

The U.S. is getting less tolerant of other world leaders who do not support their economic goals. I wonder who the U.S. will instruct Harper to go after next?


JB in Ontario
said

I think scarcity of resources with a global population increase and economic insecurity is the reason we have a growing number of conflicts.


mike edwards
said

Okay - but where does that old addage fit into the equation that says never in history have two democracies gone to war.


phil2pointO
said

The human race is over... we all lost


hollis
said

it seems the u.s. is always at war somewhere in the world. they should have learned from viet nam they just have to keep there noses stuck in everyboby elses business. hay charlie, harper just tags along once in awhile.


TwoDogGuy
said

A more interesting statistic for me would be the number of armed conflicts per capita. As the population grows, it would unfortunately make sense that the number of armed conflicts would grow with it.


Get This
said

and to super flyman, the U.S. did not exist 2 thousand years ago, there was war back then, in fact, war is a part of life. Greed, power, money, luxury items, hum, all part of it, plus Religions, until the judgement day, as mentioned in the bible, wars will never end.


Get Real
said

We care out everyone's opinion, 6 billion opinion, there will be conflicts all right!! Guess what, there will be more and more till we are no more.


SUPER FIREFLYMAN
said

Weapon sales are good for the U.S. economy. Maybe that's why they're always at war.


Charlie in NS
said

I'm fairly sure that Stephen Harper will get blamed for this before comments are closed.


JPC near Regina
said

Limited resources, unlimited human population...conflict is inevitable...


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